June 12, 2025

The Florida Chamber political team continuously analyzes new voter registration trends, changes to House and Senate districts, and voter behavior as we work to recruit and elect pro-jobs candidates to secure Florida's future. Please share this report with your management team and send us a note if you have questions, perspectives, or recommendations. Florida is at a crossroads and we invite you to help us continue on the right path forward.

In This Issue:

Florida Political Update Florida's Political Insights, Analysis and Highlights Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy • Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll • Florida Voter Registration Analysis • Tweets You Can Retweet • Upcoming Events

Florida Political Update

Republicans Hold Trio of Legislative Seats in Special Elections Tuesday; Latest 2026 Election Landscape Developments

In this month's political edition of Florida By the Numbers, the Florida Chamber's Director of Data and Analytics Alex Coelho looks at some of the key political developments across the state of Florida in recent weeks. Click HERE for the full analysis of these election results from the Florida Chamber's Political Operations.


This month's video highlighted the latest political news from across Florida, including:


  • Florida Chamber-backed candidates go 3 for 3 in legislative special elections. A trio of special legislative elections took place in Brevard and Okaloosa/Santa Rosa counties Tuesday. In Brevard, Debbie Mayfield was returned to the 19th district Senate seat she had held until this past November with a 9-point victory over Democrat Vance Ahrens while Brian Hodgers succeeded Mayfield in House District 32. Republican Nathan Boyles additional won election to represent HD-3 in Santa Rosa & Okaloosa counties. All 3 victors were endorsed in their primary and general election campaigns by the Florida Chamber,


  • Additional upcoming special elections in heavily Democratic districts. On June 24th, Democratic primaries will take place in special elections for Senate District 15 and House District 40. Both districts rate as Solid Democratic districts on the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index, so while each district will have a general election contest in September the winners of June 24th's primaries will be prohibitive favorites in those contests.


  • David Jolly announces bid for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2026. Former Congressman David Jolly became the first major candidate to declare his interest in the Democratic nomination for Governor next year. Jolly, previously a Republican during his two terms in Congress, joins Republican Congressman Byron Donalds and NPA State Senator Jason Pizzo as notables to have declared they plan to run for Governor next year.



For more information on any subject covered in this video, or to find out more about the latest developments of Florida's political landscape, contact Alex Coelho.

Florida's Political Insights, Analysis
and Highlights


  • The latest edition of the Florida Chamber Political Operations' monthly version of By the Numbers was released. This month's video recaps Tuesday's special general elections for Florida Senate and House and how the upcoming 2026 election cycle continues to develop across the state. To find out more about these latest developments of the Florida political landscape, click HERE to watch this month's analysis from Florida Chamber Director of Data & Analytics Alex Coelho.


  • Florida Chamber-endorsed candidates went 3 for 3 in Tuesday's legislative elections. Current Representative Debbie Mayfield won a 4-candidate primary to be the Republican nominee in the 19th Senate District that she previously represented as its Senator, while local businessmen Nathan Boyles and Brian Hodgers won primary nomination contests in the 3rd and 32nd House Districts. To learn more about the Florida Chamber's Political Operations, contact Executive Vice President Frank Walker.


  • Republicans continue to increase their lead over Democrats among all active registered voters. As of April 30, 2025, Florida had 1,247,230 more Republicans than Democrats amongst the 13,885,126 active registered voters in Florida. This past month also saw a notable "blue-to-red" shift, as Miami-Dade county flipped to a Republican plurality in active registration totals.


  • The latest statewide poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows Republicans holding a 10-point lead over Democrats on a generic 2026 ballot, 50%-40%. This poll, conducted in May surveying 605 likely Florida voters, also found a majority of likely voters giving favorable views of the job performances of President Trump and Governor DeSantis, and continued support for Florida's historic lawsuit abuse reform efforts.


  • Florida Chamber Political Institute Begins Preparations for 2026 Elections: The Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), the Florida Chamber's nonpartisan research arm of political operations conducted nearly 100 interviews of candidates across 5 different locations across Florida during the 2024 election cycle, with more than 300 political institute members in attendance across the 5 sites. For more information on these events or the Political Institute in general contact Executive Director Marian Johnson.


  • Interested in a Corporate Political Briefing?: Contact Frank Walker to schedule your customized corporate political briefing so your management team can better understand Florida's political landscape - an exclusive benefit for Florida Chamber Board of Governor members. 


  • Exclusive Member Benefit: Be the first to know of changes to districts and counties through the Florida Partisan Performance Index. Discuss with Alex Coelho today.  


  • Florida Free Enterprise Fund, a Florida Chamber initiative aimed at recruiting and electing pro-jobs candidates and advancing pro-Florida issues, invites your company to join to help Secure Florida's Future. E-mail Frank Walker to get involved today.


  • The Florida Institute for Political Leadership (FIPL) is partnering with local chambers of commerce and hosting virtual candidate schools on how to run a winning local political campaign. With over 6,200 local elections in the coming years, we're working with local chambers of commerce to help educate local business leaders about local opportunities to serve. Click here to register and learn more.


  • Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI). Learn more here.


 

Chamber Members can access exclusive political intel here:

Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy
Florida's preeminent non-partisan local campaign training school to recruit better candidates.
Host a Candidate Training School in your community by contacting Andrew Wiggins.
ChamberHub is the Florida Chamber's exclusive, interactive, and customizable voter file.
Learn how to get access by emailing Alex Coelho.
The Free Enterprise Fund is Florida's leading political committee helping job creators secure Florida's future. To join, please contact
Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the FCPI. Learn more by contacting Marian Johnson.

Latest Statewide Florida Chamber Poll Shows Republicans Maintaining Double-Digit Lead Over Democrats on Generic 2026 Ballot

As we move further into 2025 with President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in the books, the most recent Florida Chamber statewide poll finds both Governor Ron DeSantis and President Trump with high job approval numbers. While 54% of Florida voters approve of the job Governor DeSantis is doing, President Trump enjoys support from 51% of Florida voters who approve of the job he is doing since being elected President.


The Florida Chamber’s new poll also finds Floridians remain optimistic about the direction of Florida, with 49% saying Florida is heading in the right direction, while 43% believe things are on the wrong track. Opinions on the direction of the United States are split, with 48% of Floridians believing the nation is heading in the right direction and an equal number believing the country is on the wrong track.  Both numbers remain steady with the Florida Chamber’s most recent public poll in February.


Florida Voters Support Federal and State Efforts to Provide Tax Relief

 

The Florida Chambers poll finds a majority (57%) of Floridians support efforts in Washington, D.C. to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which otherwise are set to expire. This effort is supported by 87% of Republicans, 55% of NPA’s, and even 23% of Democrats.  


At the state level, the Florida Chamber’s poll finds that efforts to repeal the Florida-only Business Rent Tax, taxation on the sales on commercial leases, also enjoys majority support. 53% of Floridians polled support the elimination of the Business Rent Tax, including a majority of Republican and NPA voters.


“With all Florida has done right, opportunities remain at the state level to make our tax environment even more competitive,” said Mark Wilson, President & CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “Most notably, the state should eliminate the business rent tax or sales tax on commercial leases, which places Florida businesses at a disadvantage compared to businesses in every other state. The Florida Chamber has been working for nearly a decade to reduce this Florida-only tax from 6% to 2%, and hopes this is the year this burdensome tax on local businesses is repealed once and for all.” 

 

Historic Lawsuit Abuse Reform Remains Popular Among Florida Voters

 

In 2023, landmark lawsuit abuse reforms were passed to address the frivolous litigation problem in Florida. Two years later, Floridians continue to strongly support the lawsuit abuse reforms passed. Only 15% of voters polled believe the lawsuit abuse reforms went too far. Additionally, a plurality of Florida voters polled are supportive of additional efforts to rein in frivolous litigation in Florida.

 

A majority of Florida voters believe personal injury trial lawyers who advertise on billboards and television are more interested in making money than in protecting the rights of people. Only 10% of voters polled believe the personal injury trial lawyers who advertise on billboards and television are more interested in protecting the rights of people, while 75% say they are more interested in making money, including 84% of Republicans and 71% of NPA’s.

 

Support for Adult Personal Use of Marijuana Lower than on 2024 Election Day: Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage

 

The Florida Chamber’s poll also found fewer Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana (53%), than a similar recreational marijuana legalization effort achieved at the ballot box in November (56%). This is the seventh consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating this potential amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage.  The lack of support from Floridians over the past two years comes despite more than $150 million being spent to try and pass the amendment during the 2024 election along with an additional $20 million attempting to revive this amendment for 2026—over $165 million of which came from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana seller. This failure to build momentum for the amendment in polling displays that the more voters learn about legalizing recreational marijuana, the less high on legalizing weed they become.


Generic Ballot in Line with 2024 Election as We Look Ahead to 2026

 

While the 2026 general election is nearly a year and a half away, the Florida Chamber’s latest poll shows an early indication that the strong support Republicans saw in the 2022 and 2024 general elections has yet to dissipate amongst the Florida electorate. When asked which party voters are likely to support in 2026, 50% of Floridians indicated their vote would be for a Republican candidate compared to 40% who would support a generic Democratic candidate. This 10-point advantage for Republicans is consistent with how Floridians have voted in the last two general elections, when President Trump and Governor DeSantis won by double digits.

 

Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida with a 1.2 Million Voter Advantage

 

Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats since the last publicly released Florida Chamber poll. The most recent voter registration update from the Florida Division of Elections shows Republicans hold a statewide advantage of 1,210,821 active voters over Democrats. As of March 31, 2025, Florida had 5,635,605 registered Republicans compared to 4,424,784 registered Democrats and 4,119,405 registered as NPAs, or members of minor parties. This gives Republicans a lead of more than 8% of all registered voters over Democrats in Florida. Since the 2022 general election, Republicans have increased their share of the active electorate in all 67 counties, while Democrats have lost registration share in all 67 counties over the same time period.

 

Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives

 

Looking ahead to the 2026 Election, the Florida Chamber will continue to lead the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations, Frank Walker, at fwalker@flchamber.com.

 

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on May 2–10, 2025, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 218 Democrats, 264 Republicans, and 123 others for a total of 605 respondents statewide.


Florida Voter Registration Analysis

VOTER DATA BY CHAMBERHUB | The Florida Chamber's Exclusive Voter File

Miami-Dade County Flips to GOP Registration Advantage as Republicans Surpass 40% of Active Florida Registrants

The latest voter registration update from the Florida Division of Elections shows Republican registration in Florida surpassing a notable milestone as the GOPs lead over Democrats continues to expand. As of April 30, 2025, Republicans lead Democrats among active registered voters by 1,247,230, an advantage of 9 percent among total registrants. Republicans have also surpassed 40 percent of all active registered voters with this latest update, owed in part to their significant monthly advantages among newly registered voters.

Republican momentum in voter registration is a product of significant gains across the vast majority of Florida counties, and with those continued gains came a significant milestone moment in the past month as Republicans overtook Democrats in active registration in Miami-Dade County. Miami-Dade, which less than 4 years ago still saw Democrats holding a double-digit registration advantage over Republicans in the county, has been at the epicenter of the political shift to the right seen in Florida. Over the span of just eight years, President Trump went from losing Miami-Dade by 29 points vs Hillary Clinton to winning Miami-Dade by 11 points last November vs Kamala Harris: an encapsulation of the vast political shifts seen in the county, particularly within the county's many Hispanic communities. Now registration data is finally catching up to these realities on the ground, as last month's update from the Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections office shows Republicans holding a two and a half percentage point edge over Democrats among active registrants.

Tweets You Can Retweet

Congratulations, @debbie_mayfield, on your election victory! The @FLChamber was proud to endorse your candidacy, and we look forward to continuing to partner with you in securing Florida’s future. #FL2030


Congratulations, @BrianHodgers on your election victory! The @FLChamber was proud to endorse your candidacy, and we look forward to partnering with you in continuing Florida's economic momentum. #FL2030


Congratulations, Nathan Boyles, on your election victory! The @FLChamber was proud to endorse your candidacy, and we look forward to partnering with you in growing Florida to a top 10 global economy by #2030.


What's Next:
Upcoming Calls, Webinars, and Events

2025 Florida Learners to Earners Workforce Solution Summit - June 24, 2025


2025 Florida Technology & Innovation Solution Summit - August 12, 2025


2025 Future of Florida Forum (F3) & Florida Chamber Annual Meeting - October 27-28, 2025


Florida Chamber Safety Council On-Demand Trainings

To learn more, run for office, or help the Florida Chamber, please contact:


Frank Walker, Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations

O: 850-521-1211 | E: fwalker@flchamber.com


Marian Johnson, Executive Director, Florida Chamber Political Institute

C: 850-212-7073 | E: marianjohnson@flchamber.com


Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Political Affairs and Coalition Advocacy

O: 850-521-1240 | E: awiggins@flchamber.com


Alex Coelho, Director of Data & Analytics

O: 850-521-1250 | E: acoelho@flchamber.com

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