- The economy has fallen into a recession 9 of the past 12 times the Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. The stock market has fallen around 30% in all recessions going back to 1929.
- The bear market has been tough on FAANG stocks, with companies like Google dropping 36%, and Meta falling 66%. Even with these declines, however, the group still accounts for more than 10% of the entire S&P 500’s weighting.
- The largest banks still do not pay much for the cash in savings accounts. Since 2019, Americans have lost out on $291 billion in interest by keeping their savings in the 5 biggest banks. That total grows to $603 billion when going back to 2014.
- Americans are cutting down on holiday gift spending. Polls showed that consumers plan to spend an average of $867 on gifts this season, down from the $932 average gift-spending estimate in October.
WSJ- "Investors Grow More Confident Fed Will Pull Off a Soft Landing"
Bloomberg- "Investors Call Time on FAANG Stock Dominance After Nasdaq's Rout"
WSJ- "The $42 Billion Question: Why Aren't Americans Ditching Big Banks?"
Barrons- "Inflation Is a Grinch. Americans Are Trimming Their Holiday Gift Spending."
Economic Calendar
Monday:
NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (Nov), NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations (Nov), Federal budget (compared with Nov. 2021) (Nov)
Tuesday:
NFIB small-business index (Nov), Consumer price index (Nov), Core CPI (Nov), CPI (year-on-year) (Nov), Core CPI (year-on-year) (Nov), CPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate) (Nov)
Wednesday:
Import price index (Nov), Federal funds rate announcement, SEP median federal funds rate for end of 2023, Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Dec), Continuing jobless claims (Dec), Retail sales (Nov), Retail sales excluding motor vehicles (Nov), Empire state manufacturing index (Dec), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Dec), Industrial production index (Nov), Capacity utilization rate (Nov), Business inventories (Oct)
Friday:
S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI (flash) (Dec), S&P U.S. services PMI (flash) (Dec)
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