Happy Nearly Fall!

The change of seasons does not mess around in the Hudson Valley. Trees ready for spectacular display as evenings and early mornings tease with energizing and brisk fall air. An abundance of farms in the Hudson Valley are coming to the final rounds with Honey Crisp while Macintosh take center stage for prime picking and abundant varieties ripen for end of September/October feast. The four seasons spoil us in the Hudson Valley! The latest in Hudson Valley events and workshops further down.

There have been a noticeable amount of new subscribers to The Brick lately. Welcome! Thank you also to my established subscribers trooping with me since I formalized this newsletter back in February, 2020, the month before our world went fully upside down. I included a survey in this issue to make sure I'm staying on track with catering to content desired. If you can take a moment to answer, it would be helpful and appreciated.

Fall market in our area kicks off after Labor Day weekend with increased activity through September and October before the historical mid-November slow down. While deals are still happening through the new year, the market generally gets sleepy between holidays with renewed vigor in January. As a sidebar buyers: keep a lookout in November and December. Those can be very good months for a deal, particularly on vacant properties as they are a pure bleed in expense through winter months so sellers could be that much more negotiable. In an election year, the market tends to truncate with a slowing down noticed on approach to Election Day rather than mid-November. (read: slowing down likely as we get into October this year.)

How does timing to close generally look for a market entry on September 15, as an example? There are timeline variables as every property and deal are different. The following example assumes timely action and resolution of any hiccups that can arise on the way to closing, market condition as current sellers market, the buyers and sellers aligned in closing date goal, single family detached residence, title company, attorneys and lender focused on dates (or a nudge realtor that keeps the ball rolling) and the property is a non-luxury property priced solid and effectively marketed. With all those assumptions:

Property enters the market on September 15, if in contract within 30 days (October 15,) closing date anticipated: November 15-December 6. Window fluctuation dependent mostly on whether mortgage processing is involved, title processing duration and party/attorney availability to close around Thanksgiving holiday. While buyer behavior cannot be promised, this seems reasonable based on timelines my clients have consistently experienced in this market condition.

To leverage the most bang out of fall market, having as much of September and/or October is supreme level ideal for a fall market sale.

On tap:

• Inventory, Mortgage Rates and Q1 2025 Outlook: Seller Market or Buyer Market Ahead?
• What causes listings to expire?
• Realtor Fees and New Agreements - The elephant in the room.
• Brick Community Survey - please share your thoughts and help refine content!
• Oldies are Goodies - Top picks in historic homes and Top 10 Luxury Historic Homes
• Key Questions When Interviewing a Realtor - I think these questions could be helpful.
• Upcoming Interviews and Seminars - market conditions, international and seniors.
• Sandi's Stats - I'm all about providing content, but sharing a little yee haw
• Out and About in the Hudson Valley - Events and Workshops in September/October
• It's a wrap!

Here we go!

Inventory, Mortgage Rates and

Q1 Outlook:

Seller or Buyer Market Ahead?

This fall market should continue as a sellers market. Houses priced well and effectively marketed, particularly in lower price points, continue to move swiftly with still a noticeable amount experiencing multiple offer. Yet, buyers have become more discerning. Buyers have more boxes to check now and will generally hold on putting in an offer if key ones are not filled.

The growth trajectory of 2020 through the front end of 2022 is done. Sellers still clinging to days past would be best served accepting this reality rather than clocking up days on market to eventually expire, versus selling in favorable seller market conditions. General rule of thumb: extended time on market is friendly to buyers, not sellers. Negotiating between multiple buyers is generally more fruitful than down with a singular one.

Make no bones about it, I will swoop in on the "sitters" (properties not selling) with my buyer clients in tow and leverage an aging and sitting duck to my clients benefit. As far as I'm concerned, overpriced listings have added to the low inventory we have endured over the past four years as they were never really "inventory" if they were overpriced and expired. Tease is better put.

My seller clients have buyers secured swiftly, but I will only work with sellers that are willing to be realistic as I value my time and personal finance used to support my clients goals. My clients have fared quite well with multi county sales records set, but they opened solid and were supported by highly effective marketing. It is that marriage between solid pricing (which also means maintaining an expert level pulse on the market in order to properly counsel clients on pricing in the first place) and highly effective marketing that lead to successful sales.

Certain lenders have already begun offering lowered rates which could provide buyers an opportunity to jump start ahead of buyers awaiting the Fed meet September 17-18. Frankly, I'm expecting cuts to be a bust coming out of that Fed meet with the wait a disappointment mortgaged buyers with high expectations. It seems the Feds are cooling on inflation with less aptitude for a noticeable cut in September. Rather, certain lenders appear to be hedging their bets on Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 cuts with advance reduction offerings regardless of the upcoming Fed meet. Basically, buyers should be calling around to lenders now.

Ultimately, a weakened jobs report and other economic data has more likelihood of spurring more impactful movement in mortgage rates than response to Fed interest rate cuts. Added to this, elections tend to breed uncertainty along with other wildcards at play that could impact the housing market. There have been changes in buyer dynamic that leave me questioning whether there really would be a tsunami of buyers returning with another trajectory increase in home prices as so many are saying would be the case once rates move into the low to mid 5's. I'm not sold.

Inventory is a key element in supply and demand. The real question I see: do we have more pent up sellers that have been waiting on the sidelines with want/need to sell reaching boiling point or do we have more buyers that want to come back to the market? This is the absolute core question because the answer to this means either more or less inventory. Seller or buyer market. The reality is both sellers and buyers have been affected by the increased rates. Buyers slowed down, sellers pulled back.

As far as interest rates are concerned, I personally believe we will see the level of movement in rates needed to bring a noticeable amount of sellers off the perch beginning Q1 2025, earliest.

Consider the unexpected level of savings buyers went through over the past few years in battle against surging prices. Absurd interest rates on charge cards. Increased taxes. Elevated food costs. I'm not even going to touch on the political environment. I expect Q1 2025 to be an active market. What I question is what market condition will we be in. Will it still be a sellers market? If it is, will it stay a sellers market throughout 2025? My bet is one way or another we are coming out of sellers market condition in 2025. I projected this in March, 2022. I'm holding on that prediction.

Homes available for sale on market (inventory) is up and nearing trending pre-Covid numbers of August, 2019 in both Dutchess and Ulster counties. Putnam and Westchester counties remain at markedly low levels in inventory. During Covid, Dutchess County hit historic rock bottom in inventory with little over 300 active listings available. With 618 listings available as of today, September 10, we are getting there. In pockets around the country, inventory has risen out of a sellers market and into a neutral or buyers market.

I don't expect a "crash" but I do expect an adjust. We simply can't continue on the trajectory we have been on. While still up and the market is still strong for sellers at this time but there has been leveling off from where we were in 2020-2022 in percentage increases. With all that has circled around real estate, no matter what, there will always be sales (the level fluctuates) as regardless of market type, the Five D's remain: Death, Diamonds, Diapers, Divorce and Debt.

What Causes Listings to Expire?

The market is still strong, yet showing discreet signs of softening. Year to Date In Dutchess County 867 single family homes expired (did not sell during the term of listing agreement), 920 in Orange County, 228 in Putnam County, 359 in Ulster County and 1077 in Westchester County, all per OneKeyMLS. That's quite a few homes not selling, particular considering low inventory.

What causes listings to expire? Inaccurate pricing and/or ineffective marketing are top culprits. Even a completely dilapidated property will sell if the appropriate buyers are defined, targeted and reached with solid pricing. An appropriate window of time to sell based on market condition and price point also needs to be factored. Inaccurate pricing can be a realtor that does not keep a firm pulse on the market, a seller that insists on overly aggressive pricing, or both.

If during an initial realtor meeting with a seller, the realtor shares a number totally out of touch with any other number shared by other realtors, it may be prudent to see the realtors listing history for recent listing sales (directly from the MLS) and check it out. Did other listings expire? Were price reductions necessary prior to selling? How long did it take to sell?

If there is an unfavorable pattern when looking at multiple listings that realtor represented, we have a term in my industry for what that inflated number may have been: "blowing smoke to get a listing." It's when a realtor says a high number with intention to reduce in price after getting the listing. The first two weeks of market entry are imperative as you can lead a horse to water with stellar marketing, but if overpriced, the buyers will walk or not come at all.

Reductions later are often far less effective than opening solid in the first place. I've had multiple clients sell $100,000-200,000 over asking with numerous others selling tens of thousands over asking. Opening solid on all fronts is the way to roll.

Realtor Fees and Agreements

Sellers

How are professional fees panning out with listing agents, buyer agents, sellers and buyers...? In a nutshell, buyers and sellers basically have three options each when it comes to professional fees for representation.

This thornball is a barrel of fun and I do not believe these changes are pro consumer for buyers or sellers, but we roll with the cards dealt and carry on. I have late night thoughts, regardless whether "show ready" so prepare for that with this one, but it's solid content. Here's a snapshot of the three key seller options and considerations with those options in this 90 second overview.

Buyers

For over twenty years I existed almost entirely without buyer agreements with the exception of buyers including for sale by owner and other off market transactions in their quest. I have been fortunate and hold gratitude to not have had issue with clients reciprocating loyalty for solid representation on a handshake. The entry of decoupled buyer paid professional fees necessitates formality at the outset. I applaud those now that have been doing agreements all along as this does take getting used to.

The Department of Justice is meeting again in November. There could be changes going forward, but for now there are three main agreements for buyers. The wording can come in different flavors with varied counts on agreement options by brokerage, but below demonstrates core and ups/down of each:

Exclusive agreement.

• If you have aligned with a realtor you trust, it seems fair and reasonable to expect an exclusive agreement. Realtors will generally not include off market searches without either this agreement or identified properties agreement (noted below) in place prior out of value for their time.

Non-Exclusive (two flavors)

1. Identified properties/non exclusive: This agreement provides exclusive representation for properties that are identified by a realtor to their clients. Properties can be identified by any communication method. If a property is shared with a buyer, then that buyer would work exclusively with that realtor to pursue that property. The buyer can also work with other realtors on properties that have not been identified. Off market searches may be included with this type of agreement.
2. One Property Showing/non exclusive: This agreement designates the buyer agent as the exclusive agent for one particular property. This will likely be used most often by buyers that do not have an established relationship with an agent. The upside for the buyer is the ability to see if they align with the realtor. The downside is if a buyer continues in one property showing mode they will likely not realize the same level of service from a realtor as a buyer more committed to the realtor partnership. High caliber realtors value their time and will likely only do one time showing agreements for a few showings. After a few showings, a buyer should have a good feel for the realtor and whether they are aligned to work together.

An interesting point in all this nutty, a key plaintiff in the lawsuits just launched a company that appears to at the least leverage the changes the industry has been making in response these actions. Coincidental seems a bit of a stretch.

Know someone interested in buying or selling that could benefit from this content?

Pass along The Brick!

I strive to provide transparent, informative and relevant content across platforms. In an effort to provide the most focused and beneficial content for Brick subscribers, your feedback in this brief survey would be greatly appreciated!

Willow Lake Farm, Fishkill

Sandi is representing buyer and seller in the upcoming closing of Willow Lake Farm.  The sellers enjoyed extensive national and international exposure along with three buyers in multiple offer, all brought to the table by Sandi, in less than 60 days after seven years on the market with other realtors. Asking price: $4,385,000. Closing in September. Year Built: 1924. 105 acres.

See Full Listing.

Upcoming Interviews and Seminars

TimesUnion/Hearst publication

Latest upcoming interview requested to share expert input on current market conditions in the Hudson Valley. Should publish within the next few weeks.

Buy/Sell in Europe

Next week, I will be interviewing the head of International for top brokerage Hamptons International based in the UK. Joining on this interview is his counterpart with focus on the whole of Europe. In this interview, I will be diving in to differences between the UK and US in buyer and seller representation and the overall process of purchase and sale in Europe. Should you have any questions on the buying or selling process and overall representation in Europe, drop me a line and I will work to have your questions addressed during interview. This interview will post in the next edition of The Brick.

Seniors and Families Helping Seniors

Another interview on tap is focused on seniors and their families. I am a senior transition partner and have found more instances of families going through hoops all the way through the probate process than may be necessary. The discussion will include an estate attorney, CPA, financial advisor, mortgage lender and senior living placement professional. This will be scheduled for November. If interested in attending or if there are specific questions of interest, please do share. I conduct these interviews and seminars as an informative service to consumers and invite suggestions.

Want to sell? Let's Talk!

Client Testimonial

"I couldn't imagine having anyone else in my corner." C. Stolfa

It's a wrap! The right time to sell or buy is when it is the right time for the buyer or seller. If there is interest in selling in fall market, it would be best to get on the market sooner than later in order to leverage the more active window. If you have any questions on the market or any of the funky with the government that's going on - any questions at all - I will always answer to the best of my ability and with transparency.

If you know someone interested in buying or selling, the trust of a referral would be held sacred and appreciated. I take very good care of those that come my way.

Best,

Sandi