Friday evening in a interview with CBS News Miami reporter Jim DeFede, Senator Jason Pizzo confirmed his long-rumored intentions to run for Florida Governor in 2026. Pizzo, the former Senate Democratic Leader who notably left the party to become a No Party Affiliate voter late last month, stated that he intends to launch an independent bid for the Governor's Mansion kickstarted by a significant self-funding commitment.

Pizzo's announcement, which he has said will be followed by a formal campaign launch in September, adds an additional variable into the 2026 Florida political landscape. Pizzo is likely to be the most notable statewide candidate from outside the two main parties since Charlie Crist's independent bid for the US Senate in 2010, though this is admittedly a very low bar to surpass when one looks at results since Crist's 30% showing in his Senate bid. Florida is historically very hostile ground for non-major party bids. In 1916 Sydney Johnston Catts was elected Governor of Florida as a Prohibition Party nominee, a run which followed a narrow loss in the Democratic primary that year. But since Catts' win not only has Florida not elected a Governor from outside the two main parties, no such nominee has surpassed even 5% of the statewide vote for Governor in the more than a century since.

A run without major party support carries with it a host of challenges, but perhaps the two greatest that will face Sen. Pizzo are partisan loyalty and organizational deficiencies. It's no secret that Florida and American politics alike are being fiercely contested along sharp partisan lines in a way not often seen in American political history. The mere presence of a party label next to a candidate's name carries with it a large share of almost guaranteed support for any nominee broadly deemed acceptable by the voters. A party nomination also brings with it a veritable army of grassroots supporters, thousands of dedicated party volunteers and local leaders who amplify a candidate's message to the doors and phones of their neighborhoods, cities or counties. Any independent or minor party candidate seeking to run statewide has to attempt to replicate such a campaign infrastructure from scratch, something substantial financial commitments Pizzo has pledged to draw (including $25 million in personal funds) could bridge, but to what extent remains uncertain.

The 2026 election cycle is still in its infancy, with 18 months to go until next year's general elections. Pizzo's impact on the gubernatorial race will come into greater focus in the coming months, and whether he draws support primarily from his former party in the form of centrist Democrats or galvanizes support among the 29% of all voters registered as NPA (No Party Affiliation) or minor party voters who have tended to lean Republican in recent elections remains to be seen. But Pizzo's decision to seek the Governor's Mansion will have repercussions down ballot as well.

Pizzo Announcement Could Re-Shape 2026 Florida Senate Landscape

Heading into the 2026 election cycle, the Florida Senate already stands to take on a more prominent component of the political landscape than it did in 2024 when only the Tallahassee-centered 3rd District featured a high profile general election contest. That was ultimately won by Republican incumbent Corey Simon, but as the map shifts to the even-numbered districts of the Florida Senate the landscape is less decided. The 2026 map features much more variety of competitive or potentially competitive races as Democrats look to make inroads into the 28-12 Republican advantage in the Florida Senate the GOP won in the 2022 elections and maintained last year. Democrats looking to play offense will point to contests in the greater Orlando, Tampa/St Petersburg, and Miami regions with varying degrees of optimism.

Republicans looking at ways to expand upon their 28 seats in the Florida Senate find next year's map generating few options for going on offense. At present the 26th District, an open seat race due to Sen. Lori Berman being term limited, would be the only Democratic-held district not rated a Solid Democratic district on the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index. Former Representative Rick Roth is already seeking to be the Republican nominee in the 26th next year, a district where Governor DeSantis won 48% of the vote in 2022 and President Trump 47% last year. While District 26 has seen close results at the top of the ticket, it still represents an uphill battle for Republicans seeking a Senate seat to pickup.

Under Florida's "resign to run" law however the prospect of a Pizzo gubernatorial candidacy raises the possibility of a special election to fill the remain two years of the term Pizzo was elected to in 2024. Pizzo won re-election to the Senate last November by 16 points over his Republican opponent, a number which masks the increasingly competitive nature of the 37th District. While Pizzo easily dispatched of an underfunded opponent with a history of comments incompatible with the region, Republicans have made great gains in this coastal east Broward & northeastern Miami-Dade district. Much like other districts through the southeast, the competitiveness of the 37th has dramatically changed: on the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index the district moved from a Leans Democratic seat on the 2024 map to a Swing district heading into the 2026 election cycle.

Above: Map of Florida Senate seats on 2026 ballot, rated according to the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index.

Map includes still unofficial open race in Senate District 37

Senate District 37's shift has been in the same dramatic and unmistakable way as many parts of Florida have seen over the past few years, particular in those areas of Florida with higher than average Hispanic populations such as the 37th where nearly a quarter of all registered voters are Hispanic. These swings within the Hispanic community are added to the significant gains seen by Republicans among Jewish voters as well, with the 37th home to one of the larger populations of Jewish voters among Florida's 40 Senate districts.

The past two gubernatorial elections highlight the way the political geography of the 37th District has changed. A district won by Democrat Andrew Gillum by 20 points in 2018 became a DeSantis district in 2022, with the Governor winning the seat narrowly over Charlie Crist. Lest it be thought this was a one-time flip due to the historic margin of DeSantis' victory in Florida, President Trump won the 37th in the 2024 general election by a slightly larger 1.4% margin despite his overall margin of victory statewide being six-points lower than that of DeSantis in '22.

Above: 2018 and 2022 results for Florida Governor by precinct in Senate District 37.

In a potential special election environment these strong shifts toward Republicans would be supplemented by multiple additional strengths the GOP would have in this race. The most obvious is the overwhelming financial advantages of the Senate Republican caucus when compared with their Democratic counterparts, an advantage that would have particular relevance in the high dollar Miami-Ft Lauderdale media market. Another is the general rising tide of Republican fortunes in the region that would present a deeper bench of candidates than historically would have existed in this part of Florida. Among the potential names to watch would be two current members of the Florida Legislature who represent significant portions of the 37th in the House in Representatives Chip LaMarca and Hillary Cassel.

Despite these recent shifts a Republican pickup in the 37th is far from assured. The trends seen at the top of the ticket will still need to translate down ballot, and Democrats come into any special election scenario with a strong candidate waiting in the wings. Last year former Senator Lauren Book, Pizzo's predecessor as Senate Democratic Leader, began raising money for a prospective campaign in the 37th when it would naturally come onto the ballot in 2028. Book, who represented the neighboring 35th Senate District until term-limited last year, has already amassed nearly 200 thousand dollars in her campaign account for that run and possesses one of the strongest fundraising networks of any Democrat in Florida politics.

For a deeper dive political analysis into Senate District 37 or any of the 120 House or 40 Senate seats of the Florida Legislature, contact Alex Coelho. And to learn more about ways your company can support the Florida Chamber's efforts to elect pro-job champions of free enterprise, contact Frank Walker.

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