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Investors get nervous during election years. In fact, flows into money market funds are 3x higher in election years compared to the year after an election. However, The S&P 500 had negative returns in only 2 of the last 20 election years (2000, 2008). *1
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In 1990, just 4% of Americans held passports, a large contrast to today's figure of 49%. Many believe this will continue to act as a tailwind for tourism stocks over the next few years. 2
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US mortgage rates ended 2023 at 6.61%, the lowest level since May. This is a large decline from the peak of 7.79% in October, raising optimism that this drop in borrowing costs will likely drive increased demand for home purchases in the upcoming months. *3
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A record-high 72% of stocks in the S&P 500 underperformed the index in 2023. This marks a 30% increase in underperformance compared to 2022. 4
- Capital Group- "Investing in an Election Year"
- Bloomberg Opinion - "Today 49% of American Have Passports"
- Business Week- "US mortgage rates are ending the year at the lowest level since May, dropping to 6.61%"
- Bloomberg- "Apollo Chief Economist"
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
New Year's holiday, markets closed
Tuesday:
S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI (Dec), Construction spending (Nov)
Wednesday:
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks, U.S. job openings (Nov), ISM manufacturing (Dec), Minutes of Fed's December meeting, Auto sales (Dec)
Thursday:
ADP employment (Dec), Initial jobless claims (Dec), S&P final U.S. services PMI (Dec)
Friday:
U.S. employment report (Dec),U.S. unemployment rate (Dec), U.S. hourly wages (Dec), Hourly wages (year over year), ISM services (Dec), Factory orders (Nov), Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks
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