Spring Break Surge from the Mainland
According to Erik Kloninger, the state hit 68% of pre-Covid visitor arrivals in early April, driven by robust spring break vacation travel. With international visitor arrivals continuing to be very low due to low vaccine rates as well as the requirement they must quarantine upon returning back to their home country, the rebound continues to be U.S.driven. During spring break, U.S. daily visitor arrivals approached 90% of pre-pandemic levels while Maui experienced more arrivals than in 2018 or 2019. The traveler demographic is younger and less affluent than in the past. This and the lack of Japanese visitors are holding spending down.
Was Hawaii Caught Off Guard?
The state’s visitor infrastructure has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, particularly restaurants and rental cars. There are clearly not enough seats at restaurants and bars as a result of social distancing and reduced capacity requirements, and the closure of many establishments. As a result, getting dinner reservations in resort areas such as Waikiki has been a challenge. Due to fleet reductions, car rental companies don't have sufficient inventory to meet demand. Stories have circulated about Toyota Camrys renting for $800 per day on Maui. The State of Hawaii was certainly caught off guard as there is still no sign of any reservation system for high-demand, hot spot visitor attractions like Hanauma Bay and Diamond Head. There were also reports of long lines of visitors getting processed upon entry.
The Outlook
Based on our review of forward booking trends and hotel rates, we anticipate some softness in April and May (this is usual for Hawaii) but the summer months should be strong. With a continued lack of Japanese visitors as well as pent up demand from U.S. visitors, we anticipate the summer months will see domestic arrivals at or above 2019 levels.

Survey Question
We'd like to hear your opinion on the Hawaii Hotel Investment Market. Below is the first of our one-question, multiple-choice surveys. This one asks when you expect Hawaii visitor arrivals to return to 2019 levels.
1189 Waimanu Street, Suite 2405
Honolulu, HI 96814
(808) 466-3401