August 19, 2025

Drought Early Warning for the

Lower Mississippi River Basin

Dryness and Extreme Heat Drive Worsening Conditions in Parts of the Region

After a very wet spring and early summer, the last 30 days have been extremely dry across parts of the Lower Mississippi River Basin (Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi) and surrounding regions. The August 12 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) shows Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions covering a large area with pockets of Moderate Drought (D1). Since the release of the August 12 USDM, the area has seen multiple days of extreme heat.

Impacts

Numerous impacts have been reported in the last seven days through the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) system, a nationwide service provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center, based at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, developed in partnership with National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

Reported from Arkansas:  

• “It didn't take long. Things are real dry, ponds are dropping about a foot each day and algae is real bad. No grass, pastures are brown, putting out hay and giving access to fresh water daily. We haven't had rain in about 2 weeks.”
• “Forages in pasture are turning brown. Ponds and springs are low. Haven't had rain in a month at this location.”
• “The dry conditions have heavily impacted hay quality, safe drinking water, and animal wellness. Heard foot trouble and sickness has increased.”
• “My yard went from decent to brown and dead within the last month and a half.”

Reported from northwestern Mississippi:

• “We've had to provide more hay than usual during the summer months because the grass has not been growing at a rate that can sustain our cattle. We use rotational grazing to ensure that we do not harm the land or overgraze areas that would stunt any growth. We also spread the cattle out throughout our levee portions, but the drought has altered the percentage of "feed" that we are able to provide for our cows just through grazing.”
• “The grass in pastures and hay fields are stressed. We haven’t had measurable rain in 6 weeks!!!”

Reported from northeastern Louisiana:

• “Dead dried grass and cracks. Leaves falling off trees prematurely. IT IS VERY DRY HERE!”

Pond drying up in Independence County, Arkansas. From August 15, 2025. Submitted through Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR).

Dead dried grass and cracks in Richland County, Louisiana. From August 11, 2025. Submitted through Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR).

7-Day Forecast and Outlooks

Isolated to scattered showers are likely across the region over the next few days, but the weather is forecasted to turn dry again by the weekend. Early next week, rain chances improve as there's the prospect of more widespread thunderstorms moving in from the west.

The 6-10 day outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures in the southern part of the region and below-normal temperatures in the northern part of the region. Precipitation ranges from above-normal chances, near normal, and below normal.

Additionally, NOAA's National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has issued a Rapid Onset Drought Risk for August 26-September 1 along the Mississippi River between Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

NIDIS will release additional updates in the coming weeks if drought continues to develop. In the meantime, keep up to date on conditions through drought.gov and https://srcc.tamu.edu/.

You can also sign up for drought alert emails. Just enter your address, city, or zip code to receive emails when U.S. Drought Monitor conditions change for your location, or when NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center releases a new drought outlook, predicting whether drought will develop, worsen, persist, or improve in your area. Sign up >

We need your reports!

As conditions evolve, accurate reports on conditions and drought impacts are critical to accurately assess what parts of the region are in drought and what parts are not. Whether your area is currently wet, close to normal, or dry, please consider reporting conditions and any drought impacts you see or hear via the Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) from the National Drought Mitigation Center. If you are already a CoCoRaHS observer, we encourage you to submit a Condition Monitoring Report.

This Drought Early Warning is issued to communicate concern for drought expansion and intensification within the Lower Mississippi River Basin based on recent conditions and the forecasts and outlooks. NIDIS and its partners will issue future Drought Early Warning Updates as conditions evolve.

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