SHARE:  


Agency all the way down? Central Asian geopolitics amidst the full invasion of Ukraine and Russia sanctions

Monday, March 31, 2025

12:00 pm - 1:00 pm EST


Elliott School of International Affairs

1957 E St NW | Washington, DC 20052

Voesar Conference Room | 4th Floor


Lunch Provided

Register
Facebook  Youtube  X  Web

This event is on record and open to the media.

Three years after the full invasion of Ukraine, on the surface there seems to be continuity of Russian influence in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but this belies significant shifts under the surface in a rapidly evolving geopolitical context. Drawing on insights from critical geopolitics, as well as our previous work in the region, we show how and why we should look beyond an elite-centric view of geopolitics to the geopolitical imaginaries of ordinary people. We argue that this is not just an ethical concern but can help us better understand empirical processes currently underway. The full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent shock waves through the region, with public demonstrations in support of Ukraine in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Analysts at the time predicted that Central Asian countries would move away from Russia. Three years later however, the relationship of these countries with Russia is as close as ever, in spite of a renewed interest in the region by the West.



Does this demonstrate that elite geopolitics is all that matters? We argue that this isn’t the case, and that there are reasons why popular support for a close relationship with Russia has remained high – but also that this is in light of important reconfigurations affecting different strata of society (differently in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan). Reconfiguration of labour migration, the emergence of a younger generation of well-educated urban middle class beginning to question historical legacies of Soviet rule, but also the emergence of both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan as hubs of Russian sanction evasion are part of how entanglements with and imaginaries of Russia are changing among populations and businesses.


Kazakh and Kyrgyz elites are navigating the issue of association with Russia more carefully than before, but regime legitimacy remains an important element of how the relationship with Russia is conducted. We conclude that popular imaginaries and practices co-produce a strong association with Russia, but the parameters are shifting.

Speaker

Dr Asel Doolotkeldieva is a political scientist and political sociologist with a particular background in studying popular sentiment and contentious politics. She holds a PhD in Politics from the University of Exeter (UK) and is a Non-residential Fellow of George Washington University, based in Almaty, Kazakhstan. She previously served as a Senior Lecturer at the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Asel has widely published on political and social changes in Central Asia and has prepared a number of reports on Russian, Chinese, and Western influences in the region. Together with Stefanie Ortmann (University of Sussex), she has recently received a research grant from UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) titled “Understanding the impact of Russian sanctions on Central Asian economies and geopolitical relationships.”

Moderator

Dr. Ivan Grek is the Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies. Trained in political science and history, Ivan specializes in studies of illiberal grassroot movements and ideology in Russia. Ivan’s research was published in peer-reviewed political science journals, as well as US and Russian media outlets such as the Washington Post and Kommersant.

The Russia Program at GW condemns Russia's invasion of Ukraine and calls for the restoration of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty.

The Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES)
Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW / Suite 412 / Washington, DC 20052
Tel (202) 994-6340 / Fax (202) 994-5436 / Email ieresgwu@gwu.edu