In this issue:

• Among which demographics do the Boyd Center's Population Projections predict growth?
• The 10 fastest-growing cities in Tennessee, according to 2023 Municipal Estimates
• Considering post-secondary options or careers? State dashboards could help with decision
• A fresh look for the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey

Toplines

Boyd Center Projects Tennessee Population to Hit 7.94 Million by 2040

Our 2022 Population Projections are out, and they show the state is on track to add another 900,000 people over the next 18 years.

The state has already recorded robust population increases in the early 2020s, and by 2030 is expected to grow to 7.51 million people. This 10-year increase of more than 588,000 people is projected to slightly exceed the period between 2010 and 2020 when 570,000 new residents were added.

Through 2030, an annual population growth rate of 0.82 percent is projected. A period of steady, but smaller population gains will follow as the state’s rate of increase slows to 0.55 percent annually between 2030 and 2040. That will put Tennessee on track for a 427,000-person increase over the decade.

Since 1960, Tennessee has added a million people every 20 years. Projections show the state is on pace to continue that trend from 2020 to 2040.

Key Projection Highlights for 2040

• The state’s senior population will increase by 25 percent and add 305,000 people over age 65 by 2040.
• The fastest-growing age group is people 85 years and older, adding over 85,000 people—a 72 percent increase.
• Prime-age workers (age 25 to 55) will add nearly 300,000 people—a 10.8 percent increase by 2040.
• 60 percent of the state’s population growth by 2040 is projected to be among Hispanics, Black or African Americans, other races, or people who are more than one race.
• More than half of the state’s counties will record an annual population loss.

Nashville Rebounds in 2023 Municipal Population Estimates

The Census Bureau’s 2023 population estimate data show that middle-Tennessee communities Nashville, Clarksville, Lebanon, and Murfreesboro were the state’s four fastest-gaining cities last year. And revised numbers show Nashville also added the most population in 2022, making it two straight years the Music City topped the charts.

That still leaves the Tennessee capital below its 2020 population mark, which saw a reported uptick in moves out of the area during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Clarksville’s growth of nearly 4,000 people placed it second on the list in 2023. For the decade, the 181,000-person community located northwest of Nashville has added 13,200 new residents—more than any other municipality in the state. The City of Lebanon ranked third and displaced Murfreesboro (#4) from the top three for the first time this decade.

Table 1: Ten Fastest-Gaining Tennessee Cities in 2023 (July 1, 2022-July 1, 2023)

Source: Vintage 2023 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.

This year’s top 10 also includes three East Tennessee communities—Chattanooga (#5), Alcoa (#8), and Knoxville (#10)—along with three other Nashville metro municipalities: Gallatin (#6), Columbia (#7), and Spring Hill (#9).

A Closer Look at Municipal Population Trends

We stepped back to examine how population changes across Tennessee's 345 cities and towns have unfolded over this decade. Half of Tennessee’s 200,000 new residents this decade reside in a municipality. That equates to a 2.4 percent rate of growth since 2020, slightly under the state’s 2.9 percent pace.

Our new analysis showed the state's midsized cities (Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville and Murfreesboro) leading the pack. They were joined by fast-growing suburban communities and a small group of outlying cities at the edge of the urban area that are growing four times faster than the state as a whole.

Read the Breakdown on Our Website

Around the State

Tennessee Introduces Dashboards to Track High School Graduates' Education and Employment

Census Bureau’s 2010-2020 Intercensal Estimates Release Set

A Nov. 7, 2024, release date is expected for the 2010-2020 Intercensal Population Estimates. This important product provides a consistent time series connecting the 2010 Census to the 2020 Census and will become the official annual population estimate once released.

The initial products will include annual totals for the nation, states, counties, and subcounty areas. Next year, an additional intercensal release with breakdowns by age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity down to the county level will be available.



Intercensal estimates have many applications, including creating long-term time series, developing projections, and improving rates from the last decade when population is used as a denominator.

Kuhn Elected to FSCPE Steering Committee

Tennessee State Data Center Director Tim Kuhn was elected to a second term on the Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates Steering Committee (FSCPE), with the term ending September 2026. Kuhn also serves as the organization’s Secretary and chairs the group’s Data Input Subcommittee which is focused on supporting the 50-state collaborative in providing input to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Unit Estimates program.