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020 E-Commerce Outlook
Let's be clear - E-commerce is here to stay and as small business owners you need to get on board NOW. Look at these statistics and how fast they are growing. Reach out to
Valley Community Developments Small Business Program
and get some resources to help you stay ahead of the curve.
The year is half over and almost any business forecast made early in 2020 is hopelessly out of date. Last February, eMarketer forecast retail sales in 2020 would grow 2.8% to $5.6 trillion. Then the coronavirus pandemic descended upon us and
eMarketer revised its projections
to a 10.5% decline in total U.S. retail sales to $4.9 trillion, which includes a 14% decrease in brick-and-mortar store sales offset by an 18% rise in e-commerce sales.
It would have been impossible for small business owners to prepare for this scenario, but now that we’re living through it, we should be a little better prepared for the rest of the year. In their
US Ecommerce 2020
report eMarketer features new “predictions that reflect the impact of the public health crisis and consider which trends are here to stay.”
Some of their key points:
There’s been a surge in what eMarketer calls click-and-collect, which is buy online, pickup curbside. This lets consumers make an immediate purchase (as if they were shopping in-store) and get their merchandise with minimum contact.
They expect click-and-collect e-commerce sales to hit $58.5 billion this year, up from their original projection of 38.6% growth.
The
18% growth for e-commerce sales
“reflects a notable increase in both the number of digital buyers and the average spending per buyer.” This is driven, in part, by consumers new to shopping online, “including 12.2% growth for those ages 65 and older.”
Overall, e-commerce sales should reach $709.8 billion, and comprise 14.5% of total U.S. retail sales, which eMarketer says is
“both an all-time high and the biggest share increase in a single year.”
The fastest-growing e-commerce categories prior to the onset of COVID-19 were food/beverage and health/personal care/beauty. Now eMarketer has increased their forecast for food and beverage sales from
23.4% to 58.5%
and health, personal care and beauty sales from
16.6% to 32.4%.
Some consumers will certainly shop in-store, but eMarketer expects “certain behaviors like click-and-collect and curbside pickup”
to persist be part of a “long-term trajectory of e-commerce growth.”
