Winter 2025-2026 Newsletter | | | Dear Florida Climate Center Friends, | |
We'd like to present you with the Winter 2025-2026 edition of our quarterly newsletter. This newsletter shares our latest monthly climate summaries and our 2025 annual climate review. We also share highlights of recent weather events, including the latest status on ENSO and drought conditions in the state, and what to expect over the coming months. As always, if you have any questions, please send us an e-mail at climate@coaps.fsu.edu.
Thanks,
The Staff of the Florida Climate Center
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| 2025 Ranks 11th-Warmest and 11th-Driest on Record in Florida | | |
From a rare, record-setting winter storm in January to some big storms in summer and fall, 2025 brought another impactful year of weather to Florida. 2025 ranked as the 11th-warmest and the 11th-driest year on record for Florida, dating back to 1895. Extreme drought impacted much of South Florida in spring and the largest wildfire reported in the state during spring was the "344 Fire" in southeastern Miami-Dade County. Flash drought affected northern Florida in the fall, and exceptional drought conditions developed for the first time since spring 2012. While it was dry, some areas saw excessive rainfall during the year, but the lack of tropical rainfall meant that most areas started the winter dry season below normal.
Our 2025 Year in Review report summarizes these and other weather and climate events. It provides more annual and seasonal stats and summarizes select notable events that occurred around the state.
Access the report and past annual reports here.
| | Monthly Climate Summaries for Florida | |
The Florida Climate Center's monthly Climate Summaries for the past few months, through December, are available. These summaries provide an analysis of temperature and precipitation patterns across the state, along with data on hazardous weather, drought, and daily records tied or broken each month.
Monthly average temperatures were above normal in September and October and near normal in November statewide. It was the 33rd-warmest fall (SON) on record for the state, with fall mean temperatures +1.2 ̊F above the long-term mean.
Monthly average precipitation was below normal in September, October, and November. November 2025 ranked as the 2nd-driest November on record for Florida. Overall, fall precipitation (SON) ranked 6th-driest on record for the state, with rainfall deficits of -4.78 inches below the long-term mean.
The figures below are graphical depictions of the monthly rainfall departure from normal (in inches) for September, October, and November (courtesy of the National Weather Service), as well as the latest 3-month rainfall departure from normal map (courtesy of the High Plains Regional Climate Center).
*Click on a map below to view a larger image.
| | Latest Florida Drought Status | Most places in Florida have continued to receive below-normal rainfall over the past few months with decreasing streamflows and soil moisture conditions. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, valid January 20, 2026, all of Florida is experiencing some level of drought or pre-drought conditions. Approximately 5% of the state is in extreme drought (D3), 60% of the state is in severe drought (D2), 28% of the state is in moderate drought (D1), and about 7% of the state is abnormally dry (D0). | | U.S. Drought Monitor map for Florida for the week ending September 23, 2025. | | La Niña Advisory Continues | | As of mid-January, La Niña conditions continue in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña is expected to end soon, with the probability of La Niña during January-March 2026 below 30%. The odds favor a return to ENSO-neutral conditions (75% chance) during this period (Jan-Mar) and will likely persist through May-July 2026. Thereafter, the probability of an emerging El Niño increases, but there is much uncertainty that far out beyond spring. | | Late Winter to Early Spring Leaning Warm and Dry in Florida | The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's outlook for late winter into spring, February through April, favors above normal temperatures across Florida and the southern tier of the U.S. Dry conditions look to continue with precipitation leaning below normal in Florida. As a result, drought is expected to persist for the next few months. | | |
Florida braces for cold front as mighty 'Nick Saban' storm slams U.S., The Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 21, 2026
“It was almost overdue”: North Florida drought, the worst in over a decade, isn’t over despite weekend rain, WUFT, December 11, 2025
Thanksgiving weather: A chill leaking from Canada. Will it reach us?, The Palm Beach Post, November 26, 2025
How hurricanes get their names – and why some are retired forever, ABC News, November 5, 2025
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The Florida Climate Center is part of a three-tiered system of national, regional, and state climate offices, including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI - in Asheville, North Carolina) and the Southeast Regional Climate Center (in Chapel Hill, North Carolina). The Florida State Climatologist and staff at the Florida Climate Center provide the following information and services to the people of Florida:
Climate Data
Historical weather observations for weather stations throughout the state of Florida. We are able to provide data for most stations from 1948-present.
Climate Information
Long-term historical averages for various stations, climate divisions, and the entire state.
Extreme Event Records
Information and analyses on extreme events such as freezes, droughts, floods and hurricanes.
Special Analysis
With their vast knowledge of El Niño, La Niña and climate variability, the State Climatologist and staff can offer expert insight into Florida's climate trends.
Outreach
Activities, presentations, and workshops that inform and educate the people of Florida about current and emerging climate issues. We also coordinate volunteers for the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS).
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