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You are invited to CCL's National call

Saturday, May 10 at 10 AM PT here,

followed by the Marin/Sonoma chapters' call at 11 here. (Passcode 123)

Then on Monday, May 12 at 4:30 in Mill Valley:

IT'S CRUNCH TIME, FOLKS:

James Hansen and the scientific contest about accelerated warming: "2025 is the crunch year"

The record-breaking warming years of 2023 (1.5°C) and 2024 (1.6°C) were above expectations and shocked scientists. Their responses and the subsequent research are a good example of how quickly physical reality is changing, driving new and contested understandings. 

In late 2023, as global and ocean temperatures soared, the most upfront assessment came from Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth: “Staggering. Unnerving. Mind-boggling. Absolutely, gobsmackingly bananas.” It was a widely-shared view, with responses such as “unprecedented” and “frightening."

The decline in Antarctic sea ice extent was much greater than model projections, leading Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center to exclaim: “It's so far outside anything we've seen, it's almost mind-blowing.” The same was true for high North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which were literally off the chart. (See below.)

The 2023 recording-breaking heat was widely explained as a consequence of an El Niño which had developed during the year, plus small contributions from reduced aerosols due to cleaner shipping fuel policies, the massive eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano and increased solar activity, plus unknown factors.  

By January 2024, CarbonBrief proffered: “While there are a number of factors that researchers have proposed to explain 2023’s exceptional warmth, scientists still lack a clear explanation for why global temperatures were so unexpectedly high… researchers are just starting to disentangle the causes of the unexpected extreme global heat the world experienced in 2023.”

Find out more about this important debate here.

And, just in time for 2025 to be the "crunch year:"

US dismisses all authors of National Climate Assessment

No worries, right?

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration has dismissed all contributors to the U.S. government's signature study that informs federal and local governments on how to prepare for climate change impacts, according to an email sent to them on Monday.

The dismissal of nearly 400 contributors to the sixth National Climate Assessment, which is mandated by Congress, leaves the future of the report in doubt since the multi-year, peer-reviewed analysis is due for publication in 2028.

Reuters

But, bravely stepping up:

Research organizations to keep US climate report alive in new journal

The American Geophysical Union (AGU), the largest association of Earth and space scientists in the world, and the American Meteorological Society (AMS), called for the research as part of an effort to "sustain the momentum" of the sixth NCA, whose 400 authors and staff were dismissed by the Trump administration last week.

Reuters, May 2, 2025

Trump Administration Cuts Research Funding, Claiming It Creates ‘Climate Anxiety’

The Trump administration announced it is cutting nearly $4 million in federal funding for climate change research at Princeton University, saying that the work promoted “exaggerated and implausible climate threats” and increased “climate anxiety” among young Americans.

NYT, April 9

Wouldn't want to frighten the children, now, would we?

Trump seeks to end climate research at premier U.S. climate agency

Science, March 10, 2025

The Trump administration is seeking to end nearly all of the climate research conducted by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), one of the country’s premier climate science agencies, according to an internal budget document seen by Science.

The document indicates the White House is ready to ask Congress to eliminate NOAA’s climate research centers and cut hundreds of federal and academic climate scientists who track and study human-driven global warming.

The administration is also preparing to ask for deep cuts to NASA’s science programs, according to media reports today.

The proposed NOAA cuts—which could be altered before the administration sends its 2026 budget request to Congress in the coming weeks—would cut funding for the agency’s research arm, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), to just over $171 million, a drop of $485 million. Any remaining research funding from previously authorized budgets would be moved to other programs. “At this funding level, OAR is eliminated as a line office,” the document states.

Now, that's efficiency.

NIH Ends Future Funding to Study the Health Effects of Climate Change

If this sounds unbelievable-- and it does -- read this: ProPublica

Aftermath of the devastating L.A. fires. Don't worry about any health impacts...

The Tipping Points of Climate Change — and Where We Stand | Johan Rockström

Should your climate anxiety level need to be further jolted into the stratosphere, tolerate 18 minutes with this world renowned scientist, who explains why earth scientists are "getting nervous" to say the least.

He demonstrates that climate and other environmental tipping points are already here, that the changes are accelerating, buffering systems are weakening, we are way behind and about to lose control....

But there is still hope that if we act really fast we might be able to stabilize Earth's climate in a habitable zone, a great reason to finally harness the enormous power of the global energy economy by deploying CCL's (and the US economics profession's) proposed carbon fee, dividend and border carbon policy to forcibly apply the brakes on fossil fuel demand -- thus supply and emissions -- before it's too late. It's not the only thing we must do, but it's essential. Focus on demand reduction by raising the price in a way people will tolerate --by governments not keeping the revenue -- rather than focusing on throttling supply, which may be inexhaustible if suppliers are motivated to drill deep enough.

Watch it here

Speaking of tipping points...

Arctic Sea Ice Maximum is Lowest in Record

Do Not Miss This Series! 

If you've already seen it, watch it again. You'll then understand how we got into this mess -- Denial, Doubt and Delay -- and what it will take to get us out: Massive popular political pressure supporting robust solutions that this industry and their agents will inevitably oppose.

You're invited, but...

This is how one behaves inside The Capitol:

Make an appointment. Business attire recommended. Bring nothing that even looks like a weapon.

Long live Democracy.

Prepared by Peter G. Joseph, M.D. 

Peter.Joseph@cclvolunteer.org

Apologies for cross postings.

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