Hard Times Expected to Continue for the Hawaii Visitor Industry
Governor Ige’s unilateral revision of the Safe Travels program on November 24th combined with Kauai Mayor Kawakami’s withdrawal from the Safe Travels program has put a damper on visitor travel to Hawaii. Ige’s revision requires arriving travelers to have their negative test results in hand before their flight departs or face a 14-day quarantine. Sadly, Governor Ige did not consult any of the leaders in the visitor industry prior to issuing the revision. The pre-departure test result requirement created new uncertainty for travelers, as testing partners were not able to guarantee that results would be available prior to departure. At the same time, rates of COVID-19 infections were soaring on the Mainland, including Hawaii’s key West Coast feeder markets. These developments have resulted in many cancellations and a noticeable drop in visitor arrivals, as noted in Erik Kloninger’s analysis below of visitor data.
During the week preceding October 15, statewide visitor arrivals had averaged 3.0% of October 2019 levels. Within a week, daily visitor arrivals equaled 18.5% of 2019 levels before dipping below 15.0%. Daily visitor arrivals averaged a little more than 20% of 2019 levels in early and mid-November before spiking to about 30% in advance of Thanksgiving. Starting on November 24, when the Safe Travels program was revised, daily visitor arrivals decreased rapidly and have been ranging between 16% and 18% of 2019 levels since the start of December. Note the rise and fall of visitor arrivals below.
