THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
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No. 71 of 2018
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2018

Clicks HERE for yesterday's USMCA quote from Terence Stewart.
 FOR LEAVE AND REMAIN ALIKE

"Today, I am in Brussels with the firm intention of agreeing a Brexit deal with the leaders of the 27 EU nations.  It will be a deal that is in our national interest - one that works for our whole country and all of our people, whether you voted 'Leave' or 'Remain'."

 
Theresa May 
November 24, 2018 
CONTEXT
This is from the second paragraph of the letter Prime Minister Theresa May of the UK wrote to the people of the UK - indeed, to the world; strictly speaking there was no salutation.  As the quotation notes, she was in Brussels, the capital city of the European Union, and the following day in that city the European Council unanimously approved the deal she was referring to.   The specific documents were a  Withdrawal Agreement - reportedly some 585 pages, and legally binding if approved by all of the relevant legislatures - and a much shorter Political Declaration, 26 pages.

Mrs. Maya's letter is just two pages and you will want to read it for yourself.  In a sense, it has several trade references.  The fourth paragraph, for example, notes that the UK will be out of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy "and out of the Common Fisheries Policy," both of which have important trade elements. But it was in the start of the seventh paragraph where trade really came to the fore.  Mrs. May wrote:

"It is a deal for a brighter future, which enables us to seize the opportunities that lie ahead.  Outside the EU, we will be able to sign new trade deals with other countries and open up new markets in the fastest-growing economies around the world."

There are plenty of people busy analyzing those sentences and indeed every other word in the Prime Minister's November 24 letter.  The key question now is, what next?  Well, there will be a vote.  Parliament is scheduled to approve or disapprove Mrs. May's withdrawal deal in a vote on December 11.  
COMMENT
No one really knows how that vote will go.  Mrs. May is fighting for Parliament to say yes, and many others are pushing pretty hard the other way.  The hard- line Brexiteers, those who voted to leave in the 2016 referendum, believe she has sold them out.  On the other side,  a fair number of remainers - including, for example, Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party - find the half-way house of Mrs. May's deal very unattractive. 

Having highlighted Mrs. May's promise of new trade agreements with non-EU partners, we should note that, Nigel Farage, and others are saying that, under the terms of the proposed agreement, one cannot say when the UK will, in fact, have the freedom to strike new deals.  President Trump has been clear that the withdrawal agreement does not auger well for a trade deal with the United States.

To return to the broader picture and our brief survey of current press reports, the writer who seems to have gotten it about right is Michael Deacon.   For an article in the Daily Telegraph, he wrote:

"You've got to hand it to her.  The Prime Minister has done what no pundit thought possible: strike a deal that everyone agrees about."

The point of agreement, in his view, is that everyone is unhappy.

"Brexiteers are unhappy. Remainers are unhappy. Tories, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, DUP: all unhappy."

And, he said, they are all unhappy in about equal measure. We have no idea where this will end.  But Brexit is in a critical phase, and we'll be checking on this patient regularly.  
SOURCES & LINKS
A Letter to the Nation takes you to the letter to the British people from Prime Minister Theresa May.  Dated 24 November and sent from Brussels, the letter sets out the case for the Brexit deal the Prime Minister negotiated with her EU counterparts.  This was the source of today's featured quote.

Disaster from Day One is an assessment of the Prime Minister's letter and Brexit deal from Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee.

All Unhappy is a link to the Michael Deacon article referenced above.

Worst Deal in History is a YouTube clip with Nigel Farage's assessment of the withdrawal deal recently concluded between Prime Minister May and the European Council

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