Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, | |
We'd like to present you with the Summer 2023 edition of our quarterly newsletter. In this newsletter, you'll find our most recent monthly climate summaries for the past three months, a post-storm summary of Hurricane Idalia, a recap of the record summer heat, and updates on El Niño and current drought status, as well as the seasonal outlook for fall. You will also find an update on recent events and activities we've been engaged in. If you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at climate@coaps.fsu.edu.
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida | |
The Florida Climate Center's June, July, and August Climate Summaries for Florida are available, as well as previous monthly summaries. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
Monthly average temperatures in June were near normal across the state. The monthly departures from normal ranged from -0.8 ̊F in Melbourne to +1.3 ̊F in Key West. June 2023 ranked 29th warmest on record based on statewide monthly average temperatures. Heat began to ramp up during the month, with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and even higher heat indices.
Average temperatures in July were above normal for the month across the state. Monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranged from +0.7 ̊F in Melbourne to +3.0 ̊F in Sarasota. High temperatures and oppressive humidity led to many stations observing their hottest July on record, including Pensacola, Jacksonville, Fort Myers, Tampa, Sarasota, Vero Beach, Naples, Miami and Key West. Statewide, the monthly average temperature was 84.2 ̊F, whichbecame the hottest July on record and the hottest month ever recorded in Florida, surpassing the old record of 84.1 ̊F set in 1998.
Average monthly temperatures in August were well above normal. Monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranged from +1.9 ̊F in Key West to +5.3 ̊F in Pensacola. Extreme heat continued to affect the state throughout the month. August 2023 was the hottest August on record again for many locations, and it became the hottest month ever recorded at many stations, including Pensacola, Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, Key West, Daytona Beach, Vero Beach, Orlando, and Naples. August 2023 also surpassed July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded in Florida, with a monthly average temperature of 85.0 ̊F (+3.9 ̊F above average).
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for June, July, and August (courtesy of the National Weather Service), as well as the 3-month seasonal rainfall departure from normal (courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center).
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El Niño Advisory, Increased Confidence in "Strong" Event | El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, continued in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in August and is expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere 2023-24 winter (now at 95% chance). El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to strengthen and there is increased confidence in a "strong" El Niño event, reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in the Niño-3.4 index region. | |
Hurricane Idalia Devastates Big Bend Region | |
Hurricane Idalia formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, August 27 and became Tropical Storm Idalia later that day. It reached hurricane strength on Tuesday, August 29 and rapidly intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane with an increase in wind speeds of 55 mph in less than 24 hours.
Idalia made landfall in the morning of August 30 along the coast of the Big Bend at Keaton Beach with maximum wind speeds of 125 mph, becoming the first storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to directly impact Florida.
Read our Hurricane Idalia preliminary post-storm summary here.
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Global August temperatures in 2023 eclipsed any other August on record by just over 0.3 ̊C, based on ERA5 reanalysis data. Both land and ocean temperatures have contributed to this warming trend. El Niño also contributes but does not alone explain the trend in average global temperatures we have seen so far this year.
August 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded in Florida. The statewide monthly average temperature was 85.0 ̊F and +4.0 ̊F above the long-term average (see map below). This crushes the previous record of 84.2 ̊F which was set just last month in July 2023. For the U.S. as a whole, August 2023 ranks 9th hottest on record.
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Many stations in Florida observed their hottest August on record (rankings shown on the map below), and it was the hottest month ever on record at many of these stations, such as Pensacola, Tallahassee, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, and Naples. Heat index values this summer have been off the charts, especially in Miami where numerous records have been broken for the longest streak of consecutive days when the heat index was above different thresholds over 100 ̊F. 2023 has already eclipsed the annual record in Miami for the number of hours spent at or above 105 ̊F heat index value, at 170 hours so far this year (previous annual record was 49 hours), according to Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami. Peak heat index values over 120 ̊F were observed in parts of the Panhandle in August. | |
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Florida Gulf sea surface temperatures have been anomalously warm this summer, contributing to extreme heat and an ongoing coral bleaching event. The map below shows Gulf sea surface temperatures, in degrees Celsius, on July 9, from the University of Miami. In July, the Florida Bay was experiencing sea surface temperatures in the upper 90s. This caused the FL Keys to issue its highest alert level ever this summer for coral bleaching.
Following on a very hot summer, Florida is on pace to see its warmest year on record. The year-to-date (January-August) statewide average temperature for Florida ranks warmest on record, at 74.7 ̊F, which is +3.8 ̊F above normal for the January-August period.
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Latest Drought Update in Florida | A combination of below normal rainfall and extreme heat led to drought development in the Panhandle during August, while Hurricane Idalia led to slight drought improvement along the west central coast. Currently, 0.3% of the state is in extreme drought (D3), 1% is in severe drought (D2), 8% is in moderate drought (D1), and 9% is abnormally dry (D0); 82% of the state is now drought free, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Florida drought updates are available on our website here. |
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Seasonal Outlook for Fall 2023 Leaning Warmer and Wetter than Normal in Florida | NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a warmer and wetter than normal fall season on average, September through November, for Florida. Average fall temperatures are leaning above normal, with a 40%-50% chance of above normal temperatures, while precipitation is leaning above normal with a 33%-40% chance of being wetter than normal. Drought removal is expected in Florida. | |
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Blistering heat and triple-digit 'feels like' temperatures puts South Florida on high alert – The Palm Beach Post, June 14, 2023
Florida among top states for twisters - Sun News Media, June 26, 2023
A tsunami struck Florida last week. Here’s how it was different from a quake-triggered event – AccuWeather, June 28, 2023
Drilling down on 101 degree water temperature recording near the Florida Keys. What we know - The News-Press, July 28, 2023
July was globe’s hottest month on record and 11th-warmest July on record in US - USA Today, August 8, 2023
How warm water in the Gulf affects people on the Wakulla County coast – WTXL Tallahassee, August 10, 2023
Florida braces for ‘extreme life-threatening’ storm surge - The Washington Post, August 29, 2023
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The Florida Climate Center staff participated in the American Association of State Climatologists annual meeting this summer, a convening of state climatology offices along with regional and federal partners, in Nashville, TN, June 21 – 23. | |
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a new grant from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to further develop the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) Program. Florida BRACE has worked since 2010 to improve the ability of the public health sector to respond to the health effects of climate variability and change. The focus of this new award will be on tropical cyclones, resilience, and health equity. FSU news release. | |
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Southeast Climate Monthly Webinar Series
This webinar series, hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service, is held on the 4th Tuesday of each month at 10am ET. The next webinar is September 26, 2023. The special topic is on Climate-Driven Changes in Prescribed Fire in the Southeastern U.S. Register here.
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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