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And now for something completely
different.
On Monday, I revisited what I
consider to be one of the most
interesting pages on the Internet,
Deagel.com's Forecast for 2025,
which is now only 8 years away.
What's interesting about this
forecast is that the Deagel website
doesn't have a dog in this fight.
They are quite literally mercenary.
The site analyzes which markets
are going to have budgets allocated
to buy military aircraft. That's all
they're really care about.
These predictions are based on a
merge of publicly-available reports
from institutions such as the CIA,
IMF and the UN. They also include
a small amount of data coming
from a variety of "shadow sources"
such as Internet gurus. But all
these sources are from the Internet.
The list is ever-changing. The
forecasts for population growth or
decline, military expenditures and
Purchasing Power Parity in all of
the world's countries have fluctuated
somewhat, since I first ran across
the list in mid-2015 but one
prediction has remained a constant:
China will be the largest economy
on Earth in 2025.
Certain things on this list are
well-known and expected. We know
that China's population growth is
peaking and that it will recede
slightly. India's population growth
remains unchained and it will grow
by nearly 100,000,000 people in 8
years. Other things are in flux. A
year ago, Brazil's GDP was predicted
to take a distant second place to
China's in 2025 but since the coup
d'état of Dilma Rousseff and the
ensuing nonviolent political and
economic chaos, Brazil has since
slipped behind India and Russia to
take the number 4 spot. I suspect
that the ramifications of the currency
madness in India is not yet fully
reflected in Deagel's current list
and that India's position may soon
change.
Yes. The US is not predicted to be
among the 5 top GDPs, not even in
the top 10.
There are some
extremely radical and unexpected
shifts predicted, particularly within
the US, UK and Australia. Last
Monday, I pasted the top 60 nations,
sorted by GDP into an Excel
spreadhseet and did some calculations
in it, to try to make some sense out of
this data:
The top numbers are for 2025 and
the ones beneath are today's
numbers.
I gave color codes to show radical
shifts in population and Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP). "PPP" means the
estimate of what the exchange rate
between two currencies would have
to be in order for the exchange to be
at par with the purchasing power of
the two countries' currencies. On this
list, it's pegged to the US dollar. Brick
Red means devastating changes,
peach and yellow, devastating but
less extreme. Green indicates
improvement.
By far the most radical and
catastrophic occurrences are
Deagel's predicted depopulation of
the US by 81% or over 260M people
and a PPP decrease also of 81%,
with the US economy plummeting
from today's #1 spot to #11. This is
up from #13, two years ago, but today,
they're predicting that the US
population will decrease to 61M,
down from 68M 2 years ago (!)
Mexico's population will basically stay
the same but their PPP will decrease by
31%. Canada, while it's predicted to
have a 54% loss of PPP, it will "only"
lose 27% of its current population,
according to Deagel's predictions.
These figures are harrowing but not as
bad as the catastrophic changes, which
are predicted to be seen in the rest of
the world's most developed economies.
Here's a short list of the most negative data:
US: population loss of 81% PPP loss of 81%
UK: population loss of 70% PPP loss of 82%
Spain: population loss of 51% PPP loss of 73%
Germany: population loss of 50% PPP loss of 64%
Australia: population loss of 49% PPP loss of 80%
Switzerland: population loss of 46% PPP loss of 60%
France: population loss of 31% PPP loss of 55%
Singapore: population loss of 25% PPP loss of 62%
Saudi Arabia: population loss of 12% PPP loss of 65%
Only three countries within the
group of the top 60 GDP will
experience significant improvement,
while catastrophe is reigning in the
countries listed above:
Russia: population loss of 2% ppp gain of 32%
Chile: population gain of 3% ppp gain of 23%
Colombia: population gain of 6% ppp gain of 22%
The countries with the top 10
highest PPP, in the following order
are predicted to be Brunei, Qatar,
Netherlands, Russia, Singapore,
Norway, Finland, Chile, Taiwan and
Malaysia - with only Russia's
increasing, the rest all decreasing
- and in the case of Singapore,
decreasing significantly.
The way the population losses and
gains are distributed, it does not
appear that these radical depopulations
will be the result of nuclear bombs
or hot wars. These look like the results
of financial collapse and migration,
although many are predicted will die,
as well.
Brazil, whose GDP will almost triple,
despite its ongoing political saga (which
may soon be mirrored by that of the US)
will also experience a population increase
of 5%, in a country which has been
experiencing a population decrease, with
a current growth of .86%. In other words,
~10M people are expected to migrate to
Brazil within 8 years.
According to these statistics, the two
countries with the most rosy outlook
are Russia and Chile.
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