|
On Wednesday, the Office of Economic and Demographic Research’s (EDR) Amy Baker provided baseline information for senators in understanding how the state estimates ad valorem taxes including potential impacts from legislation.
The presentation explained how Florida’s Revenue Estimating Conference (REC) produces the official ad valorem forecasts used for statewide and local government budgeting. These forecasts must be adopted unanimously by the four principals (EDR, House, Senate, and Governor) and are required for all state agencies to use. In 2025, the REC implemented significant changes to the ad valorem forecasting system, shifting to a more detailed, bottom-up approach that begins with county-level forecasts and aggregates them into statewide totals. This updated structure incorporates confidential parcel-level data along with new variables such as new construction, value changes, tangible personal property, centrally assessed property, and parcel counts. The improved methodology provides more precision and captures local variations in property values across both countywide and school tax rolls.
Finally, the REC notes that the next ad valorem forecast will be released on December 29, and all previously adopted impacts will be recalculated using that updated forecast, along with relevant demographic and economic projections.
Senators asked questions regarding the impact of the House property tax proposals. Senator Hooper suggested that the Senate’s Finance and Tax Committee is “their Select Committee” and Chair Avila likened the Senate’s approach to conducting a military “mission analysis” to understand the issues and develop “COAs” courses of action, with analysis to develop “a strong foundation” for a “methodical approach” to solving the problem.
To watch the committee presentation, click here.
|