Aloha! March was one of those months where the data tells a story, but the weather wrote it first. A pair of Kona Low systems rolled through mid-to-late month, and the timing couldn't have been worse: peak spring break, inbound flights stacking up, and suddenly the state's busiest visitor corridors were navigating cancellations and closure days.

The result? A modest softening in the headline metrics — but context matters here. Strip out the storm effect and the underlying trend remains intact. Year-to-date, the state is slightly ahead of last year across occupancy and RevPAR. The neighbor islands, where the storm impact was comparatively lighter, are mostly outperforming.

March 2026 Hotel Performance

Occupancy

—

▼ 1% vs. March 2025

ADR

—

▬ Flat vs. March 2025

RevPAR

—

▼ 1% vs. March 2025

Luxury — first drop in some time

RevPAR by Island — March

Year-to-Date State

The luxury RevPAR dip is worth watching — not panicking over but watching. The segment had been holding up remarkably well through a lot of headwinds, and the first year-over-year decline in some time is a data point, not a trend. One storm-impacted month does not a softening make. That said, if the pattern continues into Q2 without a weather excuse, that's a different conversation.

Visitor Arrivals

The Canada number is the one that keeps coming up in conversations. An 11% decline in a historically reliable visitor segment is not noise — it reflects real friction, whether that's currency, sentiment, or travel pattern shifts. Japan at plus-9% is genuinely encouraging and a reminder that international recovery isn't monolithic. The YTD picture being ahead of last year despite March's softness tells you the fundamentals haven't broken.

Air Seats — March 2026

Total Seats

▲ 5%

vs. March 2025

Domestic

▲ 7%

Year-over-year

International

▼ 4%

Japan +1% · Canada −10%

YTD Total

▲ 6%

Dom +7% · Intl +3%

Air Seats Outlook — April to June 2026 vs. Prior Year

By Airport (Outlook)

Honolulu (HNL)  ▲ 2%
Kahului (OGG)  ▲ 17%
Kona (KOA)  ▲ 9%
Lihue (LIH)  ▲ 16%

International Markets

Korea  ▲ 8%
Oceania  ▼ 19%
Japan  ▼ 5%
Canada  ▼ 2%

The OGG and LIH outlook numbers — up 17% and 16% respectively — are the most interesting data points in this section. That kind of capacity increase heading into summer means the neighbor islands are attracting real airline commitment, not just schedule maintenance. Pair that with the strong YTD domestic seat growth and there's a reasonably optimistic supply picture for Q2 despite the international headwinds.

Investment Market

There were no transaction closings in the first quarter, though there are a handful of properties testing the market. Overall, buyers are cautious and careful and so are their lenders. Despite that there is still plenty of capital looking for opportunities.

Buyers are still working through the math on a financing environment that hasn't moved the way some had hoped, and sellers with quality assets largely aren't under pressure to move at discounts. The bid-ask gap that characterized much of 2025 has narrowed, but not enough to unlock the volume of trades many expected heading into this year.

We continue to track several opportunities and will have more to share in coming issues.

Data Sources: Hawaii Tourism Authority

Active Listing

Hawaii Island

Kailua-Kona Development Site

Suitable for 100-room hotel, condos, or retail