A Year After the Wildfires.....Caveats on Maui Data

We will need to be careful interpreting Maui visitor and hotel performance data over the coming months. A local newspaper noted an 80% increase in August arrivals to Maui but it's not yet time to celebrate as that number is still well below 2022 and 2019. On the hotel performance front, the prior year 's data will largely reflect occupancy by displaced residents who were housed in west Maui hotels for months.

Visitor Arrivals

Compared to last year, total visitor arrivals are up 6% for the month of August but down 2% year-to-date. Japanese arrivals are down 17% for the month but still up 38% for the year. Arrivals to Maui were up big relative to last year but are 23% below August of 2022 and 25% below 2019.  

Visitor Spending

Total visitor expenditures in Hawaii for August were up 11% but down 2% for the year-to-date. Maui visitor expenditure also bounced back from last August’s low, but spending is still down 18% year-to-date.

Air Seats

Relative to 2023, projected air seats for September to November are up 3% for the state. Honolulu is up 2%, Lihue is up 8% while Kona is down 6%. International seats are up 6% over last year but still 26% less than 2019. The total number of air seats to Hawaii is 1% less than 2019. Seats from Japan are up 13% over the same period last year but 32% less than 2019.

August Hotel Performance

Hawaii hotels performed poorly with all four major islands reporting drops in RevPAR. In a reversal of fortune, Kauai dropped 10% in RevPAR because of a 6% drop in occupancy and a 3% decline in rate. Maui had a 3% increase in occupancy but a 10% decline in rate resulting in a 5% drop in RevPAR. Oahu was down 1% and Hawaii Island down 3% in RevPAR.

Year-to-Date Hotel Performance

Despite the decreases in August RevPAR, Oahu was still up 4%, Kauai up 2% and Hawaii Island flat for the year to date. Total revenue for the state’s hotels was down 3%.

Investment Market Happenings

The Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut has provided some optimism that transaction activity will increase. Can it get any slower?

Meet Me at the Lodging Conference

I look forward to reconnecting with my friends in the hotel investment industry at the 2024 Lodging Conference in Phoenix October 7 ~9. I’ll report back next month on my takeaways.