The Florida Chamber political team continuously analyzes new voter registration trends, changes to House and Senate districts, and voter behavior as we work to recruit and elect pro-jobs candidates to secure Florida's future. Please share this report with your management team and send us a note if you have questions, perspectives, or recommendations. Florida is at a crossroads and we invite you to help us continue on the right path forward.

In This Issue:

Florida Political Update • Florida's Political Insights, Analysis and Highlights • Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy • New Florida Chamber Statewide Polling • Constitutional Amendment Corner Florida Voter Registration Update • Tweets You Can Retweet • Upcoming Events

Over 6 Million Floridians' Votes Already Cast, Republicans Outperforming Democrats in Turnout to-Date

With just 5 days remaining until Election Day 2024, millions of Florida voters have already made their voices heard on the future of both our state and nation. While we cannot know the exact details of how these votes have been cast thus far, we can break down the info we do have to see that Republicans have been outperforming Democrats in both raw vote terms and as a share of their total active registration in votes cast thus far.

As of the 8am Division of Election update for October 31st, Republicans have cast 727,271 more votes than Democrats across Florida. This represents an 11.7% advantage by registration among the 6,225,974 votes cast thus far. Just over half (51%) of the active Republican registration population has voted thus far, compared to 47% of the Democratic total and just 34% of No Party Affiliation/Other Party voters.

Central to the development of this lead for Republicans has been their dominance among early in-person voters. While Democrats have steadily held a 6 to 7 point lead by registration over Republicans among those electing to Vote by Mail in Florida, Republicans have from the very first day of in-person early voting constituted a majority of those casting ballots via this method. With a nearly 24 percentage point lead over Democrats among these early voters Republicans hold a lead that, if it holds through the closing days of early vote, would be even larger than the 22-point edge seen for them in the GOP landslide of 2022 among people voting in this manner.

The ratio of Vote-by-Mail to early vote is also skewing far more in Republicans' favor thus far than in either 2020 or 2022. Compared to the most recent Presidential election of 2020, Vote-by-Mail ballots cast are 1.7 million fewer while early in-person voting stands 600 thousand votes higher than at the comparable date of the 2020 election cycle.

With just 5 days left the unanswered question is whether or not Democrats will be able to turn out enough of their voters to at least somewhat lessen the substantial turnout disparity they presently face. While there are still more registered Republicans than Democrats who have yet to vote in this general election, the overall composition of this remaining voter pool is about 7 points more favorable for Democrats than the already voted totals. This presents their party and candidates with at least the potential to close this gap in the final days, though there can be little doubt that Florida's electorate this year will have a clear Republican registration lean to it at a level not seen in any modern Florida Presidential election.

• More than 6 million Floridians have already voted in the 2024 general election as of the morning of October 31st, well over half of what final turnout will be. By party registration, Republicans hold a lead of nearly 12 percentage points over Democrats among those who've already voted. FCPI and Free Enterprise Fund members can read daily breakdowns on what the Florida Chamber Political Operations team is learning from early voting by accessing ChamberHub

• The latest polling from the Florida Chamber shows former President Donald Trump and Senator Rick Scott leading Democratic opponents as the November general election is just days away. The Chamber's poll has Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a 51%-45% margin among Florida voters, and Scott leading his opponent former Congressman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 51%-46% in Florida's US Senate race. This statewide poll also found Amendment 3, the "Adult Personal Use of Marijuana" amendment continues to be short of the 60% threshold required for statewide passage. Click HERE to read the full release.

• Republicans' ended the registration period for the 2024 general election with a 7-figure registration lead over Democrats across Florida. Republicans lead Democrats by 1,077,927 active registered voters across Florida as of October 7, 2024, the last day a Floridian could register to vote in time for this year's general election. This constitutes a lead of 7.7% among the 13,949,168 total voters actively registered for this year's election.

• FCPI Completes Another Successful Round of Candidate Interviews: The Florida Chamber Political Institute, the Florida Chamber's nonpartisan research arm of political operations, recently completed its interviews of legislative candidates for the 2024 election cycle. The institute and members conducted nearly 100 interviews of candidates across 5 different locations across Florida, with more than 300 political institute members in attendance across the 5 sites. For more information on these events or the Political Institute in general contact Executive Director Marian Johnson.

• Interested in a Corporate Political Briefing?: Contact Frank Walker to schedule your customized corporate political briefing so your management team can better understand Florida's political landscape - an exclusive benefit for Florida Chamber Board of Governor members. 

• Exclusive Member Benefit: Be the first to know of changes to districts and counties through the Florida Partisan Performance Index. Discuss with Alex Coelho today.  

• Florida Free Enterprise Fund, a Florida Chamber initiative aimed at recruiting and electing pro-jobs candidates and advancing pro-Florida issues, invites your company to join to help Secure Florida's Future. E-mail Frank Walker to get involved today.

• The Florida Institute for Political Leadership (FIPL) is partnering with local chambers of commerce and hosting virtual candidate schools on how to run a winning local political campaign. With over 6,200 local elections in the coming years, we're working with local chambers of commerce to help educate local business leaders about local opportunities to serve. Click here to register and learn more.

• Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI). Learn more here.

• Keep up-to-date on Florida's economy by checking out The Florida Scorecard.

Chamber Members can access exclusive political intel here:

The most recent Florida Chamber statewide poll released this past week found both Donald Trump and Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents among likely Florida voters. Trump and Scott each lead their respective opponents by double digits among Hispanics and NPAs.

The Florida Chamber’s new poll also found Governor DeSantis retaining strong approval among Floridians and Floridians remaining optimistic about the direction of the state.

“With more than 2 million Floridians having already cast their ballots and less than two weeks until Election Day, Florida voters remain bullish on Florida’s statewide leaders and the direction of our state,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Mark Wilson. “The Florida Chamber’s political operations team is actively working to ensure the right candidates and causes prevail at the ballot box by uniting the business community behind their campaigns. Florida’s continued economic momentum depends on supporters of free enterprise making their voices heard on November 5th.”

Trump and Scott Lead Democratic Opponents in Florida; Enjoy Strong NPA/Hispanic Support

The Florida Chamber’s poll shows that if the election for President of the United States were held today in Florida, former President Donald Trump would defeat Vice President Kamala Harris by a six-point margin, 51%-45%. Trump’s lead over Harris comes in part from holding a sizable lead among NPA voters in Florida, with 52% of this key demographic in favor of Trump’s election compared to 42% of NPAs who would vote for Vice President Harris. Among Hispanics, Trump holds an equally impressive lead, with 55% support for Trump compared to 44% for Harris.

Throughout the fall, polling at both the national and state levels have shown a sharply widening gender gap between the two Presidential candidates, and this is also reflected in the Florida Chamber’s poll. Among men in Florida, Trump leads by a commanding 20 points, 58%-38%, while Harris holds a seven-point lead with women in Florida, 52%-45%. This net 27% difference by gender is nearly triple what previous elections have seen in terms of this gender gap.

In the race for US Senate in Florida, the Florida Chamber’s poll finds incumbent Senator Rick Scott with a five-point lead over his Democratic opponent, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott earns the support of 51% of Floridians polled for his re-election bid, compared to 46% support for Mucarsel-Powell. Much like in the presidential election, Scott’s lead is built by maintaining strong support from Hispanic voters, as 56% support his re-election compared to 39% who would vote for Mucarsel-Powell. Scott also enjoys support from 50% of NPA voters compared to 44% for his challenger and among older voters, with 52% of this group supporting him while 45% support Mucarsel-Powell.

DeSantis Job Approval Remains High in Midst of Hurricane Recovery Efforts

Floridians continue to show strong support overall for the job Governor DeSantis has done in office, with 57% of Florida voters holding a favorable view of the Governor. Governor DeSantis receives particularly high marks from Floridians on his administration’s response to the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton, with more than three-fourths (76%) of Florida voters approving of how DeSantis and his team have handled the recovery efforts.

Amendment 3 Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage

The Florida Chamber’s poll also found that fewer than 6 out of 10 (57%) Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana, the fifth consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating that this amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage. The lack of movement in support from Floridians over the past year comes despite $111 million being raised to promote this amendment, over $102 million of which has come from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana provider. This failure to build momentum for the amendment in polling displays that the more voters learn about Amendment 3, the less they like what they learn. Passage or failure will come down to turnout.

Policies Enacted by the Biden-Harris Administration Continue to be Unpopular Among Floridians

The Florida Chamber’s poll shows more than half (54%) of Florida voters believe policies enacted by the Biden-Harris administration have made America’s economy worse, whereas only 33% believe their policies have made it better. Additionally, more than half (60%) of NPAs, more than half (56%) of Hispanics, and more than half (54%) of older voters believe the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies have had a negative impact on America’s economy.

Florida Continues to Head in the Right Direction, While the United States is Overwhelmingly Seen as Being on the Wrong Track

Florida voters believe Florida is headed in the right direction by a 53%-39% margin, showing significantly more optimism about Florida’s trajectory than that of the nation. By a 2-to-1 margin of 64%-28%, Floridians believe the United States is currently on the wrong track.

Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida

Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats since the last publicly released Florida Chamber poll in August. The Republican voter registration lead across Florida eclipsed 1 million voters at the end of July, a mark that continues to grow. This lead comes even though Democrats held an outright voter registration advantage as recently as October 2021.

The voter registration book closing update from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Republicans held a statewide advantage of 1,077,927 active voters over Democrats. As of October 7, 2024, Florida had 5,499,717 registered Republicans compared to 4,421,790 registered Democrats and 4,027,661 registered NPAs or members of minor parties. This gives Republicans a lead of more than 7% of all registered voters over Democrats in Florida.

Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives

With all 120 House seats and half of Florida Senate seats on the 2024 ballot, the Florida Chamber leads the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute, and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations, Frank Walker, at fwalker@flchamber.com. 

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 10-20, 2024, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 222 Democrats, 267 Republicans and 125 others for a total of 614 respondents statewide.

Campaigns Backing Amendments 3 & 4 Surpass Quarter-Billion Dollars of Fundraising

The paid-petition constitutional amendment efforts on Florida's ballot this year are proving to be some of the most expensive political campaigns seen in the state's history. Between the fundraising of 'Smart & Safe Florida', backers of Amendment 3's efforts to legalize recreational marijuana, and 'Floridians Protecting Freedom, Inc.', the sponsors of Amendment 4's attempt to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida Constitution, over a quarter-billion dollars has been raised by these two political committees in their efforts to reach 60% support across Florida.

With another 2 million added to its total on October 29th, Smart & Safe Florida's fundraising hit the 150 million dollar mark for the election cycle. Of this total, a whopping 95 percent of this funding (142 million dollars worth) has come exclusively from Trulieve, the largest medicinal marijuana dispenser in Florida.

Despite this influx of financial support from Trulieve, Smart & Safe Florida's 9-figure campaign has failed to demonstrate an ability to move the needle with the Florida electorate. The most recent Florida Chamber poll conducted earlier this month was the 5th consecutive Chamber poll to show support for Amendment 3 under the 60% threshold needed for passage. While all 5 polls have seen support within the margin of error of the 60 percent mark, the consistency of this polling by the Chamber shows Floridians remaining skeptical of the implications of passage. The Florida Chamber has been among the leaders in highlighting the issues this amendment could cause, and those looking for more information on the business community's opposition to this amendment should go to FLBizAgainst3.com for more information.

While not funded almost exclusively by one motivated investor as with the Amendment 3 efforts, Floridians Protecting Freedom, Inc. has been able to tap into support from a number of progressive donors and organizations to fund its own 9-figure campaign of support for their efforts on abortion law. Floridians Protection Freedom, Inc. has raised $110 million dollars in support of Amendment 4's passage, having already spent more than 95 million of this according to campaign finance filings with the Florida Division of Elections.

These two amendments reflect the ever increasing cost of political engagement in Florida. Even as statewide election results have seen a rightward shift in recent years, the battleground of Florida politics remains as aggressively contested as ever even if the new frontier of these fights is shifting toward attempts to change Florida's Constitution.

Republicans Extend Lead in Final Bookclosing Figures for 2024 General Election

As the last day to register for the 2024 general election came and went in Florida back on October 7th, Republicans secured for themselves the largest statewide registration lead they've had in our state's history. At bookclosing, the Republican lead in active registration over Democrats stood at 1,077,927 voters.

The lead gives Republicans an almost 8 percentage point advantage over Democrats statewide, and represents a net swing of nearly 9 points since the most recent Presidential election of 2020 when Democrats held a registration advantage of just under 1 percent over Republicans.

#Amendment3 is bad for our local biz, families and communities. Let's not California our Florida.

Ck out this special message from our President & CEO Mark Wilson to learn why the @FLChamber, in partnership w/ Secure Florida's Future, Inc., is opposed to this amendment.

More resources to help you make informed decisions at the ballot box on Nov 5:

Visit our "Amendment 3: Bad for Florida Business" employer-to-employee site to learn more about the amendment's negative implications: https://flchm.co/3BL9PNK

Access our 2024 Florida Election Guide, which provides a pro-business, non-partisan look at your ballot choices: https://flchm.co/4f19epz

Be sure to share these resources with your colleagues, friends, family and network!

During the last #F3 panel, our political team dove into the key issues and trends shaping the upcoming election in November. For insights into the choices you face on the November ballot, check out our recently released 2024 Florida Voter Guide here: https://flchm.co/4f19epz and our Amendment 3 website here: [https://flchm.co/3BL9PNK] #2024Election #PoliticalPerspectives

ICYMI : With 2 million Floridians already casting ballots, the latest Florida Chamber poll shows both Donald Trump and Rick Scott leading in key demographics, including NPAs and Hispanic voters. Click here to read more: https://flchm.co/3NJBdhO

2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit - December 3, 2024

2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit - December 3-5, 2024

2025 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit - January 30, 2025

2025 Legislative Fly-In - February 10-11, 2025

Florida Chamber Safety Council On-Demand Trainings

To learn more, run for office, or help the Florida Chamber, please contact:

Frank Walker, Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations

O: 850-521-1211 | E: fwalker@flchamber.com

Marian Johnson, Executive Director, Florida Chamber Political Institute

C: 850-212-7073 | E: marianjohnson@flchamber.com

Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Political Affairs and Coalition Advocacy

O: 850-521-1240 | E: awiggins@flchamber.com

Alex Coelho, Director of Data & Analytics

O: 850-521-1250 | E: acoelho@flchamber.com