Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, | |
We'd like to present you with the Summer 2025 edition of our quarterly newsletter. Significant rainfall deficits during the past few months led to drought development or deterioration, affecting nearly the entire state by early May. Drought conditions led to low water levels, dry pastures and farmlands, and increased wildfire activity. The rainy season is now fully underway with recent stormy and rainy weather, and many places are closing gaps in year-to-date rainfall deficits, though most places remain drier than normal as of early June. This newsletter provides the most recent monthly climate summaries for the past three full months, the latest on the status of ENSO and drought, and the outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane and summer seasons. We also share some of the recent events and activities we've been engaged in. If you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at climate@coaps.fsu.edu, and thanks for reading!
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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| Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida | |
The Florida Climate Center's March, April, and May Climate Summaries for Florida are available, as well as previous monthly summaries. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
Average monthly temperatures were near to above normal in March. The average monthly temperature departures from normal ranged from -0.5 ̊F in Key West to +1.3 ̊F in Gainesville. The month brought temperature swings which are to be expected this time of year, with isolated frost in the Panhandle to summer-like 90 ̊F temperatures during the second half of the month.
Average temperatures in April were above normal for the month across Florida. The average monthly temperature departures from normal ranged from +0.3 ̊F in Key West to +3.9 ̊F in Gainesville. An upper level ridge of high pressure set up over the state during the month, inhibiting rainfall and allowing temperatures to climb to well above normal. Many stations recorded one of their top 10 warmest Aprils on record, including Jacksonville Beach (2nd-warmest), Tallahassee (8th-warmest), Gainesville (3rd-warmest), Orlando (6th-warmest), Tampa (2nd-warmest), Sarasota (4th-warmest), and West Palm Beach (7th-warmest).
Average monthly temperatures in May continued above normal. Monthly mean temperature departures from normal ranged from +0.3 ̊F in Pensacola to +3.7 ̊F in Jacksonville. Fort Pierce and Chipley experienced their warmest May on record (based on 122 years and 83 years, respectively). Many stations recorded their 2nd-warmest May on record, including Tampa, Orlando, Melbourne, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach, Miami, and 3rd-warmest May on record, including Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Gainesville, Daytona Beach, and Key West. Statewide, May 2025 was the 2nd-warmest May on record, with an average monthly temperature departure from normal of +4 ̊F.
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for March, April, and May (courtesy of the National Weather Service), as well as the 3-month seasonal rainfall departure from normal map (courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center).
*Click on a map below to view a larger image.
| | Spring Drought Deterioration and Impacts | | Lack of rainfall and above-normal temperatures led to decreasing soil moisture, low water levels, and increased wildfire activity over the past few months in Florida. Accumulating rainfall deficits worsened drought conditions particularly across parts of South Florida. While spring began with moderate (D1) and severe (D2) drought impacting much of the Florida Peninsula, April was especially dry. The map below shows the 30-day percent of normal precipitation for the month of April. The Florida Peninsula received only 5%-25% of normal precipitation for the month, and multiple reports of moderate to severely dry conditions were submitted by observers as widespread rainfall deficits deepened. These reports indicated poor crop conditions, poor to very poor range conditions, and increased irrigation to maintain lawns and gardens. By the end of April, 21 county burn bans had been issued, from Collier County north through Volusia County, where the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) was above a 500 level threshold. | | Map showing the 30-day percent of normal precipitation for the period from April 2, 2025 to May 1, 2025, courtesy of the Southern Regional Climate Center. | | South Florida and the Everglades have been especially impacted by below-normal rainfall. The map just below shows the U.S. Drought Monitor designations at the peak of the spring drought, valid May 6, 2025. Nearly all but 3% of the state was experiencing some level of drought or abnormally dry conditions, and extreme drought (D3) affected 25% of the state, including much of southwestern Florida. Airboat tours in the Everglades were forced to cease operations along secondary canals, and wildlife impacts included overcrowding in remaining water pockets and fish kills due to algae causing depleted oxygen levels. | | U.S. Drought Monitor map for Florida for the week ending May 6, 2025. | | In early May, much of the state received widespread 2-3 inches of rain or more, which improved drought in some areas but drought persisted in areas that missed out on the heaviest rainfall. Extreme drought (D3) continued to impact southwestern Florida throughout the month of May. By May 15, generally considered the start of the Florida rainy season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated several Florida counties as Natural Disaster Areas to extend resources to areas that suffered from a level of drought intensity during the growing season. | | Latest Drought Status Shows Improvement | |
While the rainy season has now kicked in, recent rains could be slow to benefit pastures and farmlands and lead to significant drought improvement and removal in hard-hit areas. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, valid June 10, roughly 3.7% of the state remains in severe drought (D3), 24% of the state is in severe drought (D2), 14% is in moderate drought (D1), and 23% of the state is abnormally dry (D0).
View the latest Florida Climate Center drought summary infographics here for more information on statewide conditions and impacts.
| | ENSO-Neutral Conditions Expected through Summer | ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over the past month, near-average sea surface temperatures covered most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and all the weekly Niño index values were near zero. ENSO-neutral conditions are favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (82% chance during June-August 2025). There is a greater than 50% chance of ENSO-neutral extending through November 2025, the end of the hurricane season. Beyond that, ENSO-neutral conditions may remain into winter 2025-2026, though confidence is lower with chances decreasing to 48% (with a 41% chance of La Niña in November-January). | | 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected to be Above Average | | |
NOAA along with other leading groups that issue Atlantic hurricane season forecasts all agree that this Atlantic hurricane season is likely to have above-average activity. NOAA forecasts 13-19 named storms with at least 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The main factors influencing this year's outlook include above-average ocean temperatures in much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean; ENSO-neutral conditions (or lack of El Niño) through peak hurricane season with low wind shear and weak trade winds which support a favorable environment for storm development and intensification; and the potential for a more active West African Monsoon which also seeds storm development in the Atlantic Ocean.
NOAA has issued improved forecasting and communication products for the current season, including more advanced tropical cyclone advisory products up to 72 hours before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds on land, inland watches and warnings on the cone graphics, and a new rip current risk map during active storms. Read more about these updates here.
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Heat Season is Underway - Stay Prepared!
Florida's heat season kicked off May 1st in South Florida and late May in northern Florida as temperatures and humidity begin to climb with longer days. Whether you want to know when to stay indoors or if it is safe to brave the heat, or if you are interested in diving into past climatological heat data where you live, below is a quick list of heat-related data products and tools that provide past, current, and forecasted information.
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FCC Heat Index Climatology Tables - We have developed a new Heat Index product where users can view the annual count of days when the daily maximum heat index reached or exceeded different heat index temperature thresholds (100 ̊F or higher). Data are currently available for select cities from 1973 to the present.
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SERCC Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature Climatology - Available from the Southeast Regional Climate Center, these maps show the average number of hours and days of Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) values, which is a measure of heat stress that takes into account temperature, humidity, sunlight, and wind speed. Their WBGT forecast tool forecasts the WBGT over the next 5 days for any location across Florida and the entire eastern US.
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Heat.gov - The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) developed an interactive map showing areas expected to see high heat risks based on NWS heat watches, warnings and advisories over the next 7 days. Station-level data are also available.
| | Summer is Leaning Warm and Wet in Florida | The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the summer season, June through August, favors above normal temperatures in Florida and across the entire U.S. Precipitation is leaning above normal in Florida and across the Eastern Seaboard, with drought removal expected in Florida. | | |
FCC Participates in the Northwest Florida Resiliency Summit
Florida State Climatologist David Zierden will present at the Northwest Florida Resiliency Summit, happening June 12-13, 2025. This annual event features panels and presentations on building the region's environmental, social, and economic resilience to natural hazards.
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FCC Attends the Gulf Resilience Community of Practice
Assistant state climatologist Dr. Emily Powell attended the Gulf Resilience Community of Practice annual meeting in Houma, LA June 3-5. She presented preliminary results from a Gulf Research Program funded study that is investigating the public health burdens from environmental exposures across Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. Led by FSU Geography professor Dr. Chris Uejio, the study is mapping neighborhood-level adverse health effects from exposure to extreme heat, tropical cyclones, and air pollution, with applications in risk communications, emergency management, and public health.
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Southeast Monthly Climate Webinar Series
This webinar series, hosted by the Southeast Regional Climate Center in partnership with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the NOAA National Weather Service, is held on the 4th Tuesday of each month at 10am ET. The next webinar is June 24. The guest speaker is Chris Landsea who will discuss the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Register here. These webinars are recorded and available for viewing following each event.
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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