Minneapolis spring wheat led the way higher for the Ags this week, with recent data showing significant deterioration of the spring wheat and durum crops on both sides of the border. Problems with the U.S. crop are well documented, but reports are not emerging that three-fourths of the Canadian prairie crop belt is in similar condition. Other support comes from recent adverse weather resulting in lower production estimates for Russia. This has shifted sentiment in the wheat market this year, with the market now believing it needs to price winter wheat out to the feed bunk to preserve supplies. Soybeans have the tightest balance sheet among the summer row crops, with temperatures in the western areas of the Ag belt heating up ahead of the critical pod set and pod fill stages of development. The combination of higher wheat and higher soybean prices provides a lift for the corn market. The protein sector is also well supported, with the exception of feeder cattle demand, which is lower due to higher feed costs.
Despite delays due to rain and humidity, HRW harvest is 38% complete in sampled states with 266 samples in the lab for testing at U.S. Wheat Associates. The HRS crop continues to mature at a faster than normal pace as the region struggles with prolonged drought. USDA estimates winter wheat production at 1.36 billion bushels (37.2 mmt), an increase of 16% from last year and up 4% from June; spring wheat production is estimated at 345 million bushels (9.4 mmt), a 41% decrease from 2020.