EpiX Newsletter
March 2020
Acknowledging Uncertainty
C oronavirus, COVID-19, is on everyone’s mind – and lips - right now. Jokes about avoiding lagers and touching one’s lips aside, there is already a vast amount of information circulating in the media and from governments and research organizations about the virus itself , where it is , and how to protect yourself , as well as the personal, public health and economic impacts already coming to pass. The world is learning more and more about the virus rapidly, but there is still a lot unknown. In the rush to inform with clarity and authority, statements in all-too-certain terms become common – a phenomenon not limited to COVID-19 or even infectious disease. Acknowledging that we have uncertainties, of course, doesn’t mean we can’t do anything, or that we should be largely driven by the worst-case scenario. In fact, with the right approach, it empowers us to focus on, and manage, the key uncertainties that will drive our success (or failures) the most. Probabilistic thinking and management that acknowledges and embraces these concepts are key to moving forward with uncertain data with the best chance of success. A trend we’ve observed in our work, both in the public sector and the corporate world, is that effective communication and leadership can be best served by honest humility, and acknowledging that we don’t always know everything, but that we’re trying to make the best decision possible amidst all of the uncertainties we may have.

Okay, so you might be wondering what all this means in practice, and we don't blame you, so here is an example: this article recently published by our team discusses how flaws and omissions in a landmark diet and sustainability report, published in The Lancet, affected its conclusions, and reveals why it is important to use proper evidence and risk analysis methods to account for parameter uncertainty.

In summary, our recommendation is to embrace uncertainty rather than trying to hide it under the carpet.
EpiX team to engage in Norwegian
nutritional events April 22-23 in Oslo
EpiX Analytics has been invited to present at a seminar entitled A scientific deep dive into the issues of meat – nutrition, health, and sustainability . The seminar program includes several internationally recognized speakers from the US, Norway, The Netherlands, and Australia and will take place in Oslo, Norway, on April 22, 2020. Dr. Francisco J. Zagmutt from our team will give a talk on “Health and Nutrition: news, fake news, and uncertain news”. 

The day after the seminar, on April 23, Drs. Jane G. Pouzou and Francisco J. Zagmutt, will teach a one-day course designed for nutritionists, titled Quantitative population health analysis in nutrition: a primer . A description of the course and course program are available here . You can obtain more information and register for the course at this website . The website is in Norwegian but very translatable using a translator app! 
Registration now open for our two most popular courses
E piX Analytics is offering two exceptional training courses in our 2020 Course Schedule , that have become a staple in the risk analysis community.
Our 5-day course, Epidemiology and Food Safety Risk Analysis , i s scheduled for June 22-26, 2020, at our new offices in Fort Collins, CO. The course has been updated to incorporate more hands-on, real-world group exercises, new techniques, and a variety of case studies to guide participants through the main steps of the development of a risk assessment model. The course is now taught primarily using R while also including material in @RISK.
On October 7-9, 2020, ou r Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis course is scheduled to take place in Boulder. In this class, the main principles and techniques in quantitative risk analysis will be presented along with how to use QRA to more thoroughly understand risk and uncertainty and improve decision-making.
Fort Collins, CO, USA
October 7-9, 2020 Quantitative Risk Analysis
Boulder, CO, USA
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