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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
Water, Energy and Peace: The Case for a Mediterranean Axis
The Mediterranean region is confronting rising instability amid a fractured global order. As traditional alliances weaken, countries from North Africa to Southern Europe face mounting exposure to energy shocks, debt traps, and external interference. Despite centuries of cultural and economic interdependence, formal integration remains incomplete, stalling efforts to insulate the region from global volatility. Water scarcity looms as an urgent cross-border threat. Fifteen of the world’s 20 most water-stressed countries lie along the southern Mediterranean. Climate models project that by 2040, 250 million residents could face water poverty, jeopardizing food security, urban stability, and regional cohesion. The nature of water systems—shared rivers, aquifers, and climate—demands coordinated solutions beyond national strategies. Energy, meanwhile, offers a route to collective advantage. Europe’s energy transition aligns with North Africa’s untapped solar and hydrogen potential. Projects like the Tunisia-Italy interconnector and the South H2 Corridor exemplify early cooperation that could reshape the regional grid and supply chain. Peace, economic resilience, and climate adaptation now depend on deeper Euro-Mediterranean integration. Fragmentation carries rising costs. A coordinated axis—centered on shared water, energy, and security priorities—could shift the region from reactive to strategic, fostering long-term stability in an era defined by global disruption.
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Egyptian Inflation Quickens Yet May Still Give Scope for Rate Cut
Egypt’s annual inflation rose to 13.6% in March, up from 12.8% in February, driven by a sharp jump in food prices. Despite the uptick, inflation remains well below last year’s highs, opening the door for a potential rate cut after nearly four years of tightening. With real interest rates near 15% and inflation-adjusted returns among the world’s highest, policymakers may begin easing at the April 17 meeting. Still, recent currency pressures and capital outflows — estimated above $1 billion — may temper the pace of monetary loosening.
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African Lion 25: Largest U.S.-led Military Exercise in Africa Kicks Off Across Four Nations
African Lion 25, the largest U.S.-led military exercise in Africa, commenced on April 14, 2025, spanning Tunisia, Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco. The exercise involves over 10,000 troops from more than 40 nations, including seven NATO allies. It features multi-domain operations—land, air, maritime, space, and cyber—alongside field exercises, HIMARS deployments, and humanitarian missions. This iteration introduces integrated cyber defense training and tests next-generation systems like the Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon, reflecting an expanded focus on interoperability and strategic readiness.
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U.S. Says Moroccan Proposal should be Sole Basis for Western Sahara Talks
The United States reaffirmed its backing of Morocco’s autonomy plan as the exclusive basis for resolving the Western Sahara dispute, reinforcing a stance first adopted in 2020. The move further isolates the Polisario Front, which seeks full independence and is backed by Algeria. Washington’s position aligns with recent endorsements from France and Spain, reflecting a broader diplomatic shift toward Morocco. The announcement comes amid escalating regional polarization and limited UN-led progress.
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Algeria Protests France's Detention of Algerian Consular Agent
Algeria summoned France’s ambassador in protest over the arrest of an Algerian consular employee in Paris, calling the detention a “serious violation” of diplomatic norms. The staffer, reportedly detained on April 7, was later released, but the incident has further strained already fragile ties between the two countries. Algiers demanded formal explanations, signaling heightened sensitivity in bilateral relations amid recent disputes over migration, visas, and regional security cooperation.
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Italy Confirms 20 Million Euros for Voluntary Repatriation Program
Italy has allocated €20 million to support voluntary repatriation programs for migrants in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, aiming to manage migration flows and alleviate pressure on domestic reception systems. The initiative, implemented in collaboration with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), offers financial assistance and reintegration support to migrants choosing to return to their countries of origin. This funding is part of Italy's broader strategy to address irregular migration through cooperative agreements with North African nations.
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United Arab Emirates Makes Strategic Investments in Africa’s Oil & Gas Sector
The United Arab Emirates is expanding its energy footprint in Africa through strategic oil and gas investments, targeting assets in Angola, Egypt, Algeria, and Mozambique. State-backed firms like ADNOC and Mubadala are securing upstream and midstream stakes, positioning the UAE as a long-term player in African hydrocarbons. These moves reflect a broader push to diversify supply sources, strengthen geopolitical influence, and reinforce energy security amid global market shifts.
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Chinese Companies Spearhead Algeria’s Solar Drive
Chinese firms are leading Algeria’s push to expand solar power capacity, securing contracts to build major photovoltaic plants under the country’s 15GW solar development plan. With projects spanning Ghardaïa, Béchar, and other high-radiation zones, these investments reflect Beijing’s growing role in North Africa’s energy transition. The deals also signal Algeria’s bid to diversify its energy mix and reduce domestic reliance on gas-fired generation.
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Morocco Seeks Candidates to Operate Africa’s Largest Shipyard
Morocco is seeking operators for a 30-year concession to run Africa’s largest shipyard, a $300 million facility in Casablanca aimed at replicating the country’s automotive export success. The shipyard includes a 244-meter dry dock and a 9,000-ton ship lift, targeting commercial, military, and fishing vessels. With shipbuilding optional in the bid, the government aims to tap into overflow from saturated southern European yards while reducing reliance on foreign naval maintenance. The project aligns with broader economic goals, including easing trade deficits and preparing for a currency regime shift in 2026.
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Egypt and France Shake Hands on €7 Billion Green Hydrogen Complex
Egypt and France have agreed to develop a €7 billion green hydrogen complex near the Suez Canal, with French utility EDF and Egypt’s ZeroWaste Group leading the project. Spanning 40 sq km, the facility aims to produce 350,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually for export and domestic use. The deal advances Egypt’s ambitions to become a regional hub for clean energy and supports France’s strategy to secure alternative energy sources amid shifting global supply chains.
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Tiris Uranium Project – Progressing Towards Production
Aura Energy is advancing its Tiris Uranium Project in Mauritania, focusing on securing water resources, enhancing engineering designs, and obtaining necessary permits. The company has completed hydrogeological studies, initiated basic engineering programs, and engaged with government authorities to ensure compliance. These efforts aim to position the project for a Final Investment Decision in early 2025 and commence production by late 2026 or early 2027.
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China Southern Signs MOU with Morocco's Royal Air Maroc
China Southern Airlines and Royal Air Maroc have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance connectivity between China and Africa. The agreement includes expanding interline cooperation and establishing a code-sharing partnership to offer passengers more travel options. This collaboration aims to strengthen trade and tourism ties between the two regions.
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Egypt Nears Deal for up to 100 South Korean FA-50 Light Attack Aircraft
Egypt is in advanced negotiations with South Korea to acquire up to 100 FA-50 light attack aircraft, starting with an initial order of 36 units. This procurement aims to modernize Egypt's air force by replacing aging Alpha Jets and K-8E trainers. The FA-50 offers a maximum speed of Mach 1.5 and a range of 2,592 kilometers. Its 70% parts commonality with Egypt's existing F-16 fleet is expected to streamline maintenance and logistics. This deal could enhance Egypt's aviation capabilities and strengthen strategic ties with South Korea.
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Turkey, Egypt Strike Deal for Joint Production of Robotic Vehicles
Turkey and Egypt have formalized an agreement to co-produce advanced unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in Cairo. The Kader Advanced Industrial Factory will utilize the engineering expertise of Turkey's Havelsan to manufacture these systems, with Havelsan providing technology transfer and licensing support. The UGVs will be tailored to meet the specific requirements of the Egyptian military and regional operational conditions. Prototype development is scheduled to commence within two weeks, aiming for a debut at the Egypt Defense Expo in December 2025.
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The EV Race Hits the Southern Shore? Morocco, Europe, and the Making of a Mediterranean Industrial Axis
Morocco is rapidly emerging as a strategic hub for electric vehicle (EV) and battery production in the Mediterranean, reshaping industrial dynamics amid rising global competition. Leveraging strategic ties with China and Europe, the nation has attracted major investments such as Gotion High Tech’s planned gigafactory in Kenitra. The EU sees Morocco as crucial to diversifying supply chains through upcoming Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships. Although navigating geopolitical tensions remains challenging, Morocco’s evolution from car assembly to integrated EV manufacturing underscores the region’s renewed significance in global industrial policy.
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No, the Airspace of Niger and Burkina Faso has not been Closed to Algeria.
Algeria and Mali have closed their respective airspaces to each other's aircraft following the downing of a Malian drone near the Algerian border town of Tin Zaouatine. Algeria asserts the drone violated its airspace; Mali disputes this, claiming the drone was within its territory. In response, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—members of the Alliance of Sahel States—have recalled their ambassadors from Algeria, which reciprocated by recalling its envoys and suspending the appointment of a new ambassador to Burkina Faso. The diplomatic rift reflects escalating tensions between Algeria and the AES bloc, which has increasingly distanced itself from traditional alliances, seeking closer ties with Russia amid regional instability.
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Tunisia Under the Influence of Algeria
President Kaïs Saïed's government is facing growing criticism over politically motivated trials targeting 52 opposition figures in Tunisia, with charges ranging from conspiracy to alleged foreign collusion. The proceedings, widely described by legal professionals as baseless, involve detainees held for over two years without evidence or formal judicial review. Many of the accused are elderly or ill and denied adequate care, prompting comparisons to Algeria’s authoritarian tactics. Despite concerns from European diplomats, only Algeria has actively supported Saïed’s crackdown, fueling speculation of deeper influence from Algiers over Tunisian internal affairs
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THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE SWITZERLAND (MEIS)
Russia’s Strategic Shift in North Africa
April 24, 2025 | 10:00 AM — 11:30 AM EDT
Join the North Africa Initiative (NAI) and MEIS for a timely discussion on Russia’s growing influence in North Africa and its implications for regional security, migration, and global geopolitics. Russia’s strategic pivot to North Africa—following setbacks in Syria—has reshaped regional dynamics, from military deployments and disinformation campaigns to its exploitation of migration routes and illicit networks. The session will explore a variety of key subjects from military power projection to soft power strategies as well as Western and regional responses.
To attend in person, please RSVP using the link below. Breakfast will be provided
–▸ EVENTBRITE –
Online viewers can stream this event live using the link below. No registration required.
–▸ LIVESTREAM –
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| The SAIS Middle East & North Africa Club, in collaboration with the North Africa Initiative (NAI) at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University SAIS, organized a focused expert discussion on irregular migration from North Africa to Europe. This event examined the key drivers behind migration across the Mediterranean—ranging from socioeconomic and political instability to environmental stressors and transnational crime—while exploring the human stories behind the statistics. The program included a short documentary. Speakers assessed current legal frameworks, the role of sanctions and state fragility, and offered concrete policy recommendations to address the challenges and opportunities of irregular migration in the region. | | |
INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE ARAB & MUSLIM WORLD | BI-ANNUAL SEMINARS
Geopolitics of the Maghreb
March 18 — May 20, 2025 | 06:30 PM to 08:30 PM
The Maghreb, i.e., Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya constitutes a vast area bordering the rest of the Arab world and the Sahel and an immediate neighbor of the European Union, separated only by the Mediterranean. Since their independence in the 1950s and 1960s, these countries continue to face significant challenges, particularly economic, political and security, which directly affect their stability as well as their development prospects. The objective of this seminar is to study the main components of these challenges while attempting to restore them, both in their immediate context – national and regional – as well as in all the much broader ones – globalization, in particular – which make the Maghreb a necessary actor in world developments.
Classes are held in French.
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STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI) | COMMENTARY / BACKGROUNDERS
Recent Trends in International Arms Transfers in the Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) accounted for 27% of global arms imports between 2020 and 2024, reflecting persistent regional tensions and external dependencies. Saudi Arabia remained the top importer globally, while Egypt and Qatar also ranked among the top ten. The United States continued to dominate as the primary supplier to the region, with France and Italy also playing significant roles.
Despite the high volume of imports, the region's reliance on foreign suppliers underscores the limited progress in developing indigenous defense industries. Efforts to diversify sources and enhance local production have been uneven, with some countries making strides while others remain heavily dependent on established suppliers.
The ongoing conflicts and security challenges in MENA drive demand for advanced weaponry, but the lack of regional cooperation and integration hampers collective security efforts. The data suggests that without a concerted push towards self-reliance and collaboration, the region will continue to be a significant market for international arms exporters, with implications for both regional stability and global arms trade dynamics.
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CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE (CEIP)
How to Advance U.S.-Africa Critical Minerals Partnerships in Mining and Geological Sciences
The United States is aiming to strengthen its critical minerals supply chain by enhancing partnerships with African nations, focusing on scientific and technical collaboration in mining and geological sciences. Africa holds an estimated 30% of the world's critical mineral reserves, yet many regions remain underexplored due to outdated geological surveys. By collaborating with institutions like the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. seeks to modernize geological mapping and data analysis, utilizing advanced technologies such as AI to identify new mineral deposits. Additionally, there's a strategic push to develop midstream processing facilities within Africa, which could reduce transportation costs and supply chain vulnerabilities. This approach not only supports U.S. industrial needs but also aligns with African countries' goals for economic development and value addition. Investing in local workforce training and infrastructure is seen as essential for the long-term success of these partnerships, ensuring mutual benefits and sustainable growth in the critical minerals sector.
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FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC AFFAIRS (IRIS) | MAGHREB OBSERVATORY
Franco-Algerian Relations: Behind the De-escalation of Tensions, What are the Issues?
France and Algeria are cautiously easing diplomatic tensions following a period of heightened strain triggered by France's endorsement of Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara—a move that Algeria perceives as a challenge to its regional stance. The crisis intensified with reciprocal expulsions of diplomats and disputes over the treatment of Algerian nationals in France. Recent high-level engagements, including a phone call between Presidents Macron and Tebboune and a visit by France's foreign minister to Algiers, signal efforts to restore dialogue. However, underlying issues such as historical grievances, immigration policies, and competing interests in the Maghreb continue to pose challenges to a full normalization of relations.
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MIDDLE INSTITUTE
French Embrace of Moroccan Autonomy Plan Underscores Broader Shift on Western Sahara Dispute
France has officially endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan for Western Sahara, aligning with the United States and Spain in recognizing it as the sole framework for resolving the protracted territorial dispute. This marks a significant departure from France's previous neutrality and has intensified tensions with Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front's call for a referendum on independence. French officials, including President Emmanuel Macron and Senate Speaker Gérard Larcher, have reiterated this stance through diplomatic visits and economic initiatives in the region. Notably, France announced €10 billion in investments, encompassing renewable energy and infrastructure projects in Western Sahara. Algeria has responded by recalling its ambassador and expelling French diplomats, signaling a deterioration in Franco-Algerian relations. This diplomatic shift underscores Morocco's growing influence and the diminishing prospects for a UN-led referendum, as key international actors increasingly favor Morocco's proposed solution.
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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Felon Outflanked?
Russia's Su-57 "Felon" stealth fighter, designed to rival Western fifth-generation aircraft, has seen limited deployment in Ukraine due to concerns over its survivability against advanced air defenses. The aircraft's minimal combat use raises questions about its operational readiness and effectiveness. Meanwhile, Algeria, reportedly the first export customer for the Su-57, has also acquired Su-35 fighters, suggesting a hedging strategy amid uncertainties about the Felon's capabilities. This dual procurement approach highlights the challenges Russia faces in promoting its next-generation fighters on the global stage.
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SCIENCES MAROC
Why the EU and Morocco Need Each Other More Than Ever
Morocco has emerged as a vital strategic partner for the European Union, deeply integrated into its economic and regulatory frameworks. The EU stands as Morocco’s largest trade partner, and the Kingdom's alignment with European standards in areas like food safety, environmental regulations, and data protection has solidified its role within the EU's industrial supply chains. Since 1999, Morocco's economy has tripled, with significant growth in sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy. Landmark projects like Noor Ouarzazate and green hydrogen initiatives position Morocco as a key supplier of clean energy to Europe, enhancing the EU's energy security and climate goals. Diplomatically, Morocco serves as a bridge between Europe, Africa, and the Arab world, exemplified by its co-hosting of the 2030 FIFA World Cup with Spain and Portugal. In an era of shifting global alliances and economic uncertainties, Morocco's stability, economic dynamism, and commitment to multilateralism underscore the need for the EU to recalibrate its relationship, moving beyond outdated agreements to a more robust and forward-looking partnership.
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THE WILSON CENTER
Empowering Women to Support Morocco’s Industrial Transformation
Morocco's industrial transformation hinges on integrating women into its manufacturing and export sectors, where they remain underrepresented despite comprising over 40% of the workforce. While women dominate in textiles and agriculture, their participation in high-growth industries like automotive and aerospace remains minimal. Targeted reforms—such as gender-sensitive vocational training, inclusive hiring practices, and improved workplace protections—are essential to close this gap. Elevating women’s economic participation is not only a matter of equity but also a strategic move to enhance productivity and competitiveness in Morocco’s evolving industrial landscape.
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FRENCH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC AFFAIRS (IRIS) | OBSERVATORY OF THE MAGHREB
Pipeline Politics: Algeria, Italy and the Great Game in North Africa
Italy and Algeria have deepened energy and diplomatic ties in the wake of the war in Ukraine, as Rome moved to reduce reliance on Russian gas. The partnership, central to Italy’s Mattei Plan for Africa, allows Algeria to expand exports to Europe while preserving its non-aligned foreign policy. As France loses influence in the Maghreb, Italy has positioned itself as a key player, even as tensions between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara continue to shape regional dynamics.
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ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES (ISPI) | POLICY PAPER
Rebooting Italy’s Africa Policy: Making the Mattei Plan Work
Italy’s Mattei Plan marks a renewed effort to deepen political and economic ties with Africa, reflecting Rome’s broader shift toward sustained regional engagement since the 2010s. Framed as a strategic bridge between the EU and African states, the initiative targets partnerships particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. While still in early implementation, the plan signals a wider European trend of expanding influence on the continent, though outcomes will hinge on alignment with African priorities and long-term development trends.
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EGYPT: ECONOMIC & DEVELOPMENT POLICIES | WORKING PAPER
Global Value Chains in Egypt: Overview, Challenges, and Opportunities
Egypt’s integration in global value chains (GVCs) increased only slightly over time and remains low compared to other developing countries. The objective of this report is therefore to examine the evolution and composition of Egypt’s GVC-related trade flows and to compare these with a selected sample of developing countries. Several key challenges stemming from trade policy, the business environment, competition policy and the quality of institutions, as well as corruption and political connections may explain the relatively weak performance of Egypt in GVCs.
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JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY CHINA | RESEARCH ARTICLE
China’s Interventions in ‘Gray Special Economic Zones’ in Southeast Asia’s Borderlands
By connecting regions, Chinese investment projects overseas have made it easier for transnational Chinese criminal syndicates to carry out illicit activities abroad. China’s response to the damage to its interests, specifically the security of its borders and citizens and its international reputation, has varied. Under what conditions will Beijing intervene and what explains the variation? This study contributes to the understanding of Chinese security interventions and influence abroad, and the conditions that modify its interventions.
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Stay informed.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Deputy Director
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | | Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
![A C919 aircraft operated by China Southern Airlines taxis at Haikou Meilan International Airport in Haikou, South China's Hainan province, on Dec 11, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]](https://files.constantcontact.com/de1a1f11601/42c1df24-9ef3-45c4-b483-15cc7e42b547.jpg?rdr=true)
