Fed fallout
The Federal Reserve delivered an expected 25 basis-point hike on Wednesday with Chair Jerome Powell saying policymakers expect to deliver a “couple” more interest-rate increases before putting their aggressive tightening campaign on hold. But traders took heart from his remarks acknowledging that price pressures have started to ease, sending stocks on a rally and pushing the dollar lower. Expect that bullishness to be tested again within weeks by key economic data. (Bloomberg Economics | Feb 2)
Treasury holds auction sizes steady in quarterly refunding as debt limit looms
The Treasury Department plans to hold the size of its auctions for notes and bonds steady between February and April, as the US faces its debt limit. The department said Wednesday it plans to sell $96 billion of Treasury securities next week to refund roughly $67 billion of Treasurys and raise roughly $29 billion in new cash. Holding auction sizes steady for the second quarter in a row comes after the Treasury had reduced auction sizes last fiscal year as the deficit dropped. (The Wall Street Journal | Feb 1)
Housing slump from US to China adds risks to global economy
Property markets look shaky across much of the world, posing another risk to the global economy. Reports this week have shown the US housing slump stretched into a fifth month, China’s home-sales slide continued and UK home prices are on their worst losing streak since 2008. (Bloomberg Wealth | Jan 31)
Liquidity loses top slot as investors’ biggest concern after six years
Liquidity is no longer the biggest worry for traders in financial markets, following a year in which markets survived a series of major shocks without the ability to buy and sell becoming too severely impaired. Instead, volatility has climbed to the top of the list of traders’ concerns in 2023, as rising global interest rates and geopolitical tensions spark big moves in markets, according to a survey of traders by JPMorgan. (Financial Times | Jan 31)
Here are the arguments for a bond comeback
The high starting yield in 2023 could be setting the stage for a bond market comeback. Over the last four and half decades, years that feature higher yields early on often produce higher returns by the end of the year, according to Nuveen’s latest fixed-income report. And after consecutive rate hikes last year, the bond yield in early 2023 is now at its highest level since the global financial crisis. (Institutional Investor | Jan 30)
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