Forest2Market Monthly News

July Poll

Is the current trade/tariff situation impacting log prices in your area?

Results From June's Poll

Lumber prices continue to drop. What factors are most affecting the price decrease?

Mid-Year Log Export Update: Pacific Northwest and US South

By Daniel Stuber
According to trade data compiled by the US Census Bureau through April, 2019 1 exports of conifer sawlogs are on pace to decline 20 percent in 2019.

Chinese Tariffs Impacting US Forest Supply Chain

By John Greene
The US trade and tariff war with China that has been reignited in recent weeks is directly impacting American log and wood products exporters, timberland owners and other members of the global wood fiber supply chain.

Global Wood Fiber Prices: 1Q2019 Insights from Forest2Market

By Daniel Stuber
Wood fiber prices increased for all pulp and paper producers in 1Q2019, primarily driven by supply disruption in the southern US market and new demand in the US Northeast. Year-over-year (YoY), all segments saw increases in delivered prices, with double-digit percent increases for boxboard and newsprint producers. Costs for market pulp, containerboard and uncoated freesheet paper producers increased between 4 - 8 percent YoY. Fiber costs for coated paper producers were impacted the least, increasing by 1.3 percent.

Southern Yellow Pine Lumber Prices Sink to 3-Year Low

By John Greene
As we approach the midway point of the year—and the peak of the 2019 building season—southern yellow pine (SYP) lumber prices are at a significantly different spot than they were this time last year. To put the current slump in perspective, SYP lumber prices recently plunged to their lowest level in more than three years.

British Columbia Sawmill Curtailment and Timber Supply Update

By Keta Kosman
To date, BC sawmill curtailments and closures will remove nearly 400 million board feet of annual production from the supply chain for 2019. It is worth noting that these announcements have come during a time when Canadian and US sawmills are typically running at their highest capacity rates for the year.

Oil Price Volatility: Does it Impact Delivered Log Costs?

By Pete Coutu
In his popular blog post published in early 2015, Daniel Stuber asked a question related to wood supply chain costs that is as relevant now as it was then: When oil hits $50 per barrel, shouldn’t delivered wood fiber prices fall? His conclusion—that other factors, including weather, demand and inflation exerted more influence on delivered fiber prices than oil and diesel prices—was well-reasoned and reinforced by data. But does the conclusion still apply in stumpage markets and economic conditions that may be significantly different than they were four years ago?

US Forest Industry Performance: May 2019

By Joe Clark
Total industrial production (IP) fell 0.5 percent in April, and the rates of change for the six prior months were revised down on net. Output in 1Q is now reported to have declined at an annualized 1.9 percent (originally -0.3 percent). Manufacturing output moved down 0.5 percent (-0.3 percent excluding autos) in April after being unchanged in March. Paper was among the largest gainers (+1.2 percent), with Wood Products trailing (+0.2 percent).

Housing Starts Take a Step Back in May

By John Greene
Despite some promising signs in April—and on the heels of March data that was revised upward—the US homebuilding industry can’t seem to string together a few consecutive months’ worth of significant growth. Housing starts inched down in May, surprising economists and analysts who had predicted another month of gains now that we’ve entered peak building season.

Sudden Drop in Plywood Exports Worries Brazilian Producers

By Marcelo Schmid
While January/February 2019 plywood export volumes from Brazil reached values even higher than the monthly average during 2018, the volume dropped by 31 percent in March and April—a sudden correction that has concerned Brazilian producers. What’s behind this drastic and immediate reduction?

Labor Market Disappoints at Mid-Year Mark

By Forest2Market
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) establishment survey reported non-farm payroll employment rising by 75,000 jobs in May (+180,000 expected; and roughly half the minimum forecast by analysts). Also, combined March and April employment gains were revised down by 75,000.