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ATEC News: August 1, 2023 |
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The 2023 Boeing Technician Outlook: A Closer Look |
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Last week in Oshkosh, Boeing released its annual Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which projects commercial jet aircraft demand over the next 20 years. Of even greater interest to the aviation maintenance world, is the annual personnel demand that uses the CMO numbers to forecast projected need for technicians as well as pilots and cabin crew.
The major takeaway from the 2023-2042 technician outlook comes as no surprise: the demand for qualified maintenance personnel is not easing anytime soon. Boeing projects a need for 690,000 maintenance technicians to support commercial carriers over the next two decades. That figure is a 12% increase over last year's forecast.
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Some of the jump is easily explained by this year's return of Russia and other countries affected by sanctions related to the war in Ukraine. Last year's forecast did not include them. This year, they are back in the "Eurasia" geographic sector, which Boeing projects will need 156,000 technicians. Last year, the comparable "Europe" category had a projected need of 120,000.
Elsewhere, Boeing boosted projected needs for every other geographic sector except for one: North America. Here at home, Boeing projects a need for 125,000 technicians over the next 20 years. Last year's comparable figure was 134,000.
Several factors help explain the shift. North America's fleet is projected to have the slowest growth over the forecast period, at 1.8% annually. Along the way, carriers are expected to renew their fleets, welcoming more efficient, less maintenance-hungry models.
Not only will these new aircraft have the so-called "maintenance honeymoons" that mean little scheduled work over the first 5-10 years in service, but they will need less labor hours throughout their service lives, slightly easing commercial aviation technician-demand pressure.
Airlines in the region also continue to up-gauge their fleets aggressively, preferring aircraft with more seats. This will drive an increase in passenger traffic growth without a lock-step rise in fleet sizes or individual aircraft flights—both of which are key drivers for maintenance demand.
Does this mean demand for new mechanics is waning here at home? Not at all. Boeing's forecast covers only commercial aviation—and jet operations at that. Absent are any projections for business aviation, civil helicopter support and arguably the most intriguing and unpredictable civil segment—the emerging world of advanced air mobility.
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Changes to Airman Testing |
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FAA Releases Guidance to Aid Testing Transition |
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This morning, FAA published Notice 8900.666, announcing changes to the mechanic certification process. As of today, the mechanic test is officially based on the Mechanic Airman Certification Standards and designated examiners will utilize a new system for oral and practical testing, the Mechanic Test Generator. Read more.
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FAA Releases Revised FAA Form 8610-2 |
Notice 8900.666 also announces release of a revised FAA Form 8610-2, the mechanic certificate application. The new form includes revisions to support the mechanic testing process using the ACS. Download the form. |
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Webinar on Friday at 1 PM CT re Testing Transition Q&A |
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Join FAA officials, designated mechanic examiners, and part 147 program representatives to discuss the agency's official transition to the mechanic airman certification standard as the testing standard, and what that means for students and examiners. Register.
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Last week, the FAA published long-awaited revisions to the General, Airframe, and Powerplant Aviation Maintenance Technician Handbooks (the handbook “B Versions”). See the changes and what they mean for student testing. Read more.
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Outreach Meeting in Seattle, August 8 |
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Area schools, employers and regulators are invited to attend an in person event based on discussions on council initiatives, strategic objectives, and ways ATEC can support the local aviation maintenance technician education community. The afternoon programming will include discussions about the Choose Aerospace maintenance curriculum. |
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Washington Fly-In, September 19 - 22 |
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Join us on September 19-22, 2023 in Washington, DC. The event will include a roundtable discussion with FAA officials and ATEC-facilitated congressional meetings on Capitol Hill. |
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Annual Conference, Presented by Bombardier in Tucson, March 17-20 |
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Planning for next year's Annual Conference, hosted by Pima Community College, is well underway! The event promises informative sessions, good food, and some of the best aviation hot spots Tucson has to offer. Don't miss out on the fun, mark your calendar! Registration will open this fall.
Sponsorship and exhibitor opportunities are abundant. Commit early for the best rates and so you don't miss the chance to support aviation education's premier event. Get your company name on signage, buy conference goers a cup of coffee, market your product, or meet one-on-one with school instructors and administrators.
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FAA Opens Third Round of Workforce Grant Funding |
The FAA is now accepting applications for Round 3 of the Aviation Workforce Development Grants. The program, created by Congress in the 2018 FAA reauthorization bill, authorized $10 million in funding annually for pilot and maintenance workforce development programs. Read more.
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Call For Papers (and Presentations) |
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The Council is currently accepting scholarly, research, application, or opinion articles for the ATEC Journal. Published authors are offered the opportunity to present the topic at the annual conference in Tucson. Submission deadline is Oct. 1. Learn more.
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Now Accepting Curriculum Applications for Fall 2023 |
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Choose Aerospace, ATEC's sister foundation, was created to unite stakeholders to grow the pipeline and increase diversity in aviation maintenance. The non-profit is pursuing that mission through development of high school aviation maintenance programs.
The Choose Aerospace aviation maintenance curriculum puts high school students on a direct path to mechanic certification, either through direct-employment opportunities or matriculation into a part 147 programs.
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Choose Aerospace Briefs Educators in Oshkosh |
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Executive Director, Crystal Maguire, joined representatives from the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Tango Flight, NASA, Safe Launch, and We Build it Better to highlight the Choose Aerospace aviation maintenance curriculum at AirVenture’s AeroEducate Educator Day. Thank you to all the educators that attended! Click the image on the left to see the full presentation. |
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Oklahoma Funds Public School Programs |
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The Oklahoma Department of Career and Technology Education recently signed a contract with Choose Aerospace its aviation maintenance curriculum to any school in the state that decides to deploy an aviation maintenance program. |
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Aviation Technician Education Council
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