Weather

It was a another mild and dry week. We had a couple of really cool mornings which were really nice.

Temperatures are a little higher this weekend then back down to milder temperatures next week. Looks like another week with no rain. We are getting dry and need a rain bad.

Arkansas and Mississippi River

Arkansas Corn and Soybean Cash and Booking Market Reports September 27, 2024

by Brian Deaton Associate Professor - UAM College of Forestry, Agriculture, and Natural Resources, Monticello and Extension Economist, UA Division of Agriculture, Jason Kelley Professor and Extension Agronomist – Wheat & Feed Grains University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service, Little Rock, and Jeremy Ross Professor and Extension Agronomist – Soybean University of Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service, Little Rock

This report is a weekly newsletter summarizing cash market and forward price quotes from selected markets as reported to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service in Arkansas.

Soybeans

Soybean harvest continues across the county. Soybeans are drying down fast and changing weekly. I have talked to several producers that are amazed at how fast things are changing.

We have a good harvest window to get everything done. We should be harvesting the soybean variety demo within in the next couple of weeks.

Wheat

Resistant ryegrass infestations require a program approach. This includes tillage/herbicide of first “flush” of ryegrass followed by sequential program of Axiom, Axiom + Prowl, or Zidua/Anthem Flex in fall followed by Axial Bold in spring. Residuals are key! One year fallow without allowing seed production typically reduces soil seed bank 95%.

AFGC Fall Forage Conference "Forages, Financials, and Feeds" November 1, 2024 Conway Cowboy Church

Kenny Simon, UADA Forages Instructor

The end of the growing season is a time to reflect on forage supply, animal demand, and the economics of running a profitable operation. However, the end of the growing season does not have to mean that the grazing season ends as well. Preparation for winter grazing starts in the fall. “Forages, Financials, and Feeds” is the theme of the 2024 AFGC Fall Forage Conference with presentations on financial outlooks as well as strategic hay feeding for the soil, plant, and animal. The afternoon will include field demonstrations and discussions on stockpiling bahiagrass, planting cool-season annuals, and identifying nutritional needs beyond the growing season. Anyone wanting to strengthen their off-season forage program should attend this conference. Registration starts at 8:30 am and the conference kicks off at 9 am. Registration can be paid at the door by cash, credit or debit card, or check. The conference fee is $35 per person and $15 for students. Pre-registration is encouraged to help with conference and lunch planning. To pre-register, scan the QR code or contact Jake Cartwright 501-912-1602 or jake.cartwright@arfb.com.

The Conway Cowboy Church is located at 12 AR-36, Conway, AR 72032. To reach the church take Hwy 64 from Conway or Beebe and turn north on Hwy 36 across from the Eight Mile Store.

Cool Season Grass Planting Fact Sheets

Last Hay Harvest

Somebody recently asked me, "Now that I have done the last cutting of hay is there some kind of fertilize that I need to put out for winter?" I pondered this question and responded that maybe some potash, but honestly I couldn't think of any fertilizer that would help.

The more I thought about it and the winter conditions we have had the last few years I did realize something we could do. I think we need to look at raising our cutting heights at that last harvest. If you think about it, we aren't going to get much growth between now and the grass going dormant. I think cutting low the last few years with no regrowth or height left on the plant has led to some of our winterkill issues. So my recommendation is move that cutting height up on the last harvest.

I would like to do some demos on this next year to see how much this could help.

Sweet Vernal Grass Demonstration

I had a producer approach me last year about herbicide control of sweet vernal grass in his bahiagrass. I wasn't sure I had ever seen sweet vernal grass, so I went to his place this past spring and wow, he had it everywhere. What was funny, was after that I seemed to see it everywhere. I guess I had just not noticed it that much.

Sweet vernal grass is a cool season grass, so we decided to put out a demonstration to see if any pre-emerges will help. This past week we put out some Rezilon, Prowl and Facet to see if we could get any pre control. I am trying to get ahead of the grass germinating, but with no rain in the forecast I took a chance getting these sprayed and not activated. I really need a rain to get them activated. We will see how it goes.

An Update on Herd Rebuilding

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist

The biggest question in the cattle industry continues to be that of herd rebuilding. Specifically, there are questions regarding the status of the beef cow herd in 2024 and, more importantly, how is the industry setting up for 2025 and beyond. Beef herd expansion involves two components: reduced cow culling and increased heifer retention. Direct measures of the cow herd inventory and replacement heifer inventories are only available in the January 1 USDA-NASS Cattle report, with the next release in late January 2025. In the meantime, it is challenging to determine what is happening in 2024.   

There is data on beef cow slaughter through the year that does indicate the beef cow herd culling rate. The final rate is usually expressed annually as total annual beef cow slaughter as percent of the January 1 beef cow inventory. The annual beef cow slaughter total will not be available until after the end of the year. In the first 37 weeks of 2024, beef cow slaughter is down 16.3 percent year over year. Monthly beef cow slaughter can be expressed as a percentage of total cattle slaughter. On an annual basis, beef cow slaughter as a percent of total cattle slaughter is 97.5 percent correlated with the annual herd culling rate.  A twelve-month moving average of this percentage provides an indication during the year of beef cow herd culling. The blue line in Figure 1 shows this moving average since 1987. The two major cyclical beef herd expansion in the 1990-1996 and 2014-2019 periods shows how beef cow herd slaughter behaves during herd expansion.     

In the two previous herd rebuilds, beef cow slaughter bottomed in 1992 and in 2016. The moving average reflects the previous twelve months suggesting that beef cow slaughter was at a low in the first year of herd expansion in each of these cycles. Figure 1 indicates that beef cow slaughter is declining currently but has not bottomed and is not yet low enough to indicate herd expansion. Moreover, the rate of beef cow slaughter in 2024, although sharply lower year over year, is not down enough to offset the small bred beef heifer inventory at the beginning of the year. The beef cow herd is likely down year over year in 2024.

Figure 1 also contains a similar twelve-month moving average of heifer slaughter as a percentage of total cattle slaughter. Heifer slaughter goes down when heifer retention increases and there is a 72.5 percent correlation (negative) between this slaughter percentage and beef replacement heifer percentage (beef replacement heifers as a percent the beef cow herd inventory). The correlation is strong but less than for cows because heifer slaughter includes more than just beef heifers.

Figure 1 shows that the moving average of heifer slaughter also bottoms during herd expansion, typically about a year later than the cow slaughter moving average. In 2024, the twelve-month moving average of the heifer slaughter percentage of total cattle slaughter has not decreased at all thus far. Both of the measures in Figure 1 suggest that there is only minimal indication of industry movement towards herd rebuilding. The beef cow herd will likely be smaller on January 1, 2025 and has very limited potential to do anything other than stabilize and hold steady in 2025.

Biological Time Lag of Heifer Retention

Mark Z. Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension Beef Cattle Breeding Specialist

It is evident the pace of expansion of the U.S. cow inventory will be slower than past cycles. Several factors will continue to contribute to the slow rebuild. Our beef cow inventory continues to tighten and pushes market prices to record levels. With regard to heifer retention, the questions most of us are asking:

1. Will increased heifer retention (at some point in the future) result in even higher prices?
2. How long will these prices last?

Good questions. Past cattle cycles indicate the answer to the first is most likely yes. When producers begin to retain more heifers to develop as herd replacements, it results in fewer calves going to market. 

The answer to the second questions is this week’s topic. The biological time lag of beef production. The reality of beef production is that what competing animal proteins can accomplish in weeks (broiler production) or months (pork production), will take those of us in the cow-calf sector years to accomplish. The biology of the beef animal is why.

The Time Line

If we selected a high percentage of our spring (2024) born heifer calves to develop as replacements this fall. Next spring (2025), those properly developed replacement heifers would be ready to breed by 14 – 15 months of age. The following spring (2026), those heifers would calve at two years of age. Those calves would be ready to market at weaning in the fall of 2026. Those calves would become yearlings in 2027 and eventually become marketed as finished “A Maturity” finished cattle or beef carcasses six to seven months after entering the feedyard.

Bottomline

As of now there is little evidence of large scale heifer retention across the country. If and when we begin to retain heifers (on a large scale) we are a couple of years away from increasing the cow inventory, and at least 30 months away from increasing the supply of weaned calves, and so on, regarding yearlings and fed cattle. As is always the case in the beef cattle industry, other factors can and will have impact on the market. That being stated, the basic fundamentals of supply and demand favor strong prices for all categories of cattle until cow inventory begins to increase, and that will take some time.

Pesticide Applicator Training

Please call or email and register for the class. You can call and talk to Mindy Beard at the office at 501-329-8344 or email at rbeard@uada.edu

All of these will be held at the Faulkner County Extension Office at 844 Faulkner St, Conway.

November 7 - 6:00 PM

December 6 - 2:00 PM

You can still take the training online if you would like. The link is below.

Sign up for Text Alerts

You can now sign up for text alerts from me throughout the year. I have two areas you can sign up for which includes Faulkner Livestock or Faulkner Ag (Row Crop Updates). To sign up you can follow one of these links or use the QR Codes below.

Pesticide Applicator Trainings - Faulkner County Extension Office

November 7 - 6:00 PM

December 6 - 2:00 PM

AFGC Fall Conference - November 1, Conway Cowboy Church