The Florida Chamber political team continuously analyzes new voter registration trends, changes to House and Senate districts, and voter behavior as we work to recruit and elect pro-jobs candidates to secure Florida's future. Please share this report with your management team and send us a note if you have questions, perspectives, or recommendations. Florida is at a crossroads and we invite you to help us continue on the right path forward.

In This Issue:

Florida Political Update • Florida's Political Insights, Analysis and Highlights • Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy • Constitutional Amendment Corner • Florida Voter Registration Analysis • Tweets You Can Retweet • Upcoming Events

Patronis, Fine Win Republican Primaries in CD 1 & 6 Special Elections, Additional Specials to Follow

In this month's political edition of Florida By the Numbers, the Florida Chamber's Director of Data and Analytics Alex Coelho looks at the results this week's two special election primaries for vacated Congressional seats, as well as what's to come in the domino effect of special elections. You can watch this month's video HERE for the full analysis from the Florida Chamber's Political Operations.

This month's video covered several key developments as Florida begins 2025, including:

• Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis winning the Republican primary in CD-1 with nearly two-thirds of the vote in a 10 candidate field, and Florida Senator Randy Fine winning his CD-6 GOP primary with over 80 percent of the vote. Patronis and Fine both head to general elections where they are prohibitive favorites.

• Additional special elections upcoming for three Florida legislative seats resulting from the ongoing Congressional special elections.

• The new effort by the "Smart & Safe Florida" committee to place recreational marijuana usage into Florida's Constitution, despite their defeat last November.

For more information on any subject covered in this video, or to find out more about the latest developments of Florida's political landscape, contact Alex Coelho.

• On Tuesday, primaries in the special elections for the 1st and 6th Congressional districts of Florida were held. In the race to replace former Congressman Matt Gaetz in the 1st district, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis won two-thirds of the vote in the Republican primary held Tuesday. Meanwhile in the 6th district Florida Senator Randy Fine won an overwhelming victory in that district's Republican primary as he looks to replace the now-National Security Advisor to President Trump Mike Waltz. To find out more about this week's election results and the upcoming special elections this spring, click HERE to watch a breakdown of results from Florida Chamber Director of Data & Analytics Alex Coelho.

• Earlier this month Governor DeSantis called three additional special elections, this time for seats in the Florida Legislature vacated as a result of the pair of Congressional special elections which are ongoing. These elections, for Senate district 19 and House districts 3 and 32, will all conduct primary elections on April 1st with general elections set for June 10th. All three seats rate as 'Solid Republican' on the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index. As these races develop the Florida Chamber's Political Operations team will continue to inform on the key events of these contest.

• After being defeated at the ballot box last November, the "Smart & Safe Florida" committee has again begun the process of attempting to place an 'Adult Personal Use of Marijuana' amendment into Florida's Constitution. In last November's general election more than 150 million dollars was spent by this committee attempting to make recreational marijuana usage a right within the state's constitution, with the Florida Chamber helping lead the successful effort to oppose passage of this amendment. Amendments seeking placement onto the 2026 general ballot will require more than 880 thousand valid signatures of registered Florida voters, along with passing Constitutional tests on single-subject and clarity.

• Republicans ended 2024 by pushing their advantage over Democrats in voter registration across Florida beyond the 8% mark among all active registered voters. As of December 31, 2024, Florida had 1,157,794 more Republicans than Democrats amongst the 14,246,241 total registered voters in Florida. This lead continues to steadily expand month over month, fueled in no small part by the surge in Republican registrations within Florida's Hispanic communities.

• Florida Chamber Political Institute Begins Preparations for 2026 Elections: The Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), the Florida Chamber's nonpartisan research arm of political operations conducted nearly 100 interviews of candidates across 5 different locations across Florida during the 2024 election cycle, with more than 300 political institute members in attendance across the 5 sites. For more information on these events or the Political Institute in general contact Executive Director Marian Johnson.

• Interested in a Corporate Political Briefing?: Contact Frank Walker to schedule your customized corporate political briefing so your management team can better understand Florida's political landscape - an exclusive benefit for Florida Chamber Board of Governor members. 

• Exclusive Member Benefit: Be the first to know of changes to districts and counties through the Florida Partisan Performance Index. Discuss with Alex Coelho today.  

• Florida Free Enterprise Fund, a Florida Chamber initiative aimed at recruiting and electing pro-jobs candidates and advancing pro-Florida issues, invites your company to join to help Secure Florida's Future. E-mail Frank Walker to get involved today.

• The Florida Institute for Political Leadership (FIPL) is partnering with local chambers of commerce and hosting virtual candidate schools on how to run a winning local political campaign. With over 6,200 local elections in the coming years, we're working with local chambers of commerce to help educate local business leaders about local opportunities to serve. Click here to register and learn more.

• Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI). Learn more here.

• Keep up-to-date on Florida's economy by checking out The Florida Scorecard.

Chamber Members can access exclusive political intel here:

Earlier this month the "Smart & Safe Florida" political committee, sponsors of 2024's failed Amendment 3 entitled 'Adult Personal Use of Marijuana', introduced and filed a new initiative to again attempt to place recreational marijuana usage into the Florida Constitution, this time via the 2026 election ballot. The new filed proposed amendment, again entitled 'Adult Personal Use of Marijuana' was approved to begin the process of collecting petitions by the Florida Division of Elections on January 14th.

This past fall, the Florida Chamber partnered with Governor and Casey DeSantis, law enforcement officials, and local business leaders across Florida to help defeat Amendment 3. This effort to protect Florida's Constitution was successful despite a campaign of more than 150 million dollars spent by "Smart & Safe Florida" attempting to pass the amendment, a campaign funded almost in its entirety by Florida's largest medicinal marijuana Trulieve.

Upon its defeat in November, Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson stated “Amendment 3 was bad for Florida and even worse for Floridians. This pro drug amendment was bad for our kids, bad for our communities, bad for our local business, and ultimately bad for Florida. The Florida Chamber was proud to stand with Governor DeSantis to unite community and business leaders across Florida to help ensure this amendment’s defeat.”

Beginning anew for the 2026 election cycle, "Smart & Safe Florida" as well as the sponsors of the 20 other active initiatives filed with the Division of Elections seeking placement on the 2026 general election ballot will have to start from scratch in accumulating the more than 880 thousand valid signatures of registered Floridians that will be required for ballot placement. The Florida Chamber's political operations team has always made protecting our state's foundational document a top priority

Republicans End 2025 With a Lead of More than 8% of Active Registered Voters Over Democrats in Florida, Double Up Democrats with Hispanic Registrants in 2024

As 2025 began the Florida Division of Elections provided its final update of the status of voter registration in Florida for calendar year 2024. This latest voter file release from the Division detailed active voter registration across Florida as of December 31, 2024, and showed Republicans leading Democrats by 1,157,794 active registrants statewide. This lead now reflects a still-growing plurality for Republicans of more than 8% of all active voters over Democrats, a lead built entirely over the past three years.

As previous editions of the Florida Chamber's Situation Report have highlighted, one of the primary drivers of this growing Republican lead in registration has been a significant shift in registration patterns amongst newly registered Hispanic voters of Florida. With now all of 2024's registration data accounted for, one sees that, in a complete reversal of patterns seen less than a decade ago, Republicans more than doubled Democrats in registration within the Hispanic community in 2024.

Florida's Hispanic community accounted for almost one-quarter of all new voter registrations in 2024 (206,521 of the 841,155 new active registrations within the Florida voter file from this past year), and for the first time ever saw a plurality of these Hispanic registrants opt to register as Republicans rather than either Democratic or NPA/Other over the course of 2024. As Florida continues to see its political landscape shifting to deeper shades of Republican red, this realigning shift within the Hispanic community is a primary engine of the changes seen.

Congrats @AshleyMoodyFL on your appointment by @GovRonDeSantis to the United States Senate! Florida will continue to be well-represented in our nation’s capital!

Florida is making strides in reducing childhood poverty! Since 2016, 218,852 fewer children are living in poverty, with 714,768 remaining. Although we are moving in the right direction, there’s still much work to do. Watch the data breakdown and our EVP @KyleBaltuch 's reaction here: https://flchm.co/3C7UlnO.

See the data:

County insights: http://TheFloridaScorecard.org

Zip code level realities: http://TheFloridaGapMap.org

Be sure to join us May 29 at the Florida Prosperity & Economic Opportunity Solution Summit in Daytona Beach, where we’ll address root causes of poverty, actionable solutions and how to keep this momentum moving forward. Learn more and register at https://flchm.co/Prosperity2025.

2025 Legislative Fly-In - February 10-11, 2025

2025 Leadership Conference on Health, Safety + Sustainability - May 15-16, 2025

2025 Florida Prosperity & Economic Opportunity Summit - May 29, 2025

2025 Future of Florida Forum (F3) & Florida Chamber Annual Meeting - October 27-28, 2025

Florida Chamber Safety Council On-Demand Trainings

To learn more, run for office, or help the Florida Chamber, please contact:

Frank Walker, Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations

O: 850-521-1211 | E: fwalker@flchamber.com

Marian Johnson, Executive Director, Florida Chamber Political Institute

C: 850-212-7073 | E: marianjohnson@flchamber.com

Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Political Affairs and Coalition Advocacy

O: 850-521-1240 | E: awiggins@flchamber.com

Alex Coelho, Director of Data & Analytics

O: 850-521-1250 | E: acoelho@flchamber.com