THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No.1 of 2020
FRIDAY, JANUARY 3, 2020

Click HERE for the December 20, 2019, quote from WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo.
PRIORITY NO. 1 FOR HER MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT

 "My Government's priority is to deliver the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union on 31 January."

Queen Elizabeth II
December 19, 2019
CONTEXT
For the second time in two months, Queen Elizabeth opened a session of Parliament with a speech from the Throne on December 19, 2019. Today’s featured quote is the first sentence of that speech. Here are the first two paragraphs in full:

My Government’s priority is to deliver the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union on 31 January. My Ministers will bring forward legislation to ensure the United Kingdom’s exit on that date and to make the most of the opportunities that this brings for all the people of the United Kingdom.

Thereafter, my Ministers will seek a future relationship with the European Union based on a free trade agreement that benefits the whole of the United Kingdom. They will also begin trade negotiations with other leading global economies.

In one sense these words do not differ that greatly from what Queen Elizabeth said in her speech to Parliament on October 14, 2019. Outwardly, the main difference was not the objective of leaving the EU but only the date for doing so. Back then the date was October 31, 2019. And back then, just as on December 19, the prime minister was Boris Johnson .

But to state the obvious, those similarities mask a world of difference. In October, Mr. Johnson headed not simply a minority government but one that was held hostage by an opposition that refused to allow an election. All of that began to change on October 29 when Parliament finally gave its okay to the election that has since made history. The last time we ran a quote from Boris Johnson was on December 11, when he was still campaigning. The election on December 12 changed everything, giving Mr. Johnson and his conservatives a strong, 80 seat majority, and making the prospect of the UK’s departure from the EU on January 31 about as certain as any future development can be. 
COMMENT
This is our first TTALK Quote for 2020, and the topic is one we plan to follow as best we can in the months ahead. From our perspective, Brexit, for lack of a better term, is in the top rank of trade issues for 2020, right up there with China-U.S. trade, USMCA, and the future of the WTO . Our hesitation respecting the word “Brexit” is that it is on its way to becoming an anachronism. With every development in this drama, the focus shifts from the details of UK’s withdrawal from the European Union to the nature of their new relationship, and, beyond that, to the evolving relations of each with the rest of the world. 

In the American context that generalization highlights the questions: Are we going to have a U.S.-UK bilateral trade deal any time soon? What will drive it? What will the stumbling blocks be? And what about a deal between the U.S. and the European Union? Will there be a revision of TTIP?

We know we are getting ahead of the story here. Even the withdrawal has not happened yet. Both the UK and the EU parliaments need to approve the withdrawal agreement bill, and then there is the difficult issue of the trading relationship between the UK and the EU. Mr. Johnson insists that should be wrapped up by the end of this year. The new President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen thinks it might take quite a bit longer. Doubtless that will be one of the many things they will talk about when President von der Leyen calls on Prime Minister Johnson next Wednesday in London. 

***

We’ll save further comment on Brexit etc. for future entries, but there is one other element from the Queen’s speech that deserves mention here, namely, this sentence:

Work will be taken forward to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act was the 2011 innovation of the coalition government headed by David Cameron (Conservative) and Nick Clegg (Liberal-Democrats). Whatever its perceived merits, it has proven to be a disaster. By denying the prime minister the ability to call an early election, it opened the door to a wide and unhealthy gap between power and responsibility. As head of a minority government that could not call an election, Boris Johnson, was saddled with responsibility but denied the necessary power. A functioning democracy should be able to correct its mistakes. In repealing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the new Conservative government will be doing just that. 
SOURCES & LINKS
The Queen’s Speech of December 19, 2019 is a link to the text of this document, which was the source for today’s featured quote.

The Queen Speech of October 14, 2019 takes you to this earlier speech from the Throne. 

The Election of December 12, 2019 is the Wikipedia entry for this most recent and decisive UK election. It has been widely reported that the Conservatives now have a majority of 80, and we do not doubt that. Our own number come out a little differently, but that is, we feel sure, due to a feature of the British system that we do not yet understand. In any case, Boris Johnson has a big majority.  House of Commons is a link showing the distribution of seats as a result of the election.

Next Wednesday’s Meeting is a January 3 report from The Daily Star on this planned meeting between EU Commission President von der Leyen and Boris Johnson.

After the Brexit Bill is a December 20 story from The Guardian, which, near the end, sets out a timeline for developments up to and after the UK’s January 31 withdrawal from the EU.
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