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Abstract: 具有对外扩张、对内专制两大传统的俄罗斯,历史上多次宪政过程均与战败相关,而战胜则导致专制复归与强化。俄法1812年战争、克里米亚战争、日俄战争、第一次世界大战、阿富汗战争均如此。民主国家与其抱怨其“民主倒退”,不如挫其侵略。正是西方的绥靖,使其在格鲁吉亚、克里米亚、顿巴斯、叙利亚一次次得手,使得普京越来越成为“新沙皇”。有些人被误导以为普京要恢复苏联,其实普京每次侵略前几乎都会大骂苏共。他要恢复的是帝俄再版。这场讲座聚焦于俄国历史上内政与外交之间的张力,并着重强调其对于如今乌克兰战争的启示。
Russia, with its two traditions of external expansion and internal authoritarianism, has a history of constitutional processes linked to defeats in foreign wars, while victories have led to the return and strengthening of authoritarianism: the Russo-French War of 1812, the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, the First World War, and the war in Afghanistan. Instead of complaining about Russia’s "democratic regression", democracies in the world should be frustrated by the Russian aggression. It is the West's appeasement that has enabled it to win again and again in Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, and Syria, increasingly making Putin the "new tsar" of Russia. Some people are misled into thinking that Putin wants to restore the Soviet Union, but in fact Putin almost always curses the Soviet Communist Party before each invasion. What he wants to restore is a replica of Imperial Russia. This lecture focuses on the tension between domestic and foreign affairs in Russian history and highlights its implications on the war in Ukraine today.
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