Hi everyone:
Brian here.
I was in the hospital during the release of the latest Exclusive on June 11, and wasn't able to provide updated information regarding the tracking of the Exclusive ideas. My apologies.
I'm doing much better and wanted to provide an update on the "performance tracking" of the capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations -- two categories we monitor closely with respect to success rates.*
But before we release the updated success rate tally for the Exclusive capital appreciation ideas and short idea considerations (we also monitor Exclusive income ideas but evaluate the pace of income growth in the income category, not capital appreciation/depreciation), we are closing a number of prior short idea considerations today
In particular, we are closing the December 2021, January 2022, March 2022, April 2022, May 2022, and June 2022 short idea considerations, as shown in the image. Silvergate Capital (SI) was a huge "winner," down more than 55%, and we made good on the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) and U.S. Foods Holding Corp (USFD) short idea considerations, both of which registered a nice double-digit decline from highlight. Other closes include DDS, IR, and COIN, the latter registering a near 10% swoon since highlight, too.
The Exclusive ideas should be viewed somewhat differently than the newsletter portfolios we provide. Ideas within the Exclusive publication, for example, are not constructed as a portfolio, nor should they be viewed as a portfolio, and we evaluate "performance" of the Exclusive ideas based on category success rates (we also keep track of the Exclusive income ideas, but do not measure success rates based on capital appreciation/depreciation).
After the half dozen closes in the Exclusive short idea consideration category today, the success rate for Exclusive short ideas since inception is now 93%+ (67 out of 72), with some hefty "winners," too. The success rate for Exclusive capital appreciation ideas stands at ~82% (59 out of 72), but we note that the past few ideas have yet to have a sufficient time for our thesis on them to work out. We're being patient with these.
The Exclusive publication is a valuable resource that can be used for monthly idea generation across the income, capital appreciation, and short idea consideration categories. Where the newsletter portfolios may not make a lot of changes each month, the Exclusive publication offers the steady drumbeat of monthly ideas for the investor. Going forward, readers should expect the Exclusive publication to be released on the 8th of the month, instead of the first Saturday.
We're available for any questions, and thank you!
Kind regards,
Brian Nelson, CFA
President, Investment Research
Valuentum Securities, Inc.
brian@valuentum.com
* Success rate: The percentage of ideas highlighted in the Exclusive that have moved in the direction of our thesis (i.e. up for capital appreciation ideas and down for short idea considerations) through the current price or closed price, with consideration of cash and stock dividends. Success rates do not consider trading costs or tax implications.