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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's Regional Center on Peace and Security

In its 2025 Yearbook, the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) presents the key issues in international politics: a) the rise of the Global South, as a counterweight to the values and principles promoted by the West, which is demanding a role in a reformed international system with different global governances; (b) the rise of the radical right, in Europe and other countries, and how it manages to normalize its agenda in the political debate; (c) the "age of insecurity", physical, emotional and psychological, fueled by the imbalances of globalization, inequalities, the technological revolution and the fear of climate change, among others.

The radical right not only affects domestic debates and agendas but poses a more serious danger to multilateralism and global governance, as Monica Herz and Giancarlo Summa point out in New Society. Precisely the defense of dialogue, multilateralism and the search for peace are the main themes of the new book by Brazilian diplomat Antonio Patriota, A Humanist Foreign Policy for a Multipolar World.

In February, economist and academic Jeffrey Sachs spoke about the geopolitics of peace to the European Parliament and called for a change of focus to look at the world as it is: Europe needs to reduce its dependence on Washington, increase trade relations with Russia, have its own foreign policy that allows it to propose ideas in the Middle East, and not consider China a threat.

In this sense, this analysis on how Washington's major think tanks have approached China's presence in this region using a dichotomous approach is of great interest: either China is a threat and seeks hegemony; or its investments are malicious and not comparable to those of the West. Those progressive and conservative think tanks just reproduced the messages of their politicians. The question arises as to whether and how this line of argument could continue to work in the years to come.

In the last few weeks, the traditional U.S.-European alliance bond has entered a nebulous phase, with serious doubts about NATO's future. European leaders have pledged additional funds for defense, but it may not be enough. This increase in defense is coupled with a drop in funding for development aid and humanitarian action for the Global South. Juan Gabriel Tokatlian reflects on the possible impact of Washington DC's policies in Latin America in the podcast Miradas sobre América Latina.

José Antonio Sanahuja uses the concepts of "poly-crisis and interregnum" to characterize a global order in transition since the 2008 financial crisis. The interregnum, as a non-hegemonic stage and with structures in crisis, is more unstable and perhaps more open to the agency of social actors but requires in-depth consideration in the long term.

Precisely within this general framework, two CIDOB researchers turn their attention to a new opportunity for the EU-Mercosur agreement in turbulent times.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS, London) has published The Armed Conflict Survey 2024. There has been a further acceleration of the crucial trend of recent years towards the internationalization of internal conflicts. Civil wars remain the dominant form of conflict worldwide but are increasingly determined by the intervention of regional and global powers pursuing their strategic interests. This trend is due to the growing competition between great powers and the more assertive foreign policy stances of some emerging states, in a context of increasing geopolitical fragmentation.

Regarding Latin America, the IISS indicates that armed violence linked to illicit economies remains widespread, with homicide rates that are almost three times the global average. Organized crime is involved in a range of criminal activities, including human trafficking, environmental crime and synthetic drug trafficking.

Data from the NGO Insight Crime for 2024 show that at least 121,695 people were murdered in the region. These are similar figures to 2023, but with notable increases in the Caribbean islands due to new drug and weapons dynamics.

As it does at the beginning of every year, the International Crisis Group publishes 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025. In a turbulent context, with an absence of hegemony, more actors perceive opportunities in the use of violence, and in violations or disregard of International Law.  

In this context, the new book Negociar la paz en tiempos de guerra, written by the Catalan researcher Vicenç Fisas, who has dedicated part of his professional career to peace and disarmament negotiations in Latin America and elsewhere, stands out. He addresses mediation efforts taking place in the current times of war and considers that almost half of the wars of the last 35 years have ended with a peace agreement, and only 15% through the military victory of one of the parties.

The negotiations that have made this possible are of substantial importance, as are the enormous number of countries, international or regional organizations and specialized centers that have participated in mediation processes. Any negotiation is based on the assumption that the parties are convinced that the time has come to sit down and seek a satisfactory solution to the conflict that separates them.

The newspaper Le Monde has published a dossier (in French) on drug traffickers, with sections on their resources, methods and impacts, the response of public authorities, and the projection in culture. It includes, among others, an essay on the illicit links between Latin America and Europe. In this regard, AS/COA analyzes the Trump Administration's designation of eight drug trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations. The Crisis Group warns that any military initiative to combat them will almost certainly be illegal, and definitely counterproductive. Here they analyze how to mitigate violence in the centres of narcotraffiking.

Lucía Dammert and Carolina Sampó have been following the policies of the fight against drug trafficking for decades in a report for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. In recent years, organized crime has diversified and expanded to other crimes, although it is always related to social, political, and economic factors. The trans nationalization of organizations and crimes requires the adoption of national, regional and global strategies; and a change of paradigms to solve the problems, emphasizing the social aspect, and not only from a military and punitive response.

Will Freeman, from the Council on Foreign Relations, says that to address the challenge of organized crime, the region's presidents and prosecutors must make it a priority to investigate governors and mayors who collude with crime, hold them responsible, and offer protection to those who refuse to enter the scheme. Modern organized crime groups do not need narco-states to thrive, only municipal or regional collaboration. Brazil is leading the way, although interference in local politics is a problem.

The need for more targeted approaches is not limited to illicit drugs but to weapons held by armed groups, youth, and civilians in general. Trinidad and Tobago has declared a state of emergency due to an increase in violent incidents. On February 25, Sergio Aguayo, of the Colegio de México, addressed this issue at the International Forum: Trafficking and Diversion of Firearms in Latin America

Responses, Reform, and Responsibility. The Seminar on Violence and Peace of the same institution contributed to the discussion on firearms in Mexico with this document.

Another study analyzes the role of women in drug trafficking and corruption in Latin America, while this one looks at Chinese vessels and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing off the Pacific coast of South America.

The Pares Foundation (Bogotá) has assessed the status of peace in the publication, ¿Plomo es lo que viene? addressing the war and the negotiations. A summary is found in this interview with León Valencia in Cambio magazine. With more than two years in office, Petro's promises of "total peace," which included negotiating with all armed groups, are on the verge of failure. For Catalina Niño, the links with drug trafficking, the use of Venezuelan territory as a sanctuary and the confederate structure of the ELN explains their change of tack with regard to negotiation .

The Ombudsman's Office revealed in February that there are more than eleven humanitarian emergency hotspots in Colombia. The Global Initiative on Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) denounces the cocaine war in Catatumbo as the most serious situation.

As this article on non-violent action and the process between the Government and the ELN demonstrates, there are many ways to support peace, including social sectors that are not at the negotiating table. It compiles experiences of civil society in mobilizing for peace and its influence on the processes, ranging from helping to “move” the parties to the table to pressuring for relief of the situation of civilians.

In April, Ecuadorians will go to a runoff vote to choose between the incumbent president, Daniel Noboa, and Luisa González, a supporter of the Correísmo movement. Noboa has declared an internal armed conflict, militarizing the streets and prisons and criminalizing protest. All without great results. The challenges for the winner will be immense: to confront the security crisis, defend democracy and regulate extractivism. Precisely, this article talks about resistance in Ecuador, under the banner of Sumak Kawsay (good living) from a post-colonial perspective and in defense of nature and communities.  

Regarding justice, this study shows that institutional violence nullifies attempts to provide reparations to the sons and daughters of femicide victims in this country. There is limited understanding on the part of judicial officials of what comprehensive reparations measures imply for the other victims of femicide: the sons and daughters.

Armed gangs are strengthening their power in Port-au-Prince, the Multinational Security Support Mission is making little progress, and the transitional authorities are in internal disputes. This is the latest UNSG quarterly report to the Security Council. According to Crisis Group, the Council should decide as soon as possible how it will respond to the call for more support to restore public security.

Since the international troops of the UN Mission withdrew in 2017 and its president was assassinated in 2021, as gangs took control, the suffering of the Haitian people has been unparalleled on the continent. In that sense, there is a need to reaffirm that the mission goes beyond gaining tactical advantage, the response is comprehensive and large-scale, and there is a critical component of empowering local institutions.

Several Latin American leaders try to emulate Nayib Bukele, or at least replicate part of his political aesthetics. With insecurity as one of the main social concerns, approaching the Salvadoran president, despite questions about his autocratic drifts and the difficult extrapolation of his policies against gangs, works for some leaders as a sign of commitment to the "iron fist" against crime.

Meanwhile, The Dialogue (Washington D.C.) publishes a series of essays on security policy and rule of law in the region. The latest issue, on Brazil, emphasizes the difference between São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro,  where a change towards policies based on the police, law enforcement and collaboration with citizens is needed, rather than a continuation of the militarized approach.

In addition, the Seminar on Violence and Peace of El Colegio de México has published La fortaleza capitalina. Análisis de las estrategias y políticas de seguridad de la Ciudad de México, 1994-2024, which highlights a path that has not been perfect but has given preference to civilian security and the professionalization of those responsible for it.

Since 2020, Mexico has had a feminist foreign policy that seeks among other things to promote the public presence of its female diplomats, increase their access to and promotion in the diplomatic career, and retain that talent. It is a remarkable step that requires political will and resources.

Professor Juan Gabriel Tokatlian (Universidad Torcuato di Tella) goes further by claiming that the time has come for the UN to have a female Secretary General, who should also be Latin American. There has never been a woman at the head of the organization, and it is the turn of this region.

FES Colombia is cooperating with the Amassuru network (women working in security and defense) on a forthcoming book on feminist perspectives on security in Latin America.

FES Chile has published a study on civilian institutions of police and military oversight in the United States. While interactions with police in the U.S. can be problematic, especially for African Americans, it explores the different types of civilian oversight, their authority, and processes for holding them accountable

In Argentina, dozens of organizations have requested the unconstitutionality of the Protocol that criminalizes protests, which Javier Milei's government wants to introduce, and have asked the judiciary for protection. And they denounce that it follows a concerning trend in the penal system: criminalizing environmental defenders and harassing indigenous communities.

The Institute of Public Administration and Institutional Innovation (APII) of the Universidad de las Américas Puebla (UDLAP) has published the Índice Global de Impunidad 2024, which analyzes the country, state by state, and several cross-cutting issues.

Its director, Juan Antonio Le Clercq, has published on the index itself and on the impact of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the fight against climate change. He also coordinated the Policy Brief The Unbearable Lightness of Climate Justice in the IPCC’s AR6, of the Network of Mexican Scientists for Climate [Red de Científicos Mexicanos por el Clima].

Adam Isacson, a researcher at the Washington Office on Latin America, explains in this interview that "we are in the preliminary phase of Trump's deportation policy, because the government has not yet approved the budget for 2025. While they are at that lower level of resources they are doing as much shock and awe policy as possible. The idea is to scare migrants away."

• Latin American Conference of Peace Research (CLAIP): April 1-4, 2025, at the Universidad Externado, Colombia. All the information here.

• The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC). Although it is not only focused on Latin America, but its scope is also highly relevant. Subscribe to their Newsletter here.
• UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Leading reference on drugs in the world. Annual Report 2024 here. These reports contain exhaustive information, not only on production, but also on transit and impact in those countries, as well as on arrival at international markets and consumption (all of which are often overlooked). 
• The White House Watch: A free service from the Financial Times, with wide-ranging and up-to-date coverage of the decisions being made in Washington DC and their implications both domestically and for other countries. Subscription is simple and the service is delivered straight to your inbox on a very regular basis. Subscribe at this link.
• For a regional and especially international media watch on Washington and the region, the Friday Reading List by James Bosworth (who also writes about the region for World Politics Review). Subscribe here.

Newsletter of the Regional Center on Peace and Security

Edited by Mariano Aguirre and Mabel González Bustelo

Translated by Yenni Castro (Valestra Editorial)

More information: MariaAlejandra.Rico@fes.de

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