October 3, 2025

The Florida Chamber political team continuously analyzes new voter registration trends, changes to House and Senate districts, and voter behavior as we work to recruit and elect pro-jobs candidates to secure Florida's future. Please share this report with your management team and send us a note if you have questions, perspectives, or recommendations. Florida is at a crossroads and we invite you to help us continue on the right path forward.

In This Issue:

Florida Political Update • Florida's Political Insights, Analysis and Highlights • Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy • Constitutional Amendment Corner • Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll • Florida Voter Registration Analysis • Tweets You Can Retweet • Upcoming Events

Florida Political Update

Ralph Massullo, Florida Chamber-Endorsed, Wins Primary Election in SD-11 Special

In this month's political edition of Florida By the Numbers, the Florida Chamber's Director of Data and Analytics Alex Coelho looks at some of the key political developments across the state of Florida over the summer. Click HERE for the full analysis of these election results from the Florida Chamber's Political Operations.

This month's video highlighted the latest political news from across Florida, including:

Florida Chamber-endorsed Ralph Massullo wins Republican primary in SD-11 special election. In a special election called following Florida Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia's appointment to that post by Gov. DeSantis, former Representative Ralph Massullo easily won the Republican primary to succeed Ingoglia in the Senate over a lone challenger. Massullo, a lifetime A-rated legislator during his years in the Florida House, was proudly endorsed by the Florida Chamber for his proven record of promoting free enterprise in Florida. Massullo advances to a December 9th general election against a Democratic challenger in a district rated as the 2nd safest Republican Senate seat in Florida on the Florida Chamber's Partisan Performance Index.

Additional legislative vacancies heading into the 2026 elections. Along with active special elections in 2025, three more legislative districts have seen their Senator or Representative transition to another elected office or post of public service. Senator Jay Collins, formerly Senator for the 14th Senate District, was appointed Lt. Governor of Florida by Governor DeSantis in August. Additionally, Representatives Mike Caruso and John Temple have taken on new positions: Caruso was appointed Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller by Governor DeSantis, and Temple was selected to be President of Lake-Sumter State College.

Common sense reforms to the amendment petition process allowed to take effect by 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. An injunction placed upon the Florida Chamber-led HB 1205, passed this past legislative session, was lifted by the 11th Circuit pending full ruling. While this is not a permanent resolution, the lifted injunction ensures that reforms allowing the state to keep noncitizens and nonresidents of Florida from collecting "citizens initiative" signatures are in place while litigation HERE

For more information on any subject covered in this video, or to find out more about the latest developments of Florida's political landscape, contact Alex Coelho.

Florida's Political Insights, Analysis

and Highlights

The latest edition of the Florida Chamber Political Operations' By the Numbers was released. This month's video recaps Tuesday's special primary elections for Florida Senate and House and how the upcoming 2026 election cycle continues to develop across the state. To find out more about these latest developments of the Florida political landscape, click HERE to watch this month's analysis from Florida Chamber Director of Data & Analytics Alex Coelho.

Republicans continue to increase their lead over Democrats among all active registered voters. As of August 31, 2025, Florida had 1,355,361 more Republicans than Democrats amongst the 13,457,587 active registered voters in Florida. August's registration update marked the first time in Florida history that the Republican registration advantage surpassed 10 percent of all active voters.

In September the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals allowed key provisions of HB 1205, a Florida Chamber-led bill passed last legislative session, to remain in effect as litigation continues. These provisions allow the state to prohibit noncitizens and nonresidents of Florida from collecting signatures to place amendments to Florida's Constitution onto the ballot through the "citizens initiative" process. To learn more about the Florida Chamber's advocacy efforts to protect Florida's Constitution, contact Executive Vice President Frank Walker.

The latest statewide poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows Republicans holding a 7-point lead over Democrats on a generic 2026 ballot, 48%-41%. This poll, conducted in August surveying 600 likely Florida voters, also found continued support for Florida's historic lawsuit abuse reform efforts as well as near universal favorable views toward local business in Florida.

Former Florida Speaker Paul Renner announced his bid to be Florida's next Governor in September. Renner joins Congressman Byron Donalds as the notable candidates seeking the Republican nomination in next August's primary, while former Congressman David Jolly remains the sole major contender for the Democratic nomination at present. With rumors of potential further candidacies in both parties however, the Florida Chamber's Political Operations team will continue to monitor and inform on the latest developments in the 2026 statewide races.

Florida Chamber Political Institute Begins Preparations for 2026 Elections: The Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI), the Florida Chamber's nonpartisan research arm of political operations conducted nearly 100 interviews of candidates across 5 different locations across Florida during the 2024 election cycle, with more than 300 political institute members in attendance across the 5 sites. For more information on these events or the Political Institute in general contact Executive Director Marian Johnson.

Interested in a Corporate Political Briefing?: Contact Frank Walker to schedule your customized corporate political briefing so your management team can better understand Florida's political landscape - an exclusive benefit for Florida Chamber Board of Governor members.

Exclusive Member Benefit: Be the first to know of changes to districts and counties through the Florida Partisan Performance Index. Discuss with Alex Coelho today.

Florida Free Enterprise Fund, a Florida Chamber initiative aimed at recruiting and electing pro-jobs candidates and advancing pro-Florida issues, invites your company to join to help Secure Florida's Future. E-mail Frank Walker to get involved today.

The Florida Institute for Political Leadership (FIPL) is partnering with local chambers of commerce and hosting virtual candidate schools on how to run a winning local political campaign. With over 6,200 local elections in the coming years, we're working with local chambers of commerce to help educate local business leaders about local opportunities to serve. Click here to register and learn more.

Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI). Learn more here.

Keep up-to-date on Florida's economy by checking out The Florida Scorecard.

Chamber Members can access exclusive political intel here:

Chamber Member Only Access

Tools for Your Company's Political Strategy

Florida's preeminent non-partisan local campaign training school to recruit better candidates.

Host a Candidate Training School in your community by contacting Andrew Wiggins.

ChamberHub is the Florida Chamber's exclusive, interactive, and customizable voter file.

Learn how to get access by emailing Alex Coelho.

Political Members Only Access

The Free Enterprise Fund is Florida's leading political committee helping job creators secure Florida's future. To join, please contact

Frank Walker.

Learn about legislative candidates and make decisions on how your company can strategically make political contributions by joining the FCPI. Learn more by contacting Marian Johnson.

Constitutional Amendment Corner: Federal Appeals Court Delivers Win in Protecting Florida’s Constitution from Out-of-State and Special Interests

A key component of Florida Chamber-led HB 1205, passed earlier this year, remains in effect and Floridians are in charge of the state’s foundational document, not out-of-state and special interests from California and Colorado looking to buy their way onto the ballot. Late Tuesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit prevented a lower court’s injunction from taking effect, allowing the state to continue to prohibit noncitizens and nonresidents of Florida from collecting signed petitions to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot through the paid petition process while the appeal is ongoing.

The Florida Chamber has a long history of leading reforms to the so-called “citizens’ initiative” process to prevent near permanent changes by those seeking to circumvent the legislative process, which can more easily adjust to changing circumstances as knowledge improves, demographics change, or policy preferences shift. The need for additional reforms became apparent with a 924-page report from the Office of Election Crimes and Security that demonstrated extremely concerning levels of petition fraud leading up to the 2024 election. In response, HB 1205 passed earlier this year with the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s support, which enhances transparency and accountability requirements around the paid petition process, including requiring paid petition gatherers to be Florida residents, providing more information to voters about the effect of a proposed initiative, and increasing penalties for violations, including fraud.

Promptly after Governor Ron DeSantis signed this bill into law, several parties, including a pro-drug political committee that spent over $150 million to place recreational drug legalization on the ballot, challenged the constitutionality of the bill, including the residency and citizenship requirements. A federal district court issued a preliminary injunction that would have allowed out-of-state and noncitizen petition gatherers to collect signed petitions, despite not living under the very constitution they sought to amend, until the higher court intervened.

While this is a temporary win in protecting Florida’s Constitution, litigation is ongoing and it will likely take some time to fully resolve the various aspects of this case and any appeals. In the meantime, this ruling ensures that only Floridians are collecting signed petitions and not out-of-state paid petition gatherers. The Florida Chamber will continue to serve as the watchdog of our state’s foundation document and defend it from out-of-state and special interests.

In related amendment news, proponents of an amendment that would place Medicaid expansion into Florida's Constitution announced their intention to delay efforts to make the statewide ballot to the 2028 election instead of 2026 with provisions of HB 1205 cited as the reason. With 20 total active initiatives to place amendments onto Florida's Constitution overall, the Florida Chamber's Political Operations will continue tracking all the latest developments in the amendment process.

Latest Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Local Businesses Enjoy Universal Support and Trust in Business is High

The latest Florida Chamber statewide poll finds more than 8 out of 10 (85%) of Florida voters have a favorable opinion of local businesses, which are the foundation of our economy. Additionally, 84% of Florida voters trust in business and 79% trust private sector charities and non-profits. Conversely, trust in the media is evenly divided with 48% trusting the media and another 48% having no trust in the media at all. Clearly, not all media is perceived equally, and these results suggest voters do maintain personal favorite outlets and mediums.

Historic Lawsuit Abuse Reform Remains Popular Among Florida Voters

In 2023, Florida Chamber-backed landmark lawsuit abuse reform was passed to address the frivolous litigation problem in Florida. Two years later, Floridians continue to strongly support the lawsuit abuse reforms passed and they want more. Only 11% of voters polled believe lawsuit abuse reform passed in 2023 went too far, while more than three times as many Floridians expressed support for additional efforts to rein in frivolous litigation in Florida. Greater support for doing more to rein in frivolous litigation versus returning to the previous legal climate that saw Florida rated a “judicial hellhole” proved universal, as every race/ethnicity, gender, and party affiliation surveyed expressed stronger support for further lawsuit abuse reform. This comes as Florida’s homeowners and auto insurance markets continue to show signs of stabilization as more private sector competitions flows into Florida providing customers more choice and downward pressure on rates.

Florida voters believe the personal injury trial lawyers who advertise on billboards and television are more interested in making money than in protecting the rights of people. Only 11% of voters polled believe the personal injury trial lawyers who advertise on billboards and television are more interested in protecting the rights of people, while 74% say they are more interested in making money, including 83% of Republicans and 71% of NPA’s.

Support for Adult Personal Use of Marijuana Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage

The Florida Chamber’s poll also found fewer Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana (55%), than a similar recreational marijuana legalization effort achieved at the ballot box in November (56%). This is the seventh consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating this potential amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage. The lack of support from Floridians over the past two years comes despite more than $150 million being spent to try and pass the amendment during the 2024 election, over $145 million of which came from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana provider. This failure to build momentum for the amendment in polling displays that the more voters learn about legalizing recreational marijuana, the less they like about legalizing marijuana.

Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Extension Supported Across All Party Affiliations and Demographics

The Florida Chamber’s 2030 Blueprint includes a goal of making Florida a top-5 state for overall well-being (currently ranked #19), and a component is accessible and affordable healthcare. When likely voters were asked about their likelihood to support the re-election of their federal lawmaker if they voted to extend enhanced premium tax credits that help with healthcare premium costs and are set to expire at the end of the year, the response was that they were overwhelmingly likely to back supportive lawmakers’ re-election. Support was across all demographics and party affiliations, including amongst NPA’s, who want to see these tax credits extended by a more than 4:1 margin.

Floridians Divided on Artificial Intelligence (“AI”)

The Florida Chamber’s latest poll finds voters in Florida divided on their perceptions of artificial intelligence (AI). When asked their impressions of artificial intelligence, 37% of Floridians responded with a favorable impression and 38% gave an unfavorable impression. This virtual tie in how AI is perceived cuts across party lines, as Democrats, Republicans, and No Party Affiliation voters were all nearly evenly divided in their viewpoint.

Generic Ballot in line with 2024 Election as we look ahead to 2026

While the 2026 general election is still more than a year away, the Florida Chamber’s poll shows Republicans continuing to hold a lead amongst Florida voters similar to the landslide victories seen for Republicans in 2022 and 2024. When asked which party voters are likely to support in 2026, 48% of Floridians indicated their vote would be for a Republican candidate compared to 41% who would support a generic Democratic candidate, which coincides with Republicans growing voter registration lead.

Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida with a 1.3 Million Voter Advantage

Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats since the last publicly released Florida Chamber poll. The most recent voter registration update from ChamberHub, the Florida Chamber’s exclusive voter file shows Republicans hold a statewide advantage of 1,327,245 active voters over Democrats. As of July 31, 2025, Florida had 5,499,419 registered Republicans compared to 4,172,174 registered Democrats and 3,850,499 registered as NPAs or members of minor parties. This gives Republicans a lead of almost 10% of all registered voters over Democrats in Florida. Since the 2022 general election, Republicans have increased their share of the active electorate in all 67 counties while Democrats have lost registration share in all 67 counties over the same time period.

Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives

Looking ahead to the 2026 Election, the Florida Chamber will continue to lead the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations Frank Walker at fwalker@flchamber.com.

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on August 13 – 24, 2025, by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 216 Democrats, 263 Republicans and 121 others for a total of 600 respondents statewide.

Florida Voter Registration Analysis

VOTER DATA BY CHAMBERHUB | The Florida Chamber's Exclusive Voter File

Republican Registration Advantage Breaks into Double-Digits Among Active Florida Registrants

The latest voter registration update from the Florida Division of Elections shows Republican registration in Florida surpassing a notable milestone as the GOPs lead over Democrats continues to expand. As of August 31, 2025, Republicans lead Democrats among active registered voters by 1,355,361, marking the first time that Republicans have extended their registration lead to over 10 percent.

The Republican advantage in registration has taken place over a relatively short period of time, as this time four years ago Democrats were still narrowly holding on to a registration lead among active voters. Over these last four years however Republicans have out-registered Democrats every month among newly registered Florida voters, often by margins of nearly or greater than two-to-one.

Tweets You Can Retweet

The Florida Chamber of Commerce proudly endorses @LaurenMeloFL

for Senate District 28 in the 2026 Election. As a business leader and two-time “Distinguished Advocate,” Lauren has a proven record of championing pro-jobs policies to make Florida more competitive.