Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, |
We'd like to present you with the Spring 2022 edition of our quarterly newsletter. In this newsletter, you'll find our recent monthly climate summaries; an update on the La Niña Advisory and the 2022 Atlantic hurricane outlook; a guest white paper on the state of science about climate change and hurricanes; the summer climate outlook; and an update on events we've been engaged in, as well as upcoming events. If you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at [email protected].
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida |
The Florida Climate Center's March, April, and May Climate Summaries for Florida are available, as well as previous monthly summaries. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns during the months of March through May across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
Average temperatures in March were above normal. The monthly departures from normal ranged from +1.9 ̊F in Tallahassee to +5.5 ̊F in Fort Myers. Several stations experienced one of their top five warmest months of March on record.
Average temperatures in April were near normal to above normal. Monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranged from +0.1 ̊F in Jacksonville to +3.0 ̊F in Tampa. Several stations in south Florida had one of their five warmest Aprils on record.
Near to above normal average temperatures continued in May, with monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranging from +0.0 ̊F in Key West to +2.5 ̊F in Orlando. Wet conditions returned for much of the Panhandle, and rain helped to alleviate drought conditions in parts of the south.
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for March, April, and May (courtesy of the National Weather Service).
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Update on the La Niña Advisory and NOAA's 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
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La Niña conditions, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, are expected to continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the chances for La Niña continuing into summer are 58% from August-October. The chances for La Niña will slightly increase again through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter (61% chance), increasing the chances of La Niña this winter for a third year in a row.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-average hurricane season this year. NOAA's outlook calls for 14-21 named storms. 6-10 of these storms are predicted to become hurricanes, with 3-6 being major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5). The average Atlantic hurricane season, based on 1991-2020 data, includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
La Niña is a major factor in the projection of another above-average season this year. Other factors include above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and an enhanced west African monsoon.
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Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought & Water Dashboard Has Launched, Monthly Webinar Series Ends After 10+ Years |
For over a decade, the ACF River Basin Drought and Water monthly webinar series has provided current and timely information, as well as engaging storytelling, about the drought and flood status across the ACF River Basin.
David Zierden and the Florida Climate Center has been a part of this long-running webinar series since the beginning - for nearly 11 years. This webinar series was also unique in that it brought together state, federal (USACE, USGS, NOAA), and academic partners. The final webinar was held Tuesday, May 24th and a recording of the webinar is available HERE.
Timely and reliable information will continue to be reported directly through the ACF River Basin Drought & Water Dashboard, which provides all of the same information that has been delivered in these webinars.
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Guest Paper Summarizes the State of Science on How Climate Change is Affecting Hurricane Activity |
The paper discusses the main hazards associated with tropical storms and hurricanes, including wind, rainfall, and storm surge, as well as a discussion of the level of confidence we have in each type of hazard. Confidence attribution is a combination of an observed trend in the historical record, an explanation for that trend rooted in theory, and explainable agreement among climate models. The paper also addresses emerging trends in storm behavior, such as rapid amplification of storms, changes in where storms reach their peak intensity, and overall changes in storm frequency.
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Table: Summary of confidence in various tropical cyclone hazards and characteristics (from Carstens et al. 2022) |
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The Seasonal Outlook for Summer is Leaning Warmer and Wetter than Normal for Florida |
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a warmer than normal summer season, June - August, for much of the country. Florida has a 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures. Precipitation is anticipated to be above normal for much of Florida, and south Florida has equal chances of above, below, and near normal rainfall. Drought is not expected to develop in Florida and existing drought conditions will likely be alleviated. |
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FCC Participates in the 2022 Southwest Florida Climate Summit, April 7-8, Hosted by the Coastal & Heartland National Estuary Partnership |
The 2022 Southwest Florida Climate Summit, hosted by the Coastal & Heartland National Estuary Partnership, was held as a public event on April 7th and 8th to share knowledge, showcase regional climate action, engage leadership across sectors, and mobilize collaboration throughout the Central and Southwest Florida region. State Climatologist David Zierden delivered a presentation on climate change, which kicked off the two-day event.
More information and video recordings from the Summit are available HERE.
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Jefferson County Workshop - Stories from the Frontlines: Extreme Weather and Resilience | July 29, 2022
The Southeast Climate and Energy Network, along with partner organizations, are hosting a workshop in Jefferson County to hear from members of the community about how people are currently facing or anticipating impacts from extreme weather. This is a NOAA-RISA sponsored workshop that will consist of 2 events:
- Thursday July 28 - Film Screening | 6:00 pm at the Jefferson County Recreation Park
- Friday, July 29 - Workshop | 8:30 am - 3:00 pm at the Monticello Opera House
Both events are free, and food and drinks will be provided. Anyone living in or around Jefferson County who has noticed environmental, economic, or climate changes in their community is invited to attend. Learn more and register HERE. For questions, call 205-291-8866.
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The American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) Annual Meeting, June 22-24, 2022
The Florida Climate Center will be attending the annual meeting of the American Association of State Climatologists. The meeting is for anyone involved in or interested in applied and service climatology or climate monitoring through mesonets. This year's meeting will return to in-person with a virtual option available. More information about the AASC is available HERE.
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Southeast Drought Early Warning System Partners Dialogue, Atlanta, GA, August 9-10, 2022
This regional in-person gathering will bring together partners for the first time under the newly established Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) network to share and discuss ongoing drought-related activities, learn about new and innovative drought research and resources, explore emerging issues and opportunities, and identify collaborative paths forward that advance drought early warning and preparedness in this region.
Learn more and register by July 22nd HERE (r egistration is limited).
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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar Series Now on the 4th Tuesday of each month!
This webinar series, hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service, is held on the 4th Tuesday of each month at 10am ET. The next webinar is June 28 and the special presentation will discuss the 2022 Atlantic hurricane outlook. Register here.
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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Florida Climate Center | Florida State University | [email protected] | (850) 644-3417
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