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Thanks everyone for a great 2024! As we've done in the past, this end-of-year issue highlights EFI's upcoming activities at AGU. For those attending, Tuesday is the big day for EFI, with a poster session in the morning, oral session in the afternoon, and a social 6:30-8:30pm ET at The Delegate bar just across the street from the convention center.
For those considering attending EFI2025 from May 19-22 at Virginia Tech, note the January 22, 2025 deadline for submissions for Abstracts, Workshops, and Working Group activities, Travel scholarship applications, and requests for visa support letters is
We also wanted to draw attention to EFI's recent Nature Climate Change paper "Near-term Ecological Forecasting for Climate Change Action"
A few other things coming up:
- Dec 2 stats methods webinar on STAN
- Dec 10th EFI activities at Ecological Society of Australia: oral session
- Dec 11th EEFI webinar on forecasting wildlife populations featuring John Jackson
- Dec 20 abstract deadline for EEFI session at SIBECOL2025
- Jan 6, 2025 stats method webinar on the DeepForest python package
- Jan 17, 2025 abstract deadline for EEFI session at eLTER2025
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EFI at the 2024 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Conference | |
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We are excited to see the EFI community at AGU in Washington, D.C. the week of December 9-13, 2024! There are a number of opportunities for connecting as a community, particularly next Tuesday, December 10.
Name Badges: We have EFI name badges for individuals who are part of the EFI community that can be attached to your AGU name tag. Find Mike Dietze during the Conference, at the Ecosystem Forecasting oral or poster sessions, or at the Social. And look for others with the green badge!
| EFI Social: The EFI Social will be on Tuesday, December 10 from 6:30-8:30pm ET. We will meet at The Delegate front bar in the Courtyard hotel just across the street from the convention center. | |
Oral and Poster Session: Here is the information about the EFI-hosted sessions. Additional talks and posters about ecological forecasting as well as other presentations given by EFI community members are compiled in this EFI blog post. Let us know if your talk or poster needs to be added to the blog post.
EFI Poster Session:
Model-Data Integration and Novel Paradigms in Ecosystem Forecasting
December 10, 8:30 - 12:20 ET; Poster Hall B-C (Convention Center)
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EFI Oral Session
Model-Data Integration and Novel Paradigms in Ecosystem Forecasting
December 10, 14:10-15:40 ET; 149 A-B (Convention Center)
NEON at AGU 2024
NEON and Battelle staff will be attending this year in Washington, DC with an exhibit booth and many talks and posters. You can check out all the events led by NEON to find where you can connect with NEON. Look for the NEON tower at the Battelle exhibit booth!
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Near-term Ecological Forecasting for Climate Change Action | |
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Ecological forecasts can be used to predict changes in ecosystems and subsequent impacts on communities. There is an important need for forecasts in shorter-term decision-making time periods of weeks and months. Scientists at the Ecological Forecasting Initiative are working to advance the field through a process that enables them to continually update model predictions with observed data in order to improve our ability to foresee what may happen in the future. These scientists are calling on greater investment in these efforts.
Learn more by reading the press release or the Nature Climate Change paper.
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A Modular Curriculum to Teach Undergraduates Ecological Forecasting Improves Student and Instructor Confidence in Their Data Science Skills | |
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Data science skills (e.g., analyzing, modeling, and visualizing large data sets) are increasingly needed by undergraduates in the life sciences. However, a lack of both student and instructor confidence in data science skills presents a barrier to their inclusion in undergraduate curricula. To reduce this barrier, the Macrosystems EDDIE (for environmental data-driven inquiry and exploration) program developed four teaching modules to introduce undergraduate students and instructors to ecological forecasting, an emerging subdiscipline that integrates multiple data science skills.
Learn more by reading the press release or the Bioscience paper.
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Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference | |
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We are excited to bring together the international ecological forecasting community of participants from academia, government agencies, industry, and the non-profit sector to share cutting edge research about ecological forecasting!
The Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference will be on May 19-22, 2024 at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
We are now accepting submissions!
Submissions for Abstracts, Workshops, and Working Group activities, Travel scholarship applications, and requests for visa support letters are now open.
The deadline for the submissions and applications is January 22, 2025.
We will send notifications about the submissions and applications by February 14, 2025 at which time early bird registration will open.
Find details on the EFI2025 Conference website at https://bit.ly/efi2025
The website includes a Conference Handbook and information and links to submissions for abstracts, workshop and working group activities proposals, travel scholarship applications, and details about registration fees, the student presentation award, and meeting logistics.
Workshop Proposals
We invite submissions for workshop proposal for activities that provide topical training, tutorials, and demonstrations for the EFI community.
Working Group Activities
Working Group sessions will focus on specific projects or topical discussions. These can be for the standing EFI Working Groups, for other projects of interest to the community, or for targeted discussions of topics of interest to the EFI community.
Important Dates
- January 22, 2025: Abstract, Workshop, & Working Group submission closes, Travel Scholarship & Visa letter requests closes
- February 14, 2025: Abstract, Workshop, & Working Group submission acceptance and Travel Scholarship recipients are notified
- February 14, 2025:Registration and late breaking poster abstract submissions opens
- March 14, 2025: Early bird Registration closes
- April 14, 2025: Late breaking poster abstract submissions + Full Registration closes
- April 15, 2025: Refunds for cancellations are available until this date
- April 21, 2025: Hotel booking closes for those using the Conference block at The Inn at Virginia Tech
- May 19-22, 2025: EFI2025 Conference
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Call for Papers - AGU Special Collection | |
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Ecological Forecasting in the Earth System - This special collection focuses on the emerging field of ecological forecasting, which involves predicting the future states of ecosystems. The issue welcomes contributions that use novel methodologies (e.g., machine learning, process-modeling, uncertainty quantification, forecast evaluation, digital twins, inverse modeling), interdisciplinary approaches (e.g., integration with decision science, computer science), real-time data integration (e.g., data assimilation, measurements and monitoring to support forecasting), and multi-forecast synthesis to enhance the accuracy, uncertainty representation, applicability, and equality of ecological forecasts.
Accepted submissions to the following journals will be included in the special collection. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences; Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation; Water Resources Research; Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Submission deadline: October 31, 2026. Find details HERE.
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Ongoing Forecasting Challenges | |
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Forecasting Challenges provide an opportunity to create a community of practice that builds capacity for ecological forecasting by leveraging targeted datasets.
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EFI NEON Ecological Forecast Challenge: Funded by an NSF Research Coordination Network grant, this Challenge revolves around five theme areas that span aquatic and terrestrial systems, and population, community, and ecosystem processes across a broad range of ecoregions that uses NEON data products. | Target data:
- Beetle Communities - Weekly forecasts for beetle abundance and species richness at NEON terrestrial sites
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Tick Populations - Weekly forecasts for Amblyomma americanum nymphal tick abundance at 9 NEON sites.
- Terrestrial Carbon and Water Fluxes - Half hour and daily forecasts of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and evapotranspiration (LE) at terrestrial NEON sites.
- Aquatic Ecosystems - Daily forecasts of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and chlorophyll-a from lakes and river/streams NEON sites.
- Phenology - Daily forecasts of plant greenness (gcc) and redness (rcc) at deciduous
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EFI-USGS River Chlorophyll Forecasting Challenge: Co-hosted by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Proxies Project, this challenge provides a unique opportunity to forecast data from the USGS. By participating, you’ll sharpen your forecasting skills and contribute to vital research aimed at addressing pressing environmental concerns, such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and water quality. Target data: River chlorophyll-a at select USGS monitoring locations in the eastern, midwest, and western US.
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Virginia Ecoforecast Reservoir Analysis (VERA) Challenge: Hosted by the Virginia Tech Center for Ecosystem Forecasting, the VERA forecasting challenge is an open forecasting challenge designed to compare the predictability of different physical, chemical, and biological variables across two paired reservoirs to identify the fundamental predictability of freshwater ecosystems. The Challenge includes 11 focal freshwater variables to date with over 11 years of historical data. Data are available in near-real time to train and evaluate models, with forecast evaluation and scores updated daily. Target data: variables include physical (n=3), chemical (n=6), and biological (n=2).
Want to develop a new forecast challenge? EFI has cyberinfrastructure to support stand-alone Forecasting Challenges that allow people to submit forecasts that are checked for alignment with the metadata standards, scored, cataloged, and visualized on a dashboard. There is also shared code available for individuals who want to synthesize across forecasts that have been submitted to those stand-alone Challenges. Reach out to info@ecoforecast.org if you are considering setting up a Challenge.
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Statistical Methods Seminar Series | |
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EFI is co-hosting the fourth round of the Statistical Methods webinar series with the Ecological Society of America Statistical Ecology Section. Presenters provide an overview of a quantitative method in ecology and environmental science, the R or Python code or package related to the statistical method, and common pitfalls or stumbling blocks.
Details and links to register for the calls are available on the webinar page:
https://ecoforecast.org/workshops/statistical-methods-seminar-series/
“Modeling Biological Processes as Stopped Random Walks with R and Stan” by Jonathan Auerbach (George Mason University) and Lizzie Wolkovich (University of British Columbia)
Today! December 2, 2024 at noon US Eastern
Register to join the webinar at: https://bit.ly/3TAWP3D
| Abstract: Many biological processes depend on the accumulation of a specific factor. For example, a flower first blooms in the spring after cumulative temperatures reach a threshold. (This is the widely used growing degree day model). A cumulative sum is a random walk, and thus these processes are examples of a stopped random walk. In this presentation, Dr. Wolkovich will first review examples from phenology in which plant behavior is triggered by accumulations, such as forcing and chilling. Dr. Auerbach will then provide a high-level review of the central limit theorem for stopped random walks. He will then demonstrate how this large-sample approximation can be used to model experimental and observational data in R. Finally, he will discuss how the approximation can fail, and he will demonstrate a non-asymptotic approach that can provide a better fit. | |
Upcoming presentations:
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January 6, 2025 - DeepForest python package and Deep Learning for Remote Sensing in Ecology; Ben Weinstein (University of Florida); Register Here
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February 3, 2025 - Camera Trap Distance Sampling (CTDS); Eric Howe (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry); Register here
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March 3, 2025 - Computer vision and biodiversity monitoring; Sara Beery and Timm Haucke (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); this presentation will focus on Python code; Register here
- April 7, 2025 - TBD
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May 5, 2025 - Distance sampling applications in ecology; Tiago Marques (University of St. Andrews); Register here
Please reach out to info@ecoforecast.org if you have suggestions for R packages or presenters for the April 2025 session.
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Oceania Ecological Forecasting Initiative (OEFI) Chapter | |
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2024 Ecological Society of Australia Conference
📅 Conference Dates: 9-13 December 2024; 📍 Location: Melbourne
Join Nicholas Clark (University of Queensland) and Glenda Wardle (University of Sydney) for the "Advancing ecological theory and management with near-term forecasts: an Australasian synthesis" symposium they are convening on Tuesday, 10th December from 15:30-17:30.
You can find details about this symposium in the list of symposia.
The conference schedule is available here.
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Recorded OEFI Seminars in 2024:
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"Harmful algal bloom forecasting from a land-ocean continuum perspective" by Yan Zheng (Southern University of Science and Technology China). https://youtu.be/AVqTgk-ZwPg
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“Process-based forecasts of lake water temperature and dissolved oxygen outperform null models, with variability over time and depth" by Whitney Woelmer (University of Waikato) in July 2024. https://youtu.be/9vvLzjudaXQ
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“Could the state and transition models concept be a useful tool for ecological forecasting?” by Anna Richards (CSIRO) in May 2024. https://youtu.be/PSrohBgsySA
Find recordings from other OEFI seminars on the OEFI webpage.
Sign up here for the OEFI email listerv to receive notifications about upcoming activities.
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European Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EEFI) | |
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The next EEFI seminar is on 11th December 2024 at 1pm CET.
John Jackson (Spanish National Research Council) will present on "Life History as a Lens for Forecasting Wildlife Population Response to Environmental Change"
Add the call to your Google Calendar or to Outlook with this .icals Import File
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Abstract: Dr. Jackson’s work to understand wildlife population responses to environmental change can be summarised by two key goals: i) predicting which species and populations are most vulnerable, and ii) forecasting how vulnerable populations will fare in a range of future scenarios. In both of these cases, life history provides a crucial lens for gaining insight because it reflects how a species’ life cycle is adapted to its external environment. Here, John will demonstrate the importance of life history in mediating population responses to environmental change, presenting work ranging from ecological experiments in paramecium, to empirical work in plants, and comparative global analyses of terrestrial vertebrates. Finally, he will present his novel application of life-history theory as a tool to forecast species extinction and his plans for future research on this topic.
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EEFI Abstract Submission Opportunities
SIBECOL Session on "Perspectives and Challenges in Biodiversity Forecasting"
🗓️ Submission Deadline: 20 December 2024
📅 Conference Dates: 2-7 June 2025; 📍 Location: Pontevedra, Galicia
🔗 Abstract Link: https://sibecol-aeet-meeting2025.org/Index/11/Call-for-Abstracts
🔗 More on the sessions: https://sibecol-aeet-meeting2025.org/Index/34/Topics
This session will address data constraints, information gaps, and modeling challenges – but also opportunities – in biodiversity forecasting. We will discuss theoretical and conceptual tools that synthesize incoming data, create and validate predictive models, estimate uncertainties, improve data collection, detect trends, and ensure scalability across various spatial and temporal levels.
The aim is to outline current incentives and recommendations for the broader use of biodiversity models for decision support. Additionally, we hope to generate synergies and debate among researchers interested in predicting biodiversity, discussing limitations, and addressing new challenges in biodiversity forecasting and conservation. Attendees will benefit from expert perspectives on innovative solutions and the latest advancements, fostering a collaborative approach to biodiversity forecasting and its practical implementation.
eLTER 2025 Session on "Ecological Forecasting for Integrated Science"
🗓️ Submission Deadline: 17 January 2025
📅 Conference Dates: 23-27 June 2025; 📍 Location: Tampere, Finland
🔗 Abstract Submission Link: https://elter-ri.eu/science-conference/abstract-submission-registration
🔗 More on the sessions: https://elter-ri.eu/science-conference/programme#D4
The session focuses on advancing ecological forecasting to support informed decision-making in the face of global change. It will cover recent advancements in iterative ecological forecasting. By merging models, data assimilation, and observatory networks, near-term iterative ecological forecasting provides a powerful tool for understanding how global changes impact biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services.
The aim is to gather insights from across ecological subdisciplines, highlighting advancements in theory and applications that improve the relevance of ecological forecasting for decision-making. Oral and poster contributions showcasing innovative methodologies, data integration strategies, and observatory applications, including those within eLTER networks are encouraged to foster discussions on emerging techniques, challenges, and future directions in ecological forecasting.
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Canadian Ecological Forecasting Initiative | |
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The Canadian Ecological Forecasting Initiative (CEFI) just held an informational meeting on November 25th to discuss the formation of its inaugural steering committee. The steering committee will bring together 5-10 members for a two-year term (renewable) to guide CEFI’s growth by defining short- and long-term goals, organizing initiatives, and assisting with funding acquisition. The committee's first meeting is planned for the end of January 2025.
If you’re interested in helping shape CEFI’s future, please email canadian.efi@gmail.com with your expressions of interest by December 15th. In your email, please let us know why you would like to join and what you would like to contribute.
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Working Group Calls and Summaries | |
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The Working Groups are open for anyone to join at any time. Email EFI to be added to the mailing lists or Slack channels for these groups.
Polls will go out in December to create a new schedule for January to May 2025.
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Theory - Mondays at 11am US Eastern on September 9, October 7, November 4, and December 2
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Translation & Actionable Science - Tuesdays at noon US Eastern on September 10, October 8, November 12, and December 10
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Education - Mondays at 1pm US Eastern on September 23, October 14, November 11, and December 16
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Diversity & Inclusion - Thursdays at 11am US Eastern on September 12, October 10, November 14, and December 5
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Cyberinfrastructure/Methods - Thursdays at 2pm US Eastern on September 19, October 17, November 21, and December 19
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Student Association (EFISA) - Fridays at 11am US Eastern on September 20, October 18, November 15, and December 20
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EFI Steering Committee
The majority of the recent Steering Committee call focused on discussing the pros and cons of potential fiscal sponsors to support the organizational, fiscal, and legal sustainability of EFI. The group had a deep dive specifically into four options, after which the group voted unanimously to move forward with the application process for one of the options. Once the application material is developed, there will be additional calls with the potential sponsor to finalize details and make sure the Steering Committee is still in agreement with moving forward as a fiscally sponsored project. The Steering Committee is excited with this move forward for the community.
Ecological Forecasting Initiative Student Association (EFISA)
On the November call, participants shared tools they have found useful in their research or tools they planning to use. The group is moving toward finalizing a name change to highlight that this working group is not just for official students, but also for individuals who are early in their career or early in their process of learning about forecasting.
Nominations just closed for EFISA co-chair positions. Meghan Beatty (University of Florida) will be rotating off soon and elections are coming up for a new chair to join Kayode Oshinubi (Northern Arizona University) and Drew Villeneuve (University of New Hampshire).
Monthly EFISA meetings this semester are held the third Friday of each month at 11am ET/8am PT/3pm UTC (google and .ics). As always, check out the #students channel on EFI's Slack group or email EFISA co-chairs Meghan, Kayode, or Drew for more information.
Theory & Synthesis
Bilgecan Sen (University of Maryland) led the November Theory working group discussion on a 2019 Trends in Ecology & Evolution paper by Ryo et al. that focused on the jargon about time series analyses. During the call, Jonathan Borrelli (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) shared the Isles & Pomati 2021 paper that applies concepts from the Ryo et al. paper. The group also spent time discussing empirical dynamic models (EDMs) and considering if predictability for short term forecasts is related to or influenced by predictability for long term forecasts.
Translation & Actionable Science
The Translation working group discussed ideas for abstract, workshop, and working group proposals for the EFI2025 Conference. The goal for the conference is to share the tutorial and interviews the group has been working on to highlight ways to co-produce forecasts with partners or forecast users. The group also provided feedback to Kira Sullivan-Wiley (The Pew Charitable Trusts) who is working to set up a Distributed Leadership Committee which will help spread leadership and decision making across the EFI community. Although tangential to the Translation working group's main priorities, the discussion provided an opportunity for the group to consider ways to keep track of working group activities and simultaneously provide people new to the group information opportunities for participation.
Education
During the November Education working group call, Rachel Torres (Cal Poly Humboldt) shared her experience working with students to use story maps to describe their research projects. This included the pros and cons of the story map technology. The group also reviewed a draft outline for a blog post about reviewing code and discussed a future project to provide information about all of EFI's GitHub project repositories to make the code more accessible to the broader community.
Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
The DEI working group spent time supporting each other following the election in the US and sharing what things currently are bringing them joy. They also discussed three articles that describe how DEI efforts in the US have been eroded over the past few years to help think about how to move forward with DEI efforts in education, research, and forecasting. A key action identified is the need to continue to build relationships and support underrepresented individuals and communities.
Methods & Tools and Cyberinfrastructure
The Cyberinfrastructure and Methods working group discussed ideas for abstract, workshop, and working group proposals for the EFI2025 Conference. The goal for the conference is to roll out a working version of the spatial forecast challenge to assess wildfire recovery. John Smith and Will Hammond (Montana State) are working on adding two parametric models and getting the GitHub Actions running for the challenge. David Durden (NEON) is working on a function to bring in the Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 product to provide an alternate means of assessing recovery in addition to the current MODIS leaf area index (LAI) target data. Brittany Barker (Oregon State University) is looking into additional sites to add to the challenge.
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EFI Logos
The EFI logos are available for people to use in presentations.
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EFI Slack Group
The EFI Slack Group provides an outlet for the group to share ideas and conversations on the day-to-day timescale. This is a great resource for real-time updates and discussions for Working Groups, the NEON Ecological Forecast Challenge, new papers, job postings, and funding opportunities.
Email EFI to request access to the Slack Group.
#funding and #jobs Channels
As a reminder, you can post and view funding and job opportunities to the EFI Slack. If you are not on Slack, you can still share opportunities by emailing the information to info@ecoforecast.org.
Funding opportunity -
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NASA ROSES A.60 ECOLOGICAL CONSERVATION NSPIRES - Solicitations Summary. This program element solicits proposals for projects that apply to Earth observations to improve or develop decision-making activities in ecological conservation and management. Any area of ecological conservation is welcome (e.g., invasive species, protected area management, fisheries or wildlife management, habitat restoration, ecosystem services, rewilding, biodiversity protection). Notices of intent are due February 14, 2025, and proposals are due March 14, 2025.
Jobs posted with upcoming due dates
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Shop for EFI Gear
You can get your own shirt, magnet, notebook, and more from the EFI Store, https://ecoforecast.threadless.com/. Proceeds generated from the sale of products will be used to support EFI awards and activities. We have kid-size shirts and baby onesies for all those future ecological forecasters!
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December 2, 2024: Statistical Methods Seminar - Modeling biological processes as stopped random walks with R and Stan
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December 9-13, 2024: Ecological Society of Australia (ESA) Conference, Melbourne, Australia
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December 10, 2024: OEFI-hosted ESA Symposium: Advancing ecological theory and management with near-term forecasts: an Australasian synthesis
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December 9-13, 2024: American Geographers Union (AGU) Conference, Washington, D.C., USA
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December 10, 2024: EFI-hosted AGU oral and poster sessions: Model-Data Integration and Novel Paradigms in Ecosystem Forecasting
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December 11, 2024: European EFI Chapter Seminar - Shane Morris, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna
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December 20, 2024: Abstract submission closes for the "Perspectives and Challenges in Biodiversity Forecasting" session at the SIBECOL Conference
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January 6, 2025: Statistical Methods Seminar - DeepForest python package and Deep Learning for Remote Sensing in Ecology
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January 8, 2025: European EFI Chapter Seminar - Nigel Yoccoz, Artic University of Norway
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January 17, 2025: Abstract submission closes for the "Ecological Forecasting for Integrated Science" session at the eLTER Conference
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January 22, 2025: Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference Abstract, Workshop, and Working Group submissions and Travel Scholarships due.
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February 3, 2025: Statistical Methods Seminar - Camera Trap Distance Sampling
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February 12, 2025: Viktoriia Radchuk, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
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February 14, 2025: Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 registration and late-breaking poster submission opens.
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March 3, 2025: Statistical Methods Seminar - Computer vision and biodiversity monitoring
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March 12, 2025: Iris Oberklammer, BOKU - University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
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March 14, 2025: Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 early bird registration closes
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April 7, 2025: Statistical Methods Seminar - Topic TBD
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April 14, 2025: Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 full registration and late-breaking poster submission closes
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May 5, 2025: Statistical Methods Seminar - Distance sampling applications in ecology
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May 14, 2025: Mikhail Sofiev, Finnish Meteorological Institute
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May 19-22, 2025: Ecological Forecasting Initiative 2025 Conference at Virginia Tech
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June 2-7, 2025: "Perspectives and Challenges in Biodiversity Forecasting" session at the SIBECOL Conference, Pontevedra, Galicia
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June 23-27, 2025: "Ecological Forecasting for Integrated Science" session at eLTER 2025, Tampere, Finland
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