May 27, 2022
Let's call it a "triple bear" market. There is no hiding from it - everyone is looking for a tree to climb or a cave to hide in.
We are in a rare situation when bonds are having their worst year ever, the S&P 500 flirted with -20% losses, and the Nasdaq index for growth stocks was off -27%. Investors holding cash are earning less than 1% yield, while dealing with 8% inflation.
Fortunately, stocks don't go down forever.
Futurists say that "A trend is a trend until it bends or it ends." The question on everybody's mind is, "How long are these losses going to last?
Trends are powerful... they tell you the direction of movement and the rate of that movement. But, trends won't tell you when they are going to stop. We use cycles for that.
Cycles are amazing tools for timing the market. They don't always work, because markets change. But they CAN give you some insights on when things might turn around.
Cycles Are Everywhere
From a scientific perspective, cycles and waves can be used to describe the qualities of natural phenonema, including light, sound, electricity, and even gravity. Colors are represented by different frequencies of light in the visible spectrum. High-pitched sounds are tones with short waves, low-pitched sounds have longer waves. Our senses of sight and hearing interpret cycles to understand the world around us.
Cycles also exist in social systems. The market timing system that we've developed at StratFI relies heavily on a 15-day cycle for the stock market. This works great for day-to-day trading, but misses out on the "big picture".
If we do a spectrum analysis of weekly cycles over the past twenty years (x-axis, left to right), the 182 week cycle stands out. It scores well on both strength (y-axis) and persistency (large green triangle). Look for the tall bulge in the center - let's focus on that.