Forest2Market Monthly News
The Coming Lumber Gap: Part I

By Joel Swanton
As the forest products industries on both sides of the border continue to adapt to the new US tariffs on Canadian lumber imports, a number of dynamics that could significantly impact the US housing market will be at play in the coming months and years. Despite the resiliency this sector has demonstrated since bottoming in 2009, a lumber supply gap is staring the housing industry in the face, and it must be addressed if the market is going to continue any kind of sustainable recovery.
Southern Yellow Pine Lumber Prices Continue to Drop in June

By John Greene
The composite southern yellow pine lumber price has continued to drop since the late-April announcement of US tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber. Aside from the countervailing duties discussed in this announcement, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) recently released an “affirmative preliminary determination” about separate anti-dumping duties that could also be imposed on imports of Canadian softwood lumber pending a final determination in early September.
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Resilient Federal Forests Act Would Benefit Forests and Communities

By John Greene
Earlier this month, Congressman Bruce Westerman (R-AR)—the only forester currently serving in congress—re-introduced H.R. 2936, the Resilient Federal Forests Act of 2017. (Rep. Westerman previously introduced The Resilient Federal Forests Act of 2015 [H.R. 2647] over two years ago. It moved quickly through the House and passed by a 262-167 vote that included the support of 21 Democrats who crossed the aisle, but it was not considered in the Senate). The new bill cleared its first hurdle in the House Natural Resources committee earlier this week on a 23-12 party line vote, and the House is expected to vote on it next month.

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Brazilian Pulp Market: Recent Revenue Increases Reverse Trend

By Marcelo Schmid
Forest2Market do Brasil recently analyzed Brazilian pulp exports and identified a noteworthy trend. While Brazil exported 3.4 percent more pulp in January/February 2017 compared to the same period in 2016, export revenue was actually down 9 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2016. This performance confirms a trend observed throughout 2H2016 and into early 2017, where pulp exports increased but revenues from those exports decreased.

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DOC Adds Anti-Dumping Duties to Canadian Softwood Lumber Imports

By Morgan Brinton
Tensions continue to run high between the US and Canadian governments after Monday’s affirmative preliminary determination on anti-dumping duties by the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) and ongoing negotiations for an amended North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The recently-announced anti-dumping duty (AD) imposed on Canadian softwood lumber is based on the DOC findings that Canadian softwood lumber exports were sold at 4.59 percent to 7.72 percent less than fair value.
 
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Despite Low Winter Rainfall, US South Mill Inventories Largely Unchanged

By Mike Fiery
Despite total rainfall (inches) decreasing throughout the US South this past winter, there was no noticeable change in mill inventory levels compared to previous years under much wetter conditions. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database, rainfall has declined over the last six months in the US South.

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US Housing Starts Drop Unexpectedly in May

By John Greene
Despite high expectations for a late spring surge in homebuilding, US housing starts fell for the third straight month in May to their lowest level in eight months. The latest numbers raise concerns about the continued lack of available housing inventory—which compounds the challenges faced by Millennials as they struggle with household formation—as well as concern that the housing market recovery may be faltering.
 
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FSC and PEFC Publish Data on Double Forest Certification

By John Greene
Per a recent announcement from Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC)—two of the most prominent forest certification systems with a global reach—the two organizations have agreed to jointly collect and publish data on double certification beginning with 2016 data.

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US Forest Industry Performance: May 2017

By Joe Clark
Total industrial production (IP) advanced 1.0 percent in April (+2.2 percent YoY) for its third consecutive monthly increase and its largest gain since February 2014. Manufacturing output rose 1.0 percent (+1.9 percent YoY), led by a rebound in motor vehicles and parts. The indexes for mining and utilities posted respective MoM gains of 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent.
 
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