Year to Date 2025 Hotel Performance

Statewide hotel performance for the first half of 2025 remains largely consistent with the same period in 2024 in terms of occupancy, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available room (RevPAR). However, significant variances persist among the islands and across different market segments. RevPAR increased by 10% on Hawaii Island and 3% on Kauai, while Oahu and Maui experienced a decline of 2%. Notably, occupancy gains on Hawaii Island and Kauai have been strong, whereas Maui continues to lag, performing worse than the first half of 2024, which was already impacted by the wildfires.

Luxury Rules!

The luxury segment continues to outperform other classes, with RevPAR up 14% year-to-date compared to last year, driven by both higher rates and occupancy levels. In contrast, other market segments have declined, with upscale properties down 13% and upper midscale properties down 15%.

June 2025 Hotel Performance

In June 2025, the statewide ADR improved by half a percentage point, but a 1% decline in occupancy translated into a 1% decrease in RevPAR compared to June 2024. Hawaii Island posted a 6% gain in RevPAR, Maui saw a 9% increase (reflecting continued recovery post-wildfires), Kauai’s figures were unchanged, and Oahu experienced an 8% decline.

Visitor Arrivals

Statewide, visitor arrivals decreased by 2% in June 2025 compared to the prior year. Oahu was down 4%, Kauai was up 4%, and Hawaii Island was down 2%. Maui reported a 5% increase compared to June last year, but arrivals remain 23% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Japanese arrivals declined 4% from June 2024 and are 55% below 2019 levels. Despite these declines, arrivals are still up 2% year-to-date; however, recent monthly data indicates a downward trend.

Visitor Expenditures

Visitor spending in June 2025 closely reflected hotel performance metrics. Total expenditures rose 3%, while per person, per day spending increased 6%. Growth in Oahu spending (+2%) and a notable rebound on Maui (+13%)—compared to the challenging conditions following the wildfires last year—contributed to these gains.

Current Air Capacity to Hawaii

Total air seat capacity to Hawaii fell 3% in June and is down 1% year-to-date relative to 2024. By island, air seat capacity declined by 1% for Oahu, 2% for both Maui and Kona, and increased by 4% for Kauai. International air seats are down 8% year-to-date, mainly due to a 10% reduction in capacity from Japan.

Air Seats Outlook

Looking ahead to the July through September 2025 period, total projected air seats are expected to decrease by 1% compared to the same period last year. Domestic seat capacity is anticipated to decline by 2%, while international capacity is forecasted to rise by 4%.

State of Hawaii –  down 1%

Honolulu flat

Kahului down 4%

Kona down 7%

Lihue up 5%

Domestic down 2%

International up 4%

Japan down 1%

Canada  flat

Oceania down 7%

Korea up 33%

Is the Recovery Party Over?

When I don my broker hat (it's a cute number, very fashion forward), I will often cite Hawaii's strong post pandemic recovery. Once the politicians let visitors return, Hawaii experienced a quick and robust rebound driven by westbound visitors willing to pay much more for a room than they did pre-pandemic. DBEDT noted that total visitor spending is up 23.6% since the first half of 2019 and HTA data shows total room revenue is 27.6% greater than in 2019. While these sound good, they are both now slightly below the inflation rate during that time period. I guess I'll modify my broker pitch and focus on our best competitive strength, the low likelihood of new hotel development providing added competition.

Data Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority & DBEDT

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