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TUESDAY, MARCH 04, 2025

#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#

What Will Sub-Saharan Africa’s ‘Elephant Economies’ Look Like in 2040-50?

ARAB NEWS — Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic trajectory balances dynamic growth sectors against persistent systemic risks. While Kenya’s tech services, Ethiopia’s industrial parks, and Rwanda’s governance reforms drive modernization—energy gaps, poor electrification rates, as well as the reliance on volatile commodities threaten progress. Despite strong GDP growth, unaddressed youth unemployment and infrastructure deficits could undermine a projected 1 billion-strong consumer class by 2040. Institutional reforms, regional trade integration, and skill development could unlock $1.5 trillion annually by 2040, but governance failures and climate pressures pose significant risks. Transitioning from raw exports to value-added industries requires scaling green energy investments like Kenya’s geothermal expansion and Nigeria’s solar grids to avoid climate-related GDP losses estimated at 15%. Gulf and North African investments, such as Saudi agribusiness funding and UAE port projects, aim to secure mineral access and logistics nodes but face scrutiny over extractive practices. Success for the continent will hinge on hybrid strategies: merging AI-driven agritech with infrastructure upgrades, prioritizing equity in partnerships, and tripling green financing to mitigate climate and debt risks.

Arab States Adopt Egyptian Alternative to Trump's 'Gaza Riviera'

REUTERS — Arab leaders endorsed Egypt’s $53 billion Gaza reconstruction plan, rejecting displacement of Palestinians and countering Trump’s proposal. The initiative, developed with Palestinian input, proposes an interim technocratic committee to govern Gaza until the Palestinian Authority (PA) resumes control, contingent on Gulf funding and Hamas’ disarmament. Over 48,000 Palestinians have died in the war; Israel claims 20,000 Hamas fighters were killed, though Hamas disputes this. Gulf states like the UAE demand immediate demilitarization, while Saudi Arabia stresses U.S.-Israeli approval. PA President Abbas affirmed readiness for elections, facing domestic criticism over governance. Israel insists Hamas’ military elimination remains non-negotiable

Tunisia Puts Dozens on Trial for Treason in Case Slammed by UN

BLOOMBERG — Tunisia’s government is prosecuting over 40 individuals—ex-politicians, journalists, and a former central bank governor—on charges including conspiracy against state security and threats to President Kais Saied, with some offenses punishable by death. At least six defendants have faced pre-trial detention for a year, while others are tried in absentia amid heightened repression since Saied’s 2021 power consolidation. The UN condemned arbitrary detentions, but authorities dismissed criticism. Proceedings occur remotely, with defendants barred from courtrooms and security tightened in Tunis, drawing accusations of opaque, militarized trials from local rights groups. Exiled figures like ex-central bank chief Mustapha Kamel Nabli called the charges baseless, framing the crackdown as an assault on political and economic elites.

Tunisia Opposition Figures Stand Trial on National Security Charges

FRANCE24 — Tunisia has placed opposition figures, including politicians, lawyers, and activists, on trials for charges of “plotting against state security” and terrorism, which carry potential death sentences. Critics, including rights groups, label the case politically motivated amid President Kais Saied’s consolidation of power since 2021 and a 2024 re-election marked by imprisoned rivals and record-low turnout. Defendants such as National Salvation Front founder Issam Chebbi and detained politician Jawhar Ben Mbarek face accusations tied to Saied’s 2023 crackdown branding dissenters “terrorists.” The UN condemned Tunisia’s pattern of arbitrary detentions, while the government dismissed international criticism. The trial follows a 22-year sentence for Ennahdha leader Rached Ghannouchi in a separate case, reflecting widening repression under anti-“false news” laws.

France Returns Sole Military Base to Ivory Coast

THE DEFENSE POST — France transferred its sole Ivorian military base, Port-Bouet, to local authorities, ending a 47-year presence. The handover, marked by joint exercises and a security responsibility shift to Ivorian forces, retains 80 French soldiers for training and counterterrorism support through 2025. While Ivory Coast emphasized sustained defense ties, the move aligns with broader regional trends where former French colonies like Mali and Niger have expelled troops. The base, operational since 1978, hosted 1,000 personnel at its peak and played roles in stabilizing crises, including post-2002 unrest. France now shifts focus to intelligence-sharing and equipment partnerships amid regional demands for sovereignty.

Tunisia Breaks Ties with IMF Amid Dispute

THE NORTH AFRICA POST — Tunisia halted all engagement with the IMF, rejecting its perceived encroachment on economic sovereignty amid disputes over austerity-linked loan conditions. The IMF, a key financial partner since 2011, supported reforms during post-revolution instability, but President Kais Saied’s administration opposed measures like subsidy cuts, citing public harm. With inflation, unemployment, and public debt surging, the collapse of IMF negotiations jeopardizes a $1.9 billion loan program seen as vital for stabilization. Tunisia now faces heightened risks of financial collapse without clear alternatives to address the crisis.

Morocco Becomes Spain’s Top Gas Consumer in 2024, Surpassing France

YABILADI — Morocco became Spain’s top gas consumer in 2024, importing 9,703 GWh via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline, surpassing France (9,362 GWh) and Portugal (4,056 GWh). Spain’s gas infrastructure—two pipelines, six regasification plants, and storage—supports its role as a transit hub, exporting 36,084 GWh in 2023, 26.8% to Morocco. Spain remains a major importer, sourcing 131,202 GWh from Algeria, 72,360 GWh from Russia, and 57,354 GWh from the US. Rising Moroccan imports coincide with Spain-Algeria tensions after Spain recognized Morocco’s Sahara autonomy in 2022, prompting Algerian threats to cut supplies if redirected to Morocco.

Morocco Places $2.9 Billion Order for Trains from Three Countries

GCR — Morocco’s rail operator ONCF will invest $2.9 billion to acquire 168 trains from Spain’s CAF, France’s Alstom, and South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem, aiming to upgrade its high-speed and regional networks ahead of co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup. The order includes 18 Alstom high-speed trains tied to a 2023 agreement during Macron’s visit, 30 CAF intercity trains (plus 10 optional), and 110 Hyundai commuter trains. Morocco’s existing 350 km/h Tangier-Casablanca line, operational since 2018, will be supplemented by a planned 400 km Kenitra-Marrakech route. ONCF also announced plans to build a domestic commuter train factory with future export ambitions.

Libya Launches First Oil Exploration Tender Since Civil War

BLOOMBERG — Libya opened its first energy exploration tender in over 17 years, targeting onshore and offshore blocks in basins including Sirte and Ghadames to revive investment after years of political instability. The OPEC member, with Africa’s largest oil reserves, aims to boost production from 1.4 million barrels per day to 1.6 million by the end of 2025. International firms like Eni, Repsol, and BP have resumed operations post-2014 pauses, signaling cautious reengagement despite unresolved governance splits between rival administrations. Current output levels mark a recovery, though persistent political risks challenge sustained growth.

Libya Launches First Oil Bidding Round Since 2011

OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY — Libya opened its first oil exploration bid in 17 years, offering 24 zones to boost production to 2 million barrels per day, up from current levels of 1.4 million. Political instability since 2011 disrupted output, including an August 2023 halt that cut 700,000 barrels daily for over a month. Despite risks, firms like Eni, BP, and Repsol have resumed operations, with Eni securing an €8 billion gas deal in 2023. Libya requires $3–4 billion in investments to reach 1.6 million barrels, nearing its pre-war peak. Exempt from OPEC+ quotas, the bid aims to position Libya as a stable oil investment hub amid ongoing recovery efforts.

Egypt Closes Bidding on 13 Oil, Gas Exploration Areas, Attracting $700 Million in Investments

DAILY NEWS (EGYPT) — Egypt’s petroleum ministry closed bidding for 13 exploration and production blocks, attracting over $700 million in initial investments, potentially doubling with future discoveries. Four Mediterranean blocks, part of a 2024 EGAS bid round, expand gas exploration areas by 23%, with Cheiron entering the region for the first time. Nine onshore blocks target mature field redevelopment and high-potential exploration, backed by EGPC and GANOPE. Expedited evaluations (results within 1–2 months) aim to accelerate investment, with future opportunities planned via open acreage to bolster Egypt’s energy sector growth.

THE DEBRIEF

UNCOVERING NORTH AFRICA: ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Daniel Weinstein | NAI Research Assistant

—

Development & Oversight by Lana Bleik

Egypt

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STRUGGLING BUT NOT CRITICAL-

Egypt has launched a strategic "land-for-cash" deal to stimulate economic growth and tackle fiscal challenges. A $35 billion agreement with the UAE grants rights to build a new city on the Ras al-Hikma Peninsula. Years of economic hardship, exacerbated by COVID-19, conflicts, and trade disruptions, have impacted Egypt severely. Houthi attacks affecting Suez Canal revenues added further strain. Despite these challenges, the economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2025 with support from the IMF, World Bank, UAE, and European Commission. Key advancements include reducing military influence to enhance private investment, boosting investor confidence. Egypt's geopolitical importance ensures ongoing international support to maintain regional stability and economic recovery.

Morocco

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STABLE & GROWING-

Morocco's economic forecast for 2025 is promising, with the Haut Commissaire au Plan projecting a 3.8% growth rate after a 3% expansion in 2024. This positive outlook is driven by favorable climate conditions boosting the agricultural sector, a vital part of the economy. Additionally, the mining industry, notably phosphate exports, remains crucial for foreign revenue. The tourism sector is also poised for growth, supported by infrastructure investments and policies aimed at increasing international appeal.

Algeria

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -IMPROVING-

Despite worsening relations with France and a push to reduce EU dependence, Algeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025. While imports from the EU have significantly decreased, the EU remains Algeria’s largest trading partner, accounting for over 50.6% of its trade. Sectors outside the hydrocarbon industry are expected to see 5% growth, reflecting President Tebboune's focus on economic diversification.

Tunisia

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STRUGGLING BUT NOT CRITICAL-

Tunisia has reduced its budget deficit by $1 billion through higher income tax revenues, addressing a key post-pandemic economic challenge. However, new legislation on check payments and strict banking regulations have created financial uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and credit access. Despite easing penalties for bounced checks, banks' tightened regulations may limit household spending. While inflation decreased to 6.7% in September 2024, persistent issues like low investment, sluggish productivity, and high public debt hinder recovery. Tunisia’s economic difficulties are also shaping its critical stance on Western policies, though it remains reliant on Western financial aid.

Libya

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT-

The Central Bank of Libya and the World Bank are discussing potential economic reforms, emphasizing transparency to bolster financial stability. Libya faces economic challenges due to prolonged political instability and a tough regional environment. Authorities have outlined a 2025 recovery strategy centered on increasing oil production, with an estimated investment of $3–4 billion needed to expand output and support the recovery process.

Mauritania

- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -POSITIVE GROWTH-

Mauritania's economy was projected to grow by 4.6% in 2024, driven primarily by an offshore gas project with Senegal. The economy is structurally transforming, with the service sector now leading over agriculture in economic contribution. However, ensuring a smooth transition and boosting service sector productivity pose challenges. Geopolitical competition between Morocco and Algeria for influence in Mauritania could also impact its economic trajectory, although the precise effects remain unclear.

Produced by the North Africa Initiative, the section above offers analysis grounded in expert research, institutional reports, and scholarly perspectives. It examines the region's economic trends, geopolitical dynamics, and social transformations, providing informed insights on North Africa's evolving landscape.

THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE | MAGHREB WEEKLY SPECIAL NEWSLETTER EDITIONS

—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—

Algeria

Special Country Edition newsletters by the North Africa Initiative (NAI), are publications that aim to give an overview on the political economies, and internal dynamics of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, distilling information from key reports of institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and the UN.

In our last edition, we focused on Algeria, a country whose geopolitical significance as both a global and regional player is at a critical juncture. Algeria's wealth of natural resources and proximity to Europe continues to define its global importance, albeit falling short of qualifying as a BRICS member.

This edition gives an overview of Algeria’s economy and trade, then examines the country’s strategies to diversify its economy and energy mix. Finally, it discusses the political landscape, examining ways the country has been recently fighting systemic corruption, youth brain drain, and the debilitating consequences of consecutive migration crises.

THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & SAIS REVIEW'S THE LOOKING GLASS PODCAST

—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—

The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux

Catch the newest episode of The Looking Glass' "The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux" — part of the first Maghreb Voices Mini Series dedicated to Libya, a collaboration between the SAIS Review of International Affairs and the North Africa Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

Stephanie Turco Williams, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and former special adviser on Libya to the UN Secretary-General shares her expertise on Libya’s social and economic shifts, informed by her extensive career, including roles as acting special representative for Libya, deputy special representative to the UN and more than two decades in the U.S. Foreign Service focusing on the Middle East.

You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

LUISS MEDITERRANEAN PLATFORM

—UPCOMING EVENT—

Mediterranean Talks: In Conversation with Romain Grandjean

On March 10, join LUISS for an insightful discussion featuring Romain Grandjean, Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa for the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), as he explores key challenges and opportunities in the Mediterranean region. Topics will include security dynamics, diplomatic strategies, and economic cooperation amid geopolitical shifts. This event, part of LUISS’s ongoing Mediterranean Talks series, aims to deepen understanding of current affairs shaping North Africa and Europe.

Don’t miss this opportunity to gain expert perspectives on fostering stability and collaboration in the Mediterranean.

THE SAIS REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

—CALL FOR PAPERS—

Forgotten Wars: Beyond the Mainstream

The next issue of The SAIS Review aims to shed light on the world's overlooked crises, by elevating underreported conflicts to cultivate a deeper understanding of their historical roots, political dynamics, and humanitarian consequences as well as exploring potential paths toward resolution.

Policymakers, professionals, academics, and activists with expertise may submit to sais.review@gmail.com. 

Abstracts are due March 15, 2025

Manuscripts are due March 29, 2025

PERSPECTIVES

CHATHAM HOUSE

—EXPLAINER—

How Conflict in Libya Facilitated Transnational Expansion of Migrant Smuggling and Trafficking

The 2011 Libyan conflict’s aftermath dismantled state institutions, enabling militias and criminal networks to exploit power vacuums for migrant smuggling. By 2023, over 700,000 migrants transited Libya, primarily from Niger and Chad, with smuggling revenues exceeding $100 million annually. Political fragmentation allowed rival factions to control key routes, integrating smuggling into local economies and regional conflict economies. Trafficking networks expanded operations, shifting from voluntary transport to systematic exploitation, including forced labor, detention, and extortion. EU policies aimed at curbing Mediterranean migration inadvertently intensified risks, pushing migrants toward longer, perilous desert routes and empowering armed groups. Competition among smugglers fueled violence, with over 2,500 migrant deaths recorded in Libya between 2021-2023. The convergence of weak governance, regional instability, and demand for irregular migration channels transformed Libya into a hub for transnational criminal activity, illustrating how conflict economies adapt to global migration pressures. International responses prioritizing border control over governance reform have further entrenched these networks, complicating efforts to disrupt trafficking flows.





MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE SWITZERLAND

MENA Energy Outlook: Oil in the Era of Trump’s Second Presidency

A potential second Trump administration could reshape MENA oil markets since U.S. energy policies may now prioritize deregulation, boosting domestic shale production, and weakening climate commitments, affecting global oil demand. MENA producers, responsible for 35% of global oil exports, face pressure to adjust output amid fluctuating prices and OPEC+ cohesion challenges. U.S. shale’s projected 8% production increase by 2025 could further strain OPEC’s market share, complicating price stabilization efforts. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are diversifying into renewables, targeting 50 GW of solar capacity by 2030, while balancing oil revenue needs. A mix of U.S. geopolitical priorities, Iran sanctions enforcement, and China’s growing energy imports risks further volatility. Regional economies reliant on hydrocarbons must navigate shifting alliances, trade dynamics, and energy transition pressures. The outcome could redefine long-term energy security and fiscal stability for MENA states.

HORIZONS

Shifting Sands

Libya remains divided between the UN-backed Tripoli government (GNU) and the eastern parliament-aligned administration (GNS) supported by Gen. Khalifa Haftar. A new UN envoy, Ghana’s Hannah Tetteh, faces entrenched deadlock despite mediation efforts, with elections stalled. February’s failed assassination of GNU minister Adel Jumaa highlights Tripoli’s instability, while southern clashes between Haftar-aligned factions—such as the 128th Brigade and 87th Battalion—reveal deepening fractures. Saddam Haftar, Gen. Haftar’s son and LNA Ground Forces Chief, is consolidating power via a Fezzan offensive targeting foreign mercenaries and armed groups, including Chadian rebels linked to Saleh Abdelkerim Habré. Tribal dynamics, exemplified by Tebu leader Mahmoud Sallah’s capture, drive shifting alliances, complicating Haftar’s Arab nationalist agenda. Russia’s expanding military presence—pursuing bases in Tobruk and Maaten al-Sarra—aligns with Sahelian regimes, heightening Western concerns. France’s engagement, including Macron’s February meeting with Haftar, aims to counter Moscow’s influence, evidenced by Sallah’s release post-talks. Libya’s instability now intersects with regional power struggles, Sahelian crises, and global strategic competition.

POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH

The Ebbs and Flows of East Mediterranean Gas Politics

The Eastern Mediterranean’s natural gas resources have increasingly influenced regional geopolitics and economic strategies. By 2025, proven reserves exceed 3.5 trillion cubic meters, with major fields near Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, and Greece. Competition over maritime boundaries, notably between Turkey and Cyprus, has stalled exploration in contested zones, delaying an estimated $50 billion in potential investments. Egypt’s LNG exports rose 15% in 2024, capitalizing on its infrastructure, while Israel’s Leviathan field supplies 70% of domestic energy needs. Regional alliances, such as the Greece-Cyprus-Israel energy corridor, aim to diversify EU gas imports, targeting 10% supply by 2030. Turkey’s unilateral drilling activities in disputed waters escalated tensions, prompting EU sanctions and complicating NATO cohesion. Declining global gas prices (30% drop in 2023) slowed project financing, shifting focus to cost-efficient extraction. Environmental pressures and EU green transition goals challenge long-term viability, despite short-term demand. Simultaneously, renewable energy investments in the region grew 20% in 2023, reflecting dual strategies. The interplay of resource nationalism, market volatility, and climate imperatives defines the region’s energy trajectory, balancing economic gains against geopolitical risks.

REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS

ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT (EIU) | REPORT



Democracy Index 2024

Despite a record election year in 2024—when more than half of the global population went to the polls—EIU’s Democracy Index recorded another democratic decline. The average score fell to its lowest since the index began in 2006, down from the previous year. Only 45% of the world’s population lives in a democracy, 39% under authoritarian rule, and 15% in “hybrid regimes” that combine electoral democracy with authoritarian tendencies. The Democracy Index 2024 provides a detailed analysis of political trends at country, regional and global levels. Recent results show a growing dissatisfaction with democratic models driving demand for new forms of political representation, ultimately influencing governance, policymaking and the broader operating environment.

GERMAN INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT & SUSTAINABILITY (IDOS) | THE CURRENT COLUMN



Middle East & North Africa

The Importance of Long-term Effects

Europe’s pursuit of short-term goals, such as curbing migration through deals with authoritarian regimes or protecting agricultural markets, risks reinforcing repression, stifling economic progress, and worsening displacement. Germany and the EU must prioritize long-term stability by opening markets to MENA goods, supporting climate adaptation, and linking financial aid to reforms in governance, human rights, and social equity.

AFRICA CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES | INFOGRAPHIC



African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025

A sharp restriction in off-continental irregular migration combined with escalating push factors will continue to shape governance and security priorities in Africa and heighten the urgency for more regional innovation to accommodate intracontinental population movements.

RECRUITMENT

Recruit Exceptional Global Talent from Johns Hopkins SAIS!

JHU SAIS Graduate Students bring advanced expertise, analytical rigor, and a global perspective to complex challenges. With 96% of graduates securing employment or further academic opportunities within six months, our candidates are well-prepared for roles across the private, public, non-profit, and multilateral sectors.

Employers can advertise job and internship openings, access curated resume books of highly qualified candidates, and engage through employer presentations, site visits, and career treks.



IMF | Resident Macroeconomic Frameworks Advisor

The IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) and the IMF’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) are seeking a qualified candidate to fill the position of Resident Macroeconomic Frameworks Advisor. They will undertake these activities through technical assistance (TA) missions, TA-related training engagements, and peer-to-peer learning activities, either alone or together with IMF staff and/or specialized short-term experts (STX) employed by the IMF.

DEADLINE: MARCH 06, 2025

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Stay informed.

Stay ahead.

See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.

You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:

Lana Bleik

Senior Research Program Coordinator 

CONTRIBUTORS

Muhammad Umar Zafar

JHU SAIS MAIR Student & NAI Research Assistant

Daniel Weinstein

JHU SAIS MAIR Student & NAI Research Assistant

The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.