Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, | |
We'd like to present you with the Fall 2025 edition of our quarterly newsletter. Summer temperatures were near to above normal in Florida. Summer rainfall was variable and helped to alleviate drought conditions across the Peninsula, except in coastal Southeast Florida where long-term drought impacts lingered. For most areas, summer rainfall was insufficient to close year-to-date rainfall deficits. Fall has begun very dry across northern Florida, while Southeast Florida has had above-normal rainfall, bringing some drought relief there. This newsletter shares the monthly climate summaries for the past three full months, highlights key weather events from this summer, shares the latest status on ENSO and drought, and recaps the Atlantic hurricane season so far. We also share some of the recent events and activities we've been engaged in. If you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at climate@coaps.fsu.edu.
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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| Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida | |
The Florida Climate Center's June, July, and August Climate Summaries for Florida are available, as well as previous monthly summaries. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
Monthly average temperatures were near to above normal in June. The average monthly temperature departures from normal ranged from -0.5 ̊F in Sarasota to +2.4 ̊F in Gainesville. Monthly average minimum temperatures in June were especially warm, ranking in the top 5 warmest on record for June at West Palm Beach, Orlando, Gainesville, and Key West.
The monthly average July temperatures were near to above normal across Florida. The average monthly temperature departures from normal ranged from -0.2 ̊F in Key West to +2.7 ̊F in Gainesville. A large area of high pressure impacted the state during the latter part of the month, inhibiting rainfall and allowing temperatures to climb. Jacksonville and Gainesville both recorded their hottest July on record at the airports (86 years and 52 years, respectively), while many other stations had one of their top 5 warmest months of July on record.
Monthly average temperatures in August were mixed, with below to near normal temperatures in the Panhandle and near to above normal temperatures in the Peninsula. Monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranged from -1.0 ̊F in Pensacola to +2.6 ̊F in Leesburg. A cold front during the second half of the month pushed into northern Florida, bringing a taste of fall with drier air and lower dew points there.
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for June, July, and August (courtesy of the National Weather Service), as well as the 3-month seasonal rainfall departure from normal map (courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center).
*Click on a map below to view a larger image.
| | Tampa Reaches All-Time Record High Temperature of 100°F | | The Tampa International Airport recorded a high temperature of 100 ̊F on July 27, 2025 for the first time on record, with records dating back to 1890. This beat the old high temperature record of 99 ̊F last observed on June 26, 2020. Though heat index values commonly exceed 100 ̊F during the warm season, air temperatures this high are rare in central and south Florida. July temperatures for the Tampa area are normally in the low 90s. This July, a dominant area of high pressure brought historically hot conditions to the entire southeastern U.S. High pressure is associated with sinking air that warms as it sinks and limits cloud formation and rain. In addition, strong easterly winds helped to suppress local sea breezes. | | | Rare and Extreme Rainfall Impacts Plant City in July | An isolated rainfall event occurred in the Plant City area on July 14, 2025 that produced an astonishing 7-10+ inches of rain in just a few hours. High hourly rainfall rates led to flash flooding in the area. The greatest rainfall totals were reported just south of the city, including 10.5” reported near E. Sparkman Road and over 9” near Trapnell Road. A CoCoRaHS observer (Plant City 3.9 SE) measured 9.11” also near E. Sparkman Rd. A 6-hour rainfall of 10.5 inches in this area is considered a 1-in-1000 year event. | | Southeast Florida Sees Some Drought Relief, but North Florida Begins to Dry Out | | |
Drought across the Florida Peninsula slowly improved during the summer, but long-term drought impacts remained in Southeast Florida. Despite drought improvement, total summer rainfall (June - August) came in below normal for much of the state with deficits ranging from 1–3" across northern Florida, 2–8" in central Florida, and 4–13" in South Florida. Fort Pierce and Stuart both registered their 8th-driest summers on record (118 years and 71 years, respectively). Fort Lauderdale had its 7th-driest summer on record (106 years). Some isolated areas saw a surplus of summer rainfall, including Naples (+3.43”), Melbourne (+1.75”), and Gainesville (+4.88”).
Since late August, persistent upper-level troughs have brought cooler, drier air to northern Florida. The map below shows the percent of normal precipitation for Florida for the period from August 27 - September 25. The Panhandle saw 25% of normal rainfall or less during this period. Tallahassee and Marianna both had 25 consecutive days without rain and Crestview went 20 days without rain (beginning August 31). Coastal Southeast Florida received 120% or more of normal rainfall during this period, with rainfall surpluses of between +6-9", which has improved soil moisture and streamflow conditions there.
As the end of Florida’s wet season fast approaches, a lack of consistent rainfall and tropical cyclones means that much of the state is likely to begin the dry season below normal. Lake Okeechobee water levels have been rising slowly since July, but lake levels continue to hover just above the water management threshold. Without sufficient rainfall to bring lake levels up further, conditions could become more dire later this fall.
| | Percent of normal precipitation (%) during the period from August 27, 2025 to September 25, 2025, courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center | | Latest Florida Drought Status | With much of the Florida Panhandle receiving little to no rain in September, the region has experienced drought deterioration. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, valid September 25, 2025, approximately 4% of the state is in severe drought (D2), 23% of the state is in moderate drought (D1), and 15% of the state is abnormally dry (D0). | | U.S. Drought Monitor map for Florida for the week ending September 23, 2025. | | La Niña Expected to Develop this Fall | | ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the tropical Pacific Ocean in August 2025, with near-to-below average sea surface temperatures observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña is favored to develop during the fall and early winter (71% chance during October-December 2025). Thereafter, La Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December 2025-February 2026 before returning to ENSO-neutral conditions. | | 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Peak Season Lull Followed by Increasing Activity | | |
To date, the Atlantic Basin has seen 6 tropical storms and 3 major hurricanes, including 2 Category 5 hurricanes, with little impacts to the U.S. mainland (with the exception of TS Chantal). If you look at the storm tracks in the map above, you will notice that most storms have taken a turn to the north and northeast out to sea before reaching land. This is thanks to dominant steering patterns including the Bermuda High and upper-level troughs over the southeastern U.S.
Factors that went into the season's outlook for above-average activity included warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Basin and ENSO-neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean, with neither an El Niño nor a La Niña to influence activity. However, storms have had to contend with conditions detrimental to tropical cyclone formation, including vertical wind shear, dry air, stable atmospheric conditions, and Saharan dust. With the lull in activity during the climatological peak of the season over about a 3-week period between Tropical Storm Fernand and Hurricane Gabrielle, 2025 has tied with 1992 for the longest stretch without activity during peak season since 1950.
Over the past week, Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda have formed in the Atlantic. Fortunately, upper-level steering patterns are expected to divert these systems away from land. The ocean state remains generally favorable for tropical cyclone development, so we could continue to see activity increase as we enter the final third of the hurricane season. It is uncertain if favorable upper-level steering patterns will continue, however. Storm genesis generally shifts toward the western Atlantic Basin during the final third of the season, meaning threats to land inevitably go up if storms do form closer to home.
| | Fall to Early Winter Leaning Warm, and Near Normal to Wet in Florida | The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's outlook for fall and early winter, October through December, favors above normal temperatures across Florida and much of the U.S. Precipitation is leaning above normal in South Florida and near normal in northern Florida, except in the far western Panhandle where rainfall may be below normal with drought development likely. | |
- FCC Participates in the Northwest Florida Resiliency Summit
Florida State Climatologist David Zierden presented at the Northwest Florida Resiliency Summit on June 12-13, 2025. This annual event features panels and presentations on building the region's environmental, social, and economic resilience to natural hazards.
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- FCC Attends the Gulf Resilience Community of Practice Annual Meeting
Florida assistant state climatologist Dr. Emily Powell attended the Gulf Resilience Community of Practice annual meeting in Houma, LA June 3-5. She presented preliminary results from a Gulf Research Program funded study that is investigating neighborhood-level adverse health effects from exposure to extreme heat, tropical cyclones, and air pollution across Florida, led by FSU Geography professor Dr. Chris Uejio.
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FCC Hosts FAMU Forestry and Conservation Education Summer Program Students
On July 14, the FCC hosted a group of students participating in the Forestry and Conservation Education (FACE) Summer Program, led by FAMU Extension Agent Kimberly Davis. Zierden discussed sea level rise and regional climate trends in Florida, and Powell talked about coastal adaptation and resilience to sea level rise.
- FCC Delivers the FSU Scientific Computing Colloquium
On August 27, David Zierden delivered a presentation to the Florida State University (FSU) Scientific Colloquium in the Department of Scientific Computing. He discussed past events in Florida and what to expect in the next year.
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Southeast Monthly Climate Webinar Series
This webinar series, hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service, is held on the 4th Tuesday of each month at 10am ET. Register here for upcoming webinars. These webinars are recorded and available for viewing following each event.
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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