Visitor Arrivals and Spending

For the first nine months of the year, arrivals are 6.4% higher driven by a 2.6X increase in Japanese visitors partially offset by a 3% decline in US visitors. Relative to the same period in 2019, arrivals are down 6.5% but total expenditures are up 18.7%. Interestingly, US per person per day spending is now greater than that of Japanese visitors. Comparing this September to last, arrivals to Maui were down 57%, while Oahu was up 12.5%, Kauai was up 10.3% and Hawaii Island was up 4.8%.

Hotel Performance

For the first nine months of 2023, Oahu led with a 12.3% RevPAR increase that’s driven by a combination of occupancy and rate. Maui is down 3.6% in RevPAR while Hawaii Island is down 4% both because of lower occupancy. Kauai continues to perform well with a 4.4% increase in RevPAR despite a small drop in occupancy.

For the month of September, the trends mostly continued with Oahu keeping pace with the year-to-date performance. Maui held up surprisingly well with only a 1.9% drop in RevPAR which was mostly occupancy-driven. Wailea was hit hard by a 21% drop in rate. Meanwhile Kauai appeared to benefit the most posting a 15.4% increase in RevPAR that was driven by a 9.7% increase in rate and a 4% increase in occupancy. Kauai continues to perform well despite having fewer air seats than in 2022.

Air Seats

Projected air seats for the October to December period for the state will be 3.3% above the same period last year driven by a 14% increase in seats to Oahu and a 16% increase in seats to Kona. Air seats to Kahului will be down 20.9% and Lihue will be down 11.6%. Domestic seats to Hawaii will drop 1.2% but seats from Japan will increase 60%. ANA is adding another A380 route from Narita, Delta is returning to the market from Haneda and Hawaiian is increasing flights across Japan including adding a nonstop between Haneda and Kona. ZIPAIR will provide three flights a week from Narita starting 10/29 while newcomer to Hawaii Air Premia will provide four flights per week from Incheon starting on 12/31. There is still room for growth as seats from Japan are still 35% below 2019 levels but the yen at 150 is not helping. Thanks to Dave Erdman, CEO of PacRim Marketing Group for the flight insights.

West Maui Reopening

The reopening of West Maui was pushed back from October 8 to November 1. The status of displaced residents living in hotels depends on how long the emergency aid money is available and how long those hotel rooms aren’t taken by visitors.