Year to Date 2025 Hotel Performance

Statewide hotel performance for the first seven months of 2025 is trending downward compared to the same period in 2024. Occupancy is down one-half of a percent, average daily rate (ADR) is up two-tenths of a percent and revenue per available room (RevPAR) is down three tenths of a percent. However, significant variances persist among the islands and across different market segments. RevPAR increased by 9% on Hawaii Island and 2% on Kauai, while Oahu and Maui experienced a decline of 3% and 1%, respectively. Notably, occupancy gains on Hawaii Island and Kauai have been strong, whereas Maui continues to lag, performing worse than the first half of 2024, which was already negatively affected by the wildfires.

Luxury Still Rules!

The luxury segment continues to outperform other classes, with RevPAR up 9% year-to-date compared to last year, but these gains have been receding lately. In contrast, other market segments have declined, with upscale properties and upper midscale properties down 14% each. Smith Travel Research is reporting a similar positive trend for luxury hotels across the US. Meanwhile, on the macro level retail, fashion and airline industries are noticing US middle-class consumers are feeling strapped while high-income earners are still spending.

July 2025 Hotel Performance

In July 2025, the statewide ADR improved by half a percentage point, but a 1% decline in occupancy translated into a 1% decrease in RevPAR compared to July 2024. Hawaii Island posted a 4% gain in RevPAR, Maui saw a 7% increase (reflecting slow yet continued recovery post-wildfires), Kauai was down 3%, and Oahu experienced a 7% decline. While July was bad in Waikiki we hear that August was better.

Visitor Arrivals

Statewide, visitor arrivals decreased by 4% in July 2025 compared to the prior year. Oahu was down 6%, Kauai was up 6%, and Hawaii Island was down 5%. Maui was flat compared to June last year, but arrivals remain 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Japanese arrivals declined 1% from July 2024 and are 59% below 2019 levels. Despite these declines, arrivals are still up 1% year-to-date; however, recent monthly data indicates a downward trend.

Visitor Expenditures

Visitor spending in July 2025 closely reflected hotel performance metrics. Total expenditures were down 4%, while per person, per day was flat. Oahu spending was down 8% while Maui was flat compared to the challenging conditions following the wildfires last year. As usual Kauai (-2%) and Hawaii Island (-3%) fared better than Oahu and Maui.

Current Air Capacity to Hawaii

Total air seat capacity to Hawaii fell 4% in July and is down 2% year-to-date relative to 2024. By island, air seat capacity declined by 2% for Oahu, 4% for Maui and 6% for Kona. Seats to Kauai inexplicably had a 20% decline. For July, international air seats are up 5% year-to-date, mainly due to a 29% increase in flights from Korea. We need more Seoul!

Air Seats Outlook

Looking ahead to the August through October 2025 period, total projected air seats are expected to be flat compared to the same period last year. Domestic seat capacity is anticipated to decline by 1%, while international capacity is forecast to rise by 4%.

State of Hawaii  flat

Honolulu up 1%

Kahului down 4%

Kona down 6%

Lihue up 7%

Domestic down 1%

International up 4%

Japan down 2%

Canada  flat

Oceania down 8%

Korea up 34%

Longer Term Trends on Air Seats

Comparing the air seats to Hawaii for the year-to-date 2025 with the same period in 2019 reveals some interesting changes. Overall, the state is down 3% with Oahu gaining 2% or around 13,000 seats per month. Maui is the big loser down 16% or 39,000 seats per month. Kona is down 4% or 5,000 seats per month and Kauai is down 4% or 3,500 seats per month. Hilo is also a big loser as they used to get 3,800 seats per month but now don't get any. It is ironic that though both Kauai and Kona are down in air seats relative to 2019, they lead the state in RevPAR growth since 2019.

Data Source: Hawaii Tourism Authority & DBEDT

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