Forest2Market Monthly News

December Poll

Will lower lumber prices impact capital investment in the US South in 2019?
Results From November's Poll

In 2018, housing starts are on a path to total 1.255 million units. What will housing starts be in 2019?
Stumpage or Delivered: Is there an Ideal Sales Model in the US South?

By Joe Clark
Most landowners use one model to the exclusion of the other. Sometimes this is because of necessity—those with small holdings use the stumpage model almost exclusively because they do not have the leverage and resources that large landowners have. For large landowners, however, the choice is a strategic decision that reflects how they view the market for wood in their specific areas, as well as the resources they are willing to put into operating costs.

Southern Yellow Pine Exports to China on Pace to Double in 2018

By Daniel Stuber
According to trade data compiled by the US Census Bureau through August, 2018 exports of southern yellow pine (SYP) have increased nearly 1 million cubic meters (m 3), or 73 percent, over 2017. If the trend holds, the US South will surpass the Pacific Northwest (PNW) on exports of conifer logs to China in 2018. Export prices (to all destinations) for Douglas fir have increased sharply and Hemlock prices have remained flat, but SYP prices have dropped significantly over the last year.

Did SYP Lumber Prices Find a Floor in November?

By John Greene
Southern yellow pine (SYP) lumber prices recently dropped to their lowest point of the year in week 46. Forest2Market’s composite southern yellow pine lumber price for the week ending November 16 (week 46) was $376/MBF, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week’s price of $386/MBF and an 8.5% decrease from the same week in 2017.

Market Snapshot: Canadian Softwood Lumber

By Keta Kosman
The North American softwood lumber market ended October 2018 at a low point for the year—a complete reversal compared to its record-setting performance earlier in 2018, which also came on the heels of solid performance in 2H2017.

US Housing Starts Inch up in October as Market Shows Signs of Weakness

By John Greene
US housing starts inched up in October thanks to a jump in multi-family homebuilding. However, construction of single-family homes continued to disappoint and fell for the second straight month, suggesting that the housing market is weaker than expected as mortgage rates continue to climb higher.

NH Biomass Sustains Veto, but a New Challenge Emerges

By Eric Kingsley
Biomass fuel is an important market for New Hampshire’s forest industry and, despite recent victories in the state legislature, six legacy biomass plants now face a new challenge that threatens their ability to continue operations.

Forest2Market Product Spotlight: Timber Supply Analysis 360

By Forest2Market
Forest2Market recently released Timber Supply Analysis 360, an interactive tool that provides fast, streamlined access to the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis data on growth, inventory and harvests. It also provides access to harvest data in the Pacific Northwest from the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER), Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) and the Washington Department of Natural Resources (WADNR). Timber Supply Analysis 360 is the only tool that allows you to access all of this data in a single platform.

Brazil Election 2018: Implications for the Forest Sector

By Marcelo Schmid
The development of the modern Brazilian forest sector began in the 1960s as a result of a federal policy that incentivized reforestation efforts that would sustain the forest products industry and reduce pressure on native, old-growth forests. The fiscal incentive lasted from 1966 to 1987, and was principally responsible for the formation of the large base of planted forests in Brazil. These plantations played a critical role in the expansion of Brazil’s solid wood products industry.

Analysis of Economic Health: Forecasting Gross Domestic Product

By Forest2Market
The robust economic momentum we’ve seen over the last several months may be slowing against the backdrop of a strong dollar and cooling global growth, which is restraining exports. There are few signs so far that US-China trade tensions are disrupting factory production, but manufacturers argue future output could be hurt as tariffs disrupt supply chains. Further, more than 70% of US firms operating in China and polled by the American Chamber of Commerce in South China are considering delaying further investment there and moving some or all of their manufacturing to other countries as a way to avoid the tariffs.

US Forest Industry Performance: October 2018

By Joe Clark
Total industrial production (IP) increased 0.3 percent in September (+5.1 percent YoY), about the same MoM rate of change as in the previous two months. Hurricane Florence reduced output by less than 0.1PP. For 3Q as a whole, total IP advanced at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, down from 2Q’s +5.3 percent.

Presidential Wildfire Tweets: Right Message, Wrong Time

By John Greene
While President Trump is constantly criticized for his choice of words on the digital platform, two of his latest messages in question centered on the cause of the devastating wildfires that have ravaged portions of California.