TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2025 | |
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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
Redrawing Borders Across Libya Would Resolve Nothing
ARAB NEWS — Libya's fragmentation since 2011, marked by rival governments and armed militias, signals a broader breakdown post-intervention. Proposals to partition the country into eastern, western, and possibly southern zones as a solution to ongoing instability risk cementing current dysfunctions. The divide legitimizes warlords, who could transition into de facto state leaders, exacerbating issues of corruption and foreign influence. Libya's interconnected tribal, economic, and social systems resist such division, as national coordination around oil, trade, and financial systems remains critical. Moreover, partition could incite further conflict over resources and control, deepening the country's instability. Sustainable peace necessitates dismantling the warlord economy, reducing external interference, and fostering inclusive governance, not mere redrawing of borders. Formal and comprehensive governance reforms are imperative to address the deeply rooted issues beyond a simplistic geographic separation.
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Red Sea Ship Traffic Is Yet to Pick Up as Ceasefire Risks Swirl
BLOOMBERG — Ship traffic through the Red Sea has remained stagnant despite a ceasefire in the region. Following the truce declared by Yemen's Houthis, transits via the Gulf of Aden have not increased, as reported by the Joint Maritime Information Center. Shipping companies remain cautious due to ongoing Middle Eastern tensions, preferring the longer, yet safer, route around Africa. Hostilities had earlier prompted the Houthis to target vessels linked to Israel and the West, but threats persist despite the truce. President Trump's remarks on potentially escalating the ceasefire agreement add to the volatility in the region.
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The Head of AISE Goes to Libya to Prevent More Almasri Cases for Italy
IL FOGLIO — Giovanni Caravelli, head of Italy's external intelligence agency, AISE, traveled to Tripoli to discuss with Libyan officials strategies to prevent incidents similar to the recent arrest and release of Osama al Najem "Almasri," a high-profile Libyan figure. The meeting aimed to identify Libyan fugitives wanted by the International Criminal Court who might travel to Italy, ensuring they wouldn't face arrest upon entry. This move is part of Italy's efforts to maintain diplomatic relations with Libya and avoid politically sensitive and media-challenging situations. The visit occurred amidst Italy's domestic political tensions involving investigations into its own ministers. Additionally, the use of Graphite spyware by Italian intelligence and its targeting of activists has raised significant international and local scrutiny.
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Sudan: 'No Obstacles' to Russian Red Sea Base
BBC — Sudan and Russia have finalized an agreement to establish a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast, pending ratification. This deal, initially discussed under former President Omar al-Bashir and signed in 2020, aims to create a 25-year naval logistics hub for Russia. The base will accommodate nuclear-powered vessels and up to 300 personnel, enhancing Russia's strategic position in the region. This move follows Russia's recent loss of its only foreign naval base in Syria and fits within its broader strategy to expand influence in Africa amidst ongoing civil conflict in Sudan.
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Q&A: Is the Islamic State Sahel Province Kidnapping More Foreigners?
ACLED — In recent weeks, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) has increased its kidnapping activities, particularly targeting foreigners, driven by the higher ransom fees they command. This marks a significant shift from past trends, where kidnappings were mainly executed by al-Qaeda-affiliated groups. Notable recent incidents include the abductions of an Austrian woman in Niger, a Spanish man in Algeria, and four Moroccan truck drivers in Burkina Faso. From January to February 2025 alone, six foreign nationals have been taken by ISSP. This spike in kidnappings correlates with ISSP's territorial gains and improved logistical capabilities, alongside their strategy of outsourcing kidnappings to other armed groups and bandits.
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Moroccan Workers Fight Back Against “Anti-worker” Bill
PEOPLE'S DISPATCH — In early February, Moroccan workers launched a general strike to oppose a new strike law, rising living costs, and perceived anti-union government actions. Organized by five central unions, the strike achieved an 84.9% participation rate on its first day, disrupting key sectors like agriculture, education, and public services. The unions argue the law restricts constitutionally guaranteed rights and undermines historical labor gains. They also reject a proposed merger of social security funds for government and private sector employees. The strike, supported domestically and internationally, serves as a warning with threats of further action if government policies remain unchanged.
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Tunisia: Trade Deficit Has Tripled in January 2025
ZAWYA — Tunisia's trade deficit surged to TND 1,765.5 million in January 2025, tripling from TND 577.6 million in January 2024. The energy balance deficit expanded to TND 1,078.4 million, up from TND 683.6 million. Significant trade deficits were recorded with China, Russia, Algeria, Turkey, Greece, and India, while surpluses were noted with France, Germany, Italy, Libya, and Morocco. The coverage rate dropped to 74% from 89.9% the previous year. Exports fell to TND 5,025.8 million due to a 52.8% decrease in energy sector exports and a 9.7% decline in food-processing sector exports, while imports rose to TND 6,791.3 million driven by increased energy product imports.
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Egypt Inflation Slows Slightly as Central Bank Looks at Cuts
BLOOMBERG — In January, Egypt's annual urban inflation dropped slightly to 24% from the previous month, influencing the central bank's decision-making on interest-rate cuts. Despite holding the base rate at 27.25% since March 2022, analysts predict potential rate cuts might begin this month, possibly decreasing to 16% by year's end. Food prices, a major inflation component, rose to 20.8%, while external financial support reached $8 billion from the IMF and $35 billion in UAE investments. Achieving the central bank's inflation target of 7% remains crucial for economic stability amid subsidy cuts and currency fluctuations.
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Minister: Tunisia Aims to Attract 30,000 Chinese Tourists Annually in Near Future
XINHUA SILK ROAD — Tunisian Minister of Tourism Sofiane Tekaya announced plans to attract 30,000 Chinese tourists annually, up from 24,000 in 2024. This initiative includes a new training program focused on Chinese language and dietary preferences to enhance service quality. The strategy aims to welcome 11 million visitors in 2025, building on last year's strong performance with 10.25 million foreign arrivals. Tourism, contributing around 10% of Tunisia's GDP, remains vital for the economy and employment, drawing visitors to its Mediterranean beaches, ancient ruins, and Sahara desert attractions.
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—TRANSLATED—
[Investigation] How Russia is Conquering the Sahel, from Base to Base
JEUNE AFRIQUE — Russia has expanded its strategic influence in the Sahel region through a series of military and logistical maneuvers. Utilizing a network of bases, including the repurposed Maaten al-Sarra airbase in Libya, Russia has bolstered its military presence. This move is facilitated by the Africa Corps, an entity reinforcing Russia’s foothold in the region through equipment and personnel deployments. Additionally, Russian diplomatic engagements, such as those involving Khalifa Haftar in Libya and increased cooperation with Chad, underscore a coordinated effort to assert geopolitical influence across Africa’s Sahel zone.
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Sima Beitinjaneh’s journey spans continents, industries, and disciplines, reflecting a deep commitment to understanding and shaping global policy. Born in Paris, and raised in Damascus, Syria, she has lived and worked across the Middle East, Europe, and the United States, gaining a multicultural perspective that informs her work in international affairs.
Her career began in technology, working as a Network Engineer with IBM/Cisco during Syria’s digitization efforts. She later transitioned into finance, earning an MBA in Finance and working as a Financial Analyst, where she honed her expertise in economic analysis. Her passion for policy and energy led her to Portland General Electric, where she played a key role as a Power Analyst, contributing to long-term energy planning and regulatory engagement.
Now pursuing a Master of International Public Policy at Johns Hopkins SAIS, Sima focuses on governance and global affairs. As a Research Associate at the Foreign Policy Institute, she analyzes North African geopolitics, produces policy publications such as Algeria: A Special Edition Newsletter, and contributes to media projects such as Eye on the Maghreb and The Looking Glass. Her insights on U.S. foreign policy and the Arab world have been published in The Hill.
Fluent in Arabic, French, English, and Spanish, Sima brings a truly global perspective to her work. Her diverse experiences across sectors and regions position her at the intersection of governance, economic development, and geopolitical strategy, where she continues to bridge disciplines and cultures.
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THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE
—NEW EPISODE—
Eye on the Maghreb
The Eye on the Maghreb video interview series, led by Hafed Al-Ghwell, FPI Senior Fellow & Director of NAI, and developed by SAIS students, Sima Beitinjaneh & Jozie Gregg, explores the pressing issues affecting the Maghreb subregion. In this latest episode, Hafed discusses the ramifications of Bashar al-Assad's ouster in Syria and the shifting balance of power as Russia encroaches on Libya, seeking to leverage its proximity to Europe as well as Africa Corps operations across the Sahel and Central Africa; Egypt's fear of a potential resurgence of political Islam given Syria's new leadership and rising anti-regime fervor amidst worsening economic woes and repression.
You can catch this and previous episodes on NAI's YouTube Channel.
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THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & SAIS REVIEW'S THE LOOKING GLASS PODCAST
—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—
The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux
Catch the newest episode of The Looking Glass' "The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux" — part of the first Maghreb Voices Mini Series dedicated to Libya, a collaboration between the SAIS Review of International Affairs and the North Africa Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
This episode dives into Libya’s rich yet tumultuous history, from ancient kingdoms to the transformation of society under Gaddafi and beyond. Joining us is Stephanie Turco Williams, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and former special adviser on Libya to the UN Secretary-General. Stephanie shares her expertise on Libya’s social and economic shifts, informed by her extensive career, including roles as acting special representative for Libya and deputy special representative to the United Nations as well as 24 years in the U.S. Foreign Service focusing on the Middle East.
Stay tuned for her insights on Libya’s challenges, opportunities, and the global impact of its transformation.
You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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CHATHAM HOUSE AFRICA PROGRAMME | PODCAST
—LISTEN NOW—
Africa Aware: How Transnational Human Smuggling Fuels Conflict in Libya
Since the 2011 Libyan revolution, the country has endured waves of conflict. As an integral linkage between Africa and Europe, international media highlights a growing migrant crisis through Libya – attributed to a human smuggling and trafficking sector regulated by various local actors. In this episode, Chatham House experts discuss their latest research on how transnational human smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya through a systems analysis of three key transit cities – Kufra, Sebha and Zawiya. The research examines the roles played by conflict and social dynamics in the expansion of human smuggling and trafficking – thus helping uncover critical gaps in policies aimed at addressing the rapid rise of migration.
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THE SAIS REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
—CALL FOR PAPERS—
Forgotten Wars: Beyond the Mainstream
Since 2022, global media has heavily concentrated on two major conflicts—the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah War. While these wars have significant geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian implications, this narrow focus often obscures other conflicts that continue to shape global security, and regional stability.
In this issue,The SAIS Review aims to shed light on these overlooked crises, by elevating underreported conflicts to cultivate a deeper understanding of their historical roots, political dynamics, and humanitarian consequences as well as exploring potential paths toward resolution.
Policymakers, professionals, academics, and activists with expertise may submit to sais.review@gmail.com.
Abstracts are due March 15, 2025
Manuscripts are due March 29, 2025
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CHATHAM HOUSE | MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME
—RESEARCH PAPER—
How Migrant Smuggling Has Fuelled Conflict in Libya
Since 2011, Libya has experienced three phases in the development of migrant smuggling and trafficking. Initially, there was a rapid expansion of these practices, followed by a clampdown between 2017 and 2019 by international and local actors, and a resurgence beginning in 2020. Focused analyses of transit hubs Kufra, Sebha, and Zawiya reveal two interconnected feedback loops: local disputes over authority leading to conflict, and economic structures heavily dependent on informal and illicit trades. These dynamics have entrenched armed groups and augmented conflicts, undermining the establishment of unified governance. Predominantly viewed through a criminal lens, migrant smuggling in Libya is deeply tied to historical conflicts and social dynamics. External efforts, mainly European, have aimed at symptom control rather than addressing root causes, complicating resolution. A comprehensive approach integrating local development and peacebuilding is recommended to mitigate the economic and social drivers of the conflict.
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NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUNDATION
The Trump Effect
The return of Donald Trump to the White House after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections has sparked varying reactions globally, notably in the Middle East and North Africa. Israel and Arab nations involved in the Abraham Accords, such as Morocco, anticipate substantial benefits. Morocco views U.S. recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara as a pivotal diplomatic victory. Enhanced military cooperation is evident, with Morocco set to receive 24 AH-64E Apache helicopters and 30 AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM missiles, solidifying its position as the leading African buyer of US military equipment. Additionally, Morocco is procuring Bayraktar TB-2 drones from Turkey, showcasing its strategic alignment amid regional tensions with Algeria and the Polisario Front. Potential drone production partnerships with Israel further signify Morocco’s expanding defense capabilities. Concurrently, Algeria's unexpected memorandum with the U.S. AFRICOM post-Trump’s inauguration reflects shifting geopolitical dynamics worth monitoring.
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THE ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE & SECURITY (RUSI)
Morocco as a Strategic Partner in Supporting the Sahel Region’s Security
Morocco has become a pivotal ally in promoting stability within the Sahel region through strategic initiatives and investments. Leveraging its historical ties and strategic location, Morocco launched the Atlantic Initiative to grant landlocked Sahel countries access to maritime trade routes, aiming to boost economic regional integration and counter instability. Morocco's engagement extends to substantial infrastructure projects, such as investing in the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline and establishing a power plant in Niamey, strengthening energy independence in Niger. Additionally, Morocco’s role is crucial in addressing transnational threats like terrorism and illicit trafficking. Amid geopolitical shifts, the creation of a unified military force by the Alliance of Sahel States and their withdrawal from ECOWAS underline the evolving security dynamics, where Morocco's strategic and economic efforts embody a stabilizing presence. These developments highlight Morocco's comprehensive approach in fostering regional security and sustainable partnerships.
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MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE SWITZERLAND (MEIS)
The Evolution of China-Middle East Relations within a Transforming Geoeconomic Landscape
China's economic relations with the Middle East have evolved from a focus on infrastructure and energy to more comprehensive partnerships driven by shifting global economic trends and regional structural changes. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated significant Chinese investment, particularly in Gulf oil and natural gas sectors. However, rising competition, political instability, and increasing labor costs demand a strategic pivot. Middle Eastern nations are diversifying their economies through national visions like Saudi Vision 2030, emphasizing renewable energy, high technology, and digital transformation. This aligns with China's strengths, driving new collaborations in digital infrastructure, including 5G deployment by firms like Huawei and ZTE, and fintech integration through systems like WeChat Pay. These efforts not only reduce financial risks for China but also solidify its influence in regulatory frameworks governing the digital economy. The GCC region, leveraging this technological influx, aims to position itself as a key player in the multipolar world order while ensuring national priorities are met through strategic cooperation.
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CRISIS GROUP
Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025
As Africa faces unprecedented levels of conflict across its regions, the African Union (AU) must address multiple crises against a backdrop of global disorder and diminishing international support. Conflicts in the Horn of Africa, including the civil war in Sudan, the tenuous stability in Somalia, and ongoing insurgencies in Ethiopia, exacerbate regional instability. The central Sahel's reliance on Russian security firms following the expulsion of French and U.S. troops highlights shifting power dynamics, while violence between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo threatens to escalate. Additionally, challenges persist in Cameroon, Mozambique, and South Sudan. The AU must leverage its legitimacy, diplomatic influence, and recent successes, such as its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, to renew leadership on peace and security, mediate in Sudan, avert a regional war in the Great Lakes, launch a new force in Somalia, engage with the central Sahel, support credible elections in Cameroon, and adopt a climate security stance.
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PROJECTS, REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS | |
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WORLD BANK | POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
The Elusive Impact of Corporate Tax Incentives
This paper investigates the economic impact of phasing out a significant tax exemption for export-oriented firms in Tunisia, revealing a decline in new firm entry but no effect on employment, revenue, or wages, as established firms saw no change. The findings suggest limited importance of tax incentives for investment decisions compared to other economic factors.
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WORLD BANK
Climate Change Action Plan (2021–2025)
Supporting Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development
This publication details the World Bank Group’s new Climate Change Action Plan for 2021-2025, which aims to increase climate finance to developing countries, reduce emissions, enhance adaptation and resilience, and align financial flows with the Paris Agreement. Key initiatives include prioritizing high-impact climate actions, supporting Nationally Determined Contributions, mobilizing private capital, and ensuring a just transition from coal.
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WORLD BANK | CENTRAL SAHEL OBSERVATORY
Strengthening the Social Contract by Improving Service Delivery
This edition of the Central Sahel Observatory focuses on the World Bank’s efforts to improve livelihoods by enhancing service delivery. GDP growth in the Central Sahel rose from 3% in 2023 to 4% in 2024, leading to modest per capita growth and poverty reduction, except in Chad due to the refugee crisis. Growth drivers included agriculture and services in Burkina Faso, telecommunications and cotton in Mali, and the Benin-Niger oil pipeline in Niger, despite challenges like low diversification, insecurity, political uncertainty, and flooding.
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ARAB REFORM INITIATIVE | CRITICAL POLICY ANALYSIS
The Pastoral Law in Morocco: Decision-making Process and Implementation Challenges
Since its adoption in 2016 and the publication of its implementing texts in 2018, Pastoral Law in Morocco has become the legal framework for the Moroccan pastoral system. This paper aims to shed light on how the policy was developed and the challenges the government faced when implementing the law, especially at the territorial level.
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Recruit Exceptional Global Talent from Johns Hopkins SAIS!
JHU SAIS Graduate Students bring advanced expertise, analytical rigor, and a global perspective to complex challenges. With 96% of graduates securing employment or further academic opportunities within six months, our candidates are well-prepared for roles across the private, public, non-profit, and multilateral sectors.
Employers can advertise job and internship openings, access curated resume books of highly qualified candidates, and engage through employer presentations, site visits, and career treks.
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LUISS Med. Platform School of Government | Training Program on Post-conflict Journalism
The "Reporting for Peace in Libya" training program aims to equip Libyan journalists and bloggers with essential skills in ethical, conflict-sensitive journalism. It includes online seminars on media ethics, countering misinformation, and conflict analysis, followed by an intensive workshop in Rome focused on investigative journalism and multimedia storytelling. The program seeks candidates who are committed to responsible reporting and promoting peace and dialogue within post-conflict Libya.
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World Bank | Senior Agriculture Economist (Tunis)
The Senior Agriculture Economist position, based in Tunis, Tunisia, involves leading the Agriculture and Food GP's work in the MNA region. Responsibilities include coordinating projects, policy dialogue, and stakeholder engagement. Candidates should have a Master’s or PhD in Agricultural Economics, at least eight years of relevant experience, strong analytical skills, and proficiency in English and French. Knowledge of Arabic is preferred.
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World Bank | Senior Agriculture Economist (Rabat)
The Senior Agriculture Economist position based in Rabat, Morocco, involves leading the development and implementation of the Agriculture and Food GP's work in the region, managing projects, and engaging in policy dialogue with stakeholders. Candidates should have a Master’s or PhD in Agricultural Economics or a related field, over eight years of relevant experience, strong analytical skills, and proficiency in English and French. Knowledge of Arabic is a plus.
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World Bank / AfDB | Consultant
A Senior Partnership Specialist at the World Bank is seeking to hire a Consultant to help build partnerships in support of Mission 300 – a new initiative by the World Bank and AfDB to provide electricity access to 300 million people in Africa by 2030. Candidates should have prior experience building partnerships with donors, DFIs, philanthropies and other ecosystem players active in Africa’s energy sector.
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OECD | Egypt In-Country Experts (Non-Staff Consultants)
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is launching a Call for Tenders to source three individuals, non-staff consultants, based in Egypt to work and contribute to the project: “Promoting Citizen-centred Governance in Egypt”. This call for tenders is divided into 3 lots: Senior Justice Expert; Senior Regulatory Policy Expert, and; Youth Empowerment Expert. Interested candidates should register here in order to access the associated documents and further information.
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Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Senior Research Program Coordinator
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | |
Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
