The Delta Variant and Bad Marketing Combine to Hamper the Hawaii Visitor Industry
The surge of Covid-19 cases has led Hawaii's state and county governments to roll out new restrictions on businesses. Despite no evidence of them being behind the recent surge, Governor Ige asked visitors to "stay away" as Hawaii battles the Delta variant. Another uniquely Hawaiian irony is the Hawaii Tourism Authority's strategic plan to reduce the number of visitors to Hawaii. This is likely the only visitor marketing organization in the world that wants fewer visitors.

Despite our government's efforts, Hawaii is still seeing relatively strong demand from westbound visitors but still none from Japan. It's anyone's guess when eastbound travel will return in any measurable numbers. One bit of good news though is the growing number of Japanese getting vaccinated. As of September 5th, 48% of the population is fully vaccinated and nearly 60% has at least one dose.

Visitor Arrivals were Great......
Visitor arrivals were great in July and early August reaching 96% of 2019 arrivals but began falling prior to Governor Ige's request to "stay away". Arrivals dropped to 55% of 2019 at the end of August. Erik Kloninger's data shows this precipitous decline.
Very Strong July Hotel Performance but Now Caution
July hotel performance was the strongest month on record for the neighbor islands. Maui's RevPAR was over $500 which is 41% higher than July of 2019. It's a great time to own a Maui hotel. Call me if you want to buy a small one. Hotel managers must believe that there will be some pullback. Elizabeth Churchill's survey of Waikiki hotel offer rates shows a recent drop of 6.5% which is the first drop we've seen this year.
Will Air Seats be Reduced?
Air seats to Hawaii are still looking strong with September to November seats up 6.6% over 2019. Oahu is down 11%, but Maui is up 31%, Kona is up 55% and Kauai is up 43%. Given the uncertainties, we have to expect airlines will pull back on some current westbound and planned eastbound routes over the next few months.
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