Happy Friday! Weather-wise, it’s been a relatively good week across much of the Commonwealth, with cooler temperatures in place and some long-overdue rain finally starting to fall. That said, we still need quite a bit more—especially in Western Kentucky, where many areas didn’t see a single drop yesterday. As we head into the start of meteorological fall, here’s a quick snapshot at where things stand.

Drought Conditions Expanding

Starting out, let’s focus on the dry weather. As mentioned above, some areas saw significant rainfall yesterday (9/4), but not everyone was so lucky. Since the latter half of July, the faucet has essentially shut off for much of the Commonwealth. According to data from the Ag Weather Center, Kentucky averaged just 0.97 inches of rainfall for the entire month of August—a stark contrast to what has otherwise been an extremely wet year.

Several stations recorded less than a quarter inch for the month. In fact, the Breckinridge County Mesonet station didn’t record a single drop in August! Overall, many locations ended the month 2 to 3+ inches below normal (see map below).

Curious about conditions near you? You can find a local station using the link provided here.

Ultimately, it’s pretty safe to say that once the official data is released, this will likely go down as the driest August ever recorded in Kentucky. That record currently belongs to August 1925, when the state averaged just 1.48 inches of rainfall.

Thanks to the Kentucky Mesonet, we can see just how dry it’s been. Prior to this week’s rain, many locations had gone more than 14 consecutive days without recording a tenth of an inch. That number climbs to over 40 for a number of stations in the Green River Region and South Central Kentucky. Unfortunately, as of this morning, that streak continues for the Purchase and Western Pennyrile where yesterday's rainfall missed the mark once again.

Drought conditions have been ramping up—something that’s become all too familiar for Kentucky over the past few fall seasons. Stream flows and soil moisture are both taking a hit, and the number of burn bans has continued to climb. As of September 5th, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet reported 38 counties currently under a burn ban.

Agricultural impacts are becoming increasingly visible. Pastures have been going downhill, with some producers already supplementing feed. Late-planted corn and soybeans could really use a drink. And just like previous years, the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are expected to dip into low water thresholds within the next week or two—raising concerns about navigation disruptions later this fall. It’s something to keep an eye on. Below is a look at the Ohio River at Cairo, where the forecast shows levels dropping into the low water threshold in the coming week.

Based on conditions as of Tuesday, September 3rd (the reporting deadline), the latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor (see map below) shows that approximately 57% of Kentucky is now classified under Moderate Drought—the highest coverage since late September 2024. The remainder of the state is largely considered 'Abnormally Dry'.

You might be thinking, wait, didn’t some of these areas get a decent amount of rain yesterday? That’s a fair point—but keep in mind, these maps are only updated once a week. Guidance from the state drought committee is submitted to the Drought Monitor on Tuesdays, and the official map is released Thursday mornings. We’ll see how things evolve with today’s rain chances (more on that below), but based on this morning’s model runs, I’d expect a mix of improvements and degradations in next week’s update.

Speaking of guidance, your input is incredibly valuable. If you have a moment, please share your own drought impacts and photos. Visuals, especially, speak volumes. While the State Drought Committee can analyze maps all day, local perspectives help paint a fuller picture of conditions on the ground. You can submit reports using this link or simply email me at: matt.dixon@uky.edu.

As a side note, if conditions continue to deteriorate, please be mindful of the increased fire risk—it only takes one spark. Here’s a helpful link from Iowa State Extension with prevention and safety tips. Also, Dr. Greg Halich, UK Extension Livestock/Forages and Grain Crops Management Specialist, recently published a timely article on bale grazing strategies during drought. It’s definitely worth a read!

So, are conditions going to get better or worse? Well, it’s a mixed bag. Portions of North Central and Southeastern Kentucky were the big winners yesterday, with several locations picking up more than an inch of rain. That said, not everyone got in on the action—Western Kentucky, in particular, missed out entirely. Even areas that saw rainfall could still use more.

Another cold front is set to roll through later today into Saturday, bringing another round of showers and storms. The focus for higher rainfall totals will be across South Central and Eastern Kentucky, where some spots could see anywhere from 0.5 to 1+ inches (map below). If storms begin training over the same areas, totals could climb even higher—and yes, that could mean flash flooding in isolated spots. Unfortunately, forecast totals taper as you move west and northwest, which again leaves Western Kentucky on the short end. Still, we’ll take what we can get.

There’s also a risk for strong to severe storms. Instability and wind energy are in play, and the Storm Prediction Center currently has much of Eastern Kentucky under a Level 2, 'Slight Risk'. The main threats are damaging winds and the potential for brief spin-up tornadoes. Stay alert, today!

After this system moves through, conditions look to dry out again. In fact, don’t expect much, if any, rainfall next week. Both the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks also lean toward below-normal precipitation—and that’s saying something, considering this is typically the driest stretch of the year. These outlooks take us through mid-September, and the second half of the month still looks uncertain. It may be time to start watching the Gulf for tropical activity, but for now, things remain quiet.

Summer-like temperatures in the rearview mirror? As Lee Corso says... Not so fast!

September 1st marked the start of meteorological fall, and for once, it actually feels like it. This has been a noticeable shift following what will go down as one of the warmest summers we've seen in Kentucky. Aside from the final couple weeks of August, it was a consistently hot summer across the Bluegrass State. We kicked things off with the 15th warmest June on record, followed by the 6th warmest July. Combine those two months, and it was the 9th warmest June–July period ever recorded. The heat held strong through mid-August before finally easing up. While August temperatures averaged slightly below normal statewide, the overall summer will still rank somewhere in the top 15 warmest of all time.

What pushed this ranking more than anything? Exceptionally warm overnight temperatures. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, Kentucky broke two all-time records: warmest average overnight low for both July and the combined June–July period. The culprit? Humidity. Elevated humidity traps heat in the atmosphere overnight, preventing temperatures from dropping. It’s a stark contrast to the dry heat of places like Colorado, where arid air allows temperatures to plummet quickly after sunset.

Speaking of humidity—it was an oppressive summer, to say the least. One of the best ways to measure humidity is by looking at dewpoint temperatures, which reflect the amount of water vapor in the air. According to the National Weather Service in Paducah, this was one of the most humid summers ever recorded for the region. Paducah logged a staggering 446 hours with dewpoints at or above 75°F. For context, the average number of hours at that threshold is just 176—meaning this summer tripled the norm!

Looking ahead, a brief cooldown is on the horizon. Temperatures will dip again this weekend as the cold front sweeps through the region. Expect highs mainly in the 70s, with some spots potentially staying in the 60s tomorrow—a true taste of early fall. But don’t get too cozy. By late next workweek, the heat looks to rebound. Forecast models and extended outlooks point toward a warming trend that could nudge us back into summer-like territory, even as we move deeper into September. For context, normal high temperatures for mid-September typically range in the low to mid-80s, with overnight lows averaging in the upper 50s to low 60s. So while this weekend’s cooldown may feel like a seasonal shift, it’s likely just a temporary detour before summer tries to sneak back in.

Until next time, folks!

Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky horse owners urged to plan ahead as weather challenges hay supply - Jordan Strickler, UK CAFE Communications, September 3, 2025

Drought Status Update for the Midwest - National Integrated Drought Information System, September 4, 2025

Kentucky Pest News - UK Extension Entomology, Plant Pathology, and Weed Science Specialists, September 2, 2025

Kentucky Forage News - September 1, 2025

UK Grain Crops - UK Martin-Gatton CAFE Grain and Forage Center of Excellence

Kentucky Monthly Climate Perspective on Drought and Hydrologic Conditions - September 4, 2025

Prediction remains on track for above-normal Atlantic hurricane season - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, August 7, 2025

Harvesting Corn Silage at the Correct Moisture While Being Cautious of Nitrates - Jason Hartschuh, Ohio State University Extension, August 25-31, 2025

Crop Progress and Conditions Report - USDA NASS, September 2, 2025

Kentucky Weather Alert App

This ad-free app from the UK Ag Weather Center is an excellent resource for staying safe and informed. It provides daily and hourly forecasts, high-resolution radar, National Weather Service alerts sent directly to your phone, and a link to this update. Without any distracting ads, this app can act as another reliable warning source during tonight’s severe weather. Be sure to check it out by scanning or clicking the QR codes below to download the app on both iOS and Google Play platforms.