4/2/2021

The Ag complex had been patiently awaiting the USDA’s March 31st report and was clearly shocked at what was printed on Wednesday. The USDA posted planting intentions at just 91.444 million acres for corn and 87.6 million acres in soybeans. Both estimates were roughly 2 million acres below the average trade estimate, and many involved in the market remain skeptical whether USDA got this one right. Analysts point out that the USDA has likely built in prevent plant acres similar to the last two years, but it seems this year’s risk/reward ratio is much different than 2019 and 2020. Logic would say that farmers plant even the riskiest acres this year and acres numbers will likely be higher come June, but in the end these are the numbers that will be traded on the May and June WASDE reports and help to determine the 2021-22 balance sheets. 
KC wheat found a bearish story in the prospective plantings report and closes lower for the sixth week in a row. USDA printed 33.078 million acres versus the average trade estimate of 31.811 million in winter wheat. This week’s low of $5.53 is right on an important trend line support that will need to hold or the market can leg down to $5.24-$5.08. 
Now is a great time to look at your personal planting intentions and give the grain department a call at 308-487-3325 for further insight on the markets as well as competitive bids. Enjoy your holiday weekend!