Drought Update

October 13, 2022

Summary

• According to the US Drought Monitor, at the end of August approximately 50% of the state was experiencing drought conditions and 43% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions. As a result of above normal precipitation received in September, drought conditions across the state have improved, but drought and dry conditions persist in the southern half of the state. Currently, approximately 24% of the state is experiencing drought and 34% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions.

• At the beginning of October, streamflows were at normal to above normal flows and the NH Groundwater Level Monitoring Network indicated that groundwater levels had generally returned to near normal levels, except for the Seacoast Region and the Lower Connecticut Valley, where levels remained below average.

• Over the past two weeks the state has received minimal precipitation. As a result, streamflows have been steadily declining and it is likely recharge to groundwater levels has been hindered. 

• The weekly forecast and near-term outlooks support steady or improving drought conditions. The forecast for today and tomorrow indicate the state will receive a good soaking rain. Rain is again forecast for early next week. Total precipitation received over the next five days is expected to be between 2" and 5". The 6-10 day and 8-14 outlooks indicate a likelihood of near normal precipitation and lean toward below normal temperatures. 

• The long-term seasonal outlooks for October, November and December indicate equal chances of below-normal, normal, and above-normal precipitation and lean toward above normal temperatures.

• In summary, average to above average amounts of precipitation over the next three months are needed to fully recover from drought. There is no strong indication as to whether this will happen.

The Message

While there is some indication that drought conditions will remain status quo or potentially improve over the next three weeks, longer term outlooks indicate uncertainty meaning it is unclear if drought will ameliorate before winter.  Additionally, groundwater levels can be slower to recover.

Community water systems and municipalities experiencing drought, as indicated on the U.S. Drought Monitor map, should leave outdoor water restrictions in place.

Private well owners in the Seacoast Region and Lower Connecticut River Valley should refrain from using water outdoors and conserve indoors.  

Drought Conditions and Water Use Restrictions

U.S. Drought Monitor

This week's U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the following:

• 0.81% of the state is experiencing "severe drought" conditions.

• 23.38% of the state is experiencing "moderate drought" conditions.

• 34.34% of the state is experiencing "abnormally dry" conditions.

• 41.47% of the state is experiencing normal conditions.

Water Use Restrictions List

• One hundred community water systems and six municipalities have outdoor water use restrictions in place, impacting approximately 265,400 people. Ninety-six restrictions are mandatory, and ten restrictions are voluntary. 

Hydrological Conditions

September NH Geological Survey Monthly Groundwater Level Report

Sampling of the New Hampshire Groundwater Monitoring Network wells indicates that groundwater levels at the end of September were as follows:

• Groundwater levels in the Seacoast Region and the Lower Connecticut River Valley were below normal and much below normal (0 to 25^th percentile).
• Generally, groundwater levels across the remainder of the state were normal.

USGS Streamflows

• The 7-day average streamflows across the state are a mix of normal, below normal, and much below normal. 

• In preparation for today's storm, some dams have been dumping water causing an artificial increase in streamflows.

Precipitation Amounts

Observed Precipitation Received

Over the past two weeks the state has received from 0 to 25% of average precipitation for the same historical time period.

Forecasts and Outlooks

Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

• The 6-10 day and 8-14 precipitation outlooks indicate a likelihood of near normal  precipitation.

• According to the 6-10 day outlook, below normal temperatures are likely.

• The 8-14 day outlook leans toward normal temperatures in the south and above normal temperatures in central and northern New Hampshire. 

• The seasonal outlooks indicate equal chances of below-normal, normal, and above-normal precipitation and lean toward above normal temperatures.

• The 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates that the state will receive between 2" in the southern part of the state and up to 5" in the north.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast