In this week’s recap: Stocks rally, despite recession concerns.
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Prospects of cooling inflation powered a rally in stock prices last week despite growing recession concerns.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 6.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 7.49% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged 0.78% higher.1,2,3

STOCKS BOUNCE
Declining energy and food prices and falling bond yields signaled a potentially improving inflation outlook, buoying investor sentiment. The rally in stocks was most powerful on the first and final trading days of a holiday-shortened week. Stocks turned a bit choppy mid-week as investors digested Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate appearance but resumed their momentum on Thursday and rallied Friday as rate-hike expectations eased.
Though the weekly gain was a welcome respite from the market’s downward trend, declining bond yields and falling food and energy prices can also be interpreted as signs of slowing economic growth, which may represent a headwind for corporate earnings in the months ahead.

POWELL TESTIFIES
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the Fed is committed to lowering inflation and moving quickly to do so. He conceded that a recession could result from the Fed’s inflation-fighting efforts and acknowledged that some of the forces driving inflation (e.g., supply chain, war) are out of the Fed’s control.4
Perhaps the most exciting part of his testimony was what he didn’t say, which was a definitive statement on future hikes. Instead, Powell told lawmakers that he “anticipate[s] that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.” Before his testimony, the Fed published a new research paper that found a greater than 50% chance of recession in the next four quarters.5
Goldilocks economy- A term developed in the mid-1990s to describe the positive performance of the economy as "not too hot, not too cold; just right."
Hello,

At the risk of slowing economic growth, the Fed has driven short-term rates higher to rein in inflation. But it’s a tricky proposition.
 
Raise rates too much, and you may trigger a recession. Don’t raise rates enough, and you won’t be able to restore price stability. The Fed is looking for a Goldilocks moment when its monetary policy is “just right” to create a soft landing for the economy.
 
You may not have noticed, but early evidence shows inflation is starting to slow. I’m confident the Fed sees it, too. However, most people judge inflation by prices at the gas station and the grocery store, so inflation is genuine and painful until those prices trend lower.
 
But I remain an optimist. History shows that economies and markets move in cycles, so I believe the current trend is healthy in the long term. I also think smart economists at the Fed are making difficult decisions following an extraordinary couple of years.
 
Our best days are ahead. I’m excited for the second half of 2022 and expect things will look pretty different by year’s end. Meanwhile, I’d advise taking a step back from daily news for a while. If you like to discuss anything financial with me, I can be reached by
a call to 800-871-1219 or by emailing [email protected]. Hit the Meet with Faye button if you want to schedule an appointment.

Letter citation below
Thanks,

Faye Sykes
CEO, Independent Wealth Manager, CLTC & NSSA
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THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Durable Goods Orders.

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate for Q1).

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.
Source: Econoday, June 24, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
 
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: General Mills, Inc. (GIS).

Thursday: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA).
Source: Zacks, June 24, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
A good will should propose at least a few executors, as there is always the possibility that your first choice for executor might not outlive you.
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Faye Sykes
CEO, Independent Wealth Manager, CLTC & NSSA
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Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.
Please consult your financial professional for additional information.
This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
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CITATIONS:
1. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022
2. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022
5. The Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2022


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